Texas Population Projections Program

The Texas Population Projections Program produces biennial projections of the population of the state and all counties in the state by age, sex and race/ethnicity. These projections are used extensively by public and private entities.

Every 2-3 years, the program also produces state and county level projections for every year from 2015 through 2050 for the following:

  • Household projections by tenure
  • Labor force
  • Enrollment in primary/secondary education
  • Enrollment in community colleges and universities

Population Projections Methodology (PDF)

Population projections prepared by the Texas Population Estimates and Projections Programs include a summary of methodology. Please carefully review the entire summary prior to using the data.

The methodology utilized by the population projections program include the following highlights:

  • Detailed projections include: a single year of age, two sexes, and 4 racial/ethnic groups (Anglo, Black, Hispanic, and Other), utilizing the cohort-component projection model.
  • Special populations, fertility rates, mortality rates, and residual migration rates are among the variables incorporated into the model

For additional information on population projection methodology, please refer to a year-specific methodology.

Data Downloads

Sex and Race/Ethnicity Total Population by Migration Scenario for 2010-2050
in 1 year increments (zipped CSV file)

Age, Sex and Race/Ethnicity (ASRE) Population by Migration Scenario