Table 3.5 Percent of Households for the State of Texas and Council of Government Regions in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections to 2040 Assuming Alternative Projection Scenarios ______________________________________________________________________ Year Anglo Black Hispanic Other ______________________________________________________________________ State of Texas All Scenarios 2000 61.4 11.4 24.2 3.0 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 57.3 11.8 27.7 3.2 2020 53.9 12.0 30.8 3.3 2030 50.6 12.0 34.1 3.3 2040 47.6 11.7 37.5 3.2 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 55.0 11.6 29.6 3.8 2020 49.2 11.6 34.7 4.5 2030 43.7 11.2 40.0 5.1 2040 38.2 10.6 45.5 5.7 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 52.7 11.4 31.5 4.4 2020 44.2 11.0 38.8 6.0 2030 36.3 10.2 45.9 7.6 2040 29.0 9.0 52.8 9.2 Panhandle Regional Planning Commission All Scenarios 2000 77.7 3.4 17.2 1.7 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 72.8 3.8 21.4 2.0 2020 68.6 4.1 25.2 2.1 2030 65.0 4.3 28.5 2.2 2040 61.9 4.4 31.5 2.2 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 71.5 3.7 22.6 2.2 2020 65.4 4.0 28.0 2.6 2030 59.6 4.1 33.3 3.0 2040 53.7 4.2 38.8 3.3 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 69.7 3.8 24.0 2.5 2020 60.7 4.1 31.8 3.4 2030 51.3 4.2 40.1 4.4 2040 41.4 4.2 49.0 5.4 South Plains Association of Governments All Scenarios 2000 67.2 5.7 25.7 1.4 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 62.3 6.0 30.2 1.5 2020 58.0 6.3 34.0 1.7 2030 54.7 6.3 37.3 1.7 2040 51.7 6.3 40.3 1.7 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 60.8 6.1 31.4 1.7 2020 54.7 6.4 36.7 2.2 2030 49.2 6.6 41.6 2.6 2040 44.0 6.6 46.3 3.1 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 59.1 6.3 32.6 2.0 2020 50.6 6.8 39.7 2.9 2030 42.5 7.1 46.4 4.0 2040 34.6 7.1 52.9 5.4 NORTEX Regional Planning Commission All Scenarios 2000 84.5 6.0 7.7 1.8 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 81.5 6.5 9.8 2.2 2020 78.7 7.0 11.8 2.5 2030 76.3 7.4 13.7 2.6 2040 74.2 7.8 15.4 2.6 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 80.6 6.5 10.4 2.5 2020 76.4 7.0 13.3 3.3 2030 72.0 7.4 16.6 4.0 2040 67.3 7.9 20.1 4.7 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 79.3 6.5 11.3 2.9 2020 72.6 7.1 15.9 4.4 2030 64.5 7.6 21.5 6.4 2040 54.8 8.0 28.3 8.9 North Central Texas Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 67.8 13.7 14.7 3.8 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 64.3 14.1 17.5 4.1 2020 61.5 14.5 19.9 4.1 2030 58.7 14.5 22.6 4.2 2040 55.9 14.4 25.6 4.1 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 61.2 14.0 20.0 4.8 2020 55.2 14.0 25.2 5.6 2030 49.2 13.6 30.9 6.3 2040 43.2 12.8 37.1 6.9 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 58.2 13.7 22.6 5.5 2020 48.7 13.2 30.9 7.2 2030 39.9 12.0 39.4 8.7 2040 31.7 10.5 47.7 10.1 Ark-Tex Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 79.4 15.7 4.0 0.9 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 76.7 16.7 5.5 1.1 2020 73.9 17.8 7.0 1.3 2030 71.8 18.5 8.3 1.4 2040 70.3 18.7 9.6 1.4 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 76.3 16.7 5.9 1.1 2020 72.9 17.8 8.0 1.3 2030 69.6 18.7 10.3 1.4 2040 66.3 19.4 12.9 1.4 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 75.5 16.9 6.4 1.2 2020 70.6 18.1 9.6 1.7 2030 64.7 19.3 13.7 2.3 2040 57.6 20.1 19.3 3.0 East Texas Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 79.2 14.9 5.1 0.8 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 76.7 15.5 6.9 0.9 2020 74.2 16.1 8.6 1.1 2030 71.9 16.6 10.3 1.2 2040 70.0 16.8 12.0 1.2 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 76.3 14.9 7.8 1.0 2020 72.7 15.0 11.2 1.1 2030 68.4 14.8 15.5 1.3 2040 63.2 14.4 20.9 1.5 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 75.5 14.4 9.0 1.1 2020 69.9 13.7 14.8 1.6 2030 61.8 12.7 23.4 2.1 2040 50.8 11.2 35.3 2.7 West Central Texas Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 81.4 3.9 13.6 1.1 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 77.0 4.6 17.0 1.4 2020 73.3 5.1 20.1 1.5 2030 70.2 5.5 22.6 1.7 2040 67.9 5.6 24.8 1.7 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 76.5 4.6 17.4 1.5 2020 71.7 5.3 21.1 1.9 2030 67.1 5.9 24.6 2.4 2040 62.7 6.3 28.1 2.9 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 75.6 4.7 18.0 1.7 2020 69.0 5.7 22.7 2.6 2030 62.0 6.5 27.6 3.9 2040 53.9 7.2 33.3 5.6 Rio Grande Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 25.3 3.2 70.0 1.5 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 21.9 3.1 73.4 1.6 2020 19.1 3.0 76.3 1.6 2030 16.7 2.9 78.9 1.5 2040 14.6 2.7 81.3 1.4 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 19.0 3.0 76.1 1.9 2020 14.2 2.7 81.0 2.1 2030 10.5 2.4 84.8 2.3 2040 7.6 2.1 87.9 2.4 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 16.4 2.8 78.7 2.1 2020 10.2 2.3 84.9 2.6 2030 6.1 1.9 88.8 3.2 2040 3.7 1.5 91.1 3.7 Permian Basin Regional Planning Commission All Scenarios 2000 63.1 4.6 31.2 1.1 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 58.0 4.8 35.9 1.3 2020 53.6 4.9 40.1 1.4 2030 49.8 4.9 43.9 1.4 2040 46.6 4.8 47.3 1.3 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 55.9 4.8 38.0 1.3 2020 48.9 4.9 44.7 1.5 2030 42.4 4.9 51.1 1.6 2040 36.3 4.8 57.3 1.6 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 53.1 4.9 40.4 1.6 2020 42.7 5.1 49.9 2.3 2030 33.1 5.1 58.8 3.0 2040 24.3 4.8 67.1 3.8 Concho Valley Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 70.8 3.0 25.1 1.1 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 65.7 3.3 29.7 1.3 2020 61.3 3.5 33.7 1.5 2030 57.7 3.6 37.2 1.5 2040 54.7 3.6 40.2 1.5 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 64.5 3.2 30.9 1.4 2020 58.5 3.4 36.5 1.6 2030 53.0 3.5 41.8 1.7 2040 47.5 3.5 47.2 1.8 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 63.1 3.2 32.0 1.7 2020 54.9 3.4 39.3 2.4 2030 46.4 3.6 46.7 3.3 2040 37.7 3.6 54.2 4.5 Heart of Texas Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 73.6 14.1 11.2 1.1 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 69.7 14.7 14.3 1.3 2020 66.3 15.3 17.0 1.4 2030 63.3 15.7 19.5 1.5 2040 60.9 15.8 21.8 1.5 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 68.2 14.5 15.9 1.4 2020 62.5 14.7 20.9 1.9 2030 56.6 14.7 26.4 2.3 2040 50.5 14.3 32.5 2.7 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 66.1 14.3 17.9 1.7 2020 57.2 14.0 26.3 2.5 2030 47.1 13.4 36.0 3.5 2040 36.4 12.1 46.9 4.6 Capital Area Planning Council All Scenarios 2000 70.8 7.2 18.5 3.5 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 67.4 7.5 21.5 3.6 2020 64.4 7.8 24.1 3.7 2030 61.7 7.8 26.7 3.8 2040 58.8 7.7 29.6 3.9 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 65.6 7.2 23.2 4.0 2020 60.9 7.1 27.5 4.5 2030 56.4 6.8 31.7 5.1 2040 51.6 6.4 36.3 5.7 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 63.9 6.8 24.9 4.4 2020 57.1 6.4 31.1 5.4 2030 50.4 5.9 37.0 6.7 2040 43.7 5.4 43.0 7.9 Brazos Valley Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 73.3 12.8 11.1 2.8 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 70.0 13.4 13.6 3.0 2020 66.7 14.2 15.9 3.2 2030 64.0 14.5 18.0 3.5 2040 61.8 14.8 19.8 3.6 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 70.1 12.7 14.1 3.1 2020 66.5 12.8 17.2 3.5 2030 63.0 12.7 20.3 4.0 2040 59.1 12.6 23.7 4.6 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 69.7 12.3 14.8 3.2 2020 65.1 12.0 19.1 3.8 2030 59.9 11.5 24.0 4.6 2040 53.1 11.1 30.0 5.8 Deep East Texas Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 79.2 14.7 5.3 0.8 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 76.4 15.5 7.1 1.0 2020 73.5 16.5 8.8 1.2 2030 71.1 17.0 10.6 1.3 2040 69.1 17.3 12.3 1.3 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 76.7 14.9 7.5 0.9 2020 73.9 15.1 10.0 1.0 2030 70.6 15.1 13.2 1.1 2040 67.1 14.9 16.9 1.1 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 76.5 14.4 8.1 1.0 2020 73.0 13.9 11.8 1.3 2030 67.9 13.3 17.0 1.8 2040 60.9 12.6 24.1 2.4 South East Texas Regional Planning Commission All Scenarios 2000 69.8 22.9 5.3 2.0 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 67.3 24.1 6.1 2.5 2020 64.9 25.3 7.0 2.8 2030 62.9 26.1 7.9 3.1 2040 61.1 26.8 8.8 3.3 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 65.3 24.5 7.2 3.0 2020 60.5 25.8 9.7 4.0 2030 55.2 26.6 13.0 5.2 2040 49.5 26.9 17.2 6.4 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 63.0 24.8 8.5 3.7 2020 54.2 26.1 13.7 6.0 2030 44.0 25.7 21.4 8.9 2040 33.0 23.6 31.3 12.1 Houston-Galveston Area Council All Scenarios 2000 57.0 17.0 21.2 4.8 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 53.2 17.2 24.6 5.0 2020 50.3 17.3 27.4 5.0 2030 47.4 17.2 30.5 4.9 2040 44.4 17.0 33.8 4.8 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 49.6 16.9 27.5 6.0 2020 42.9 16.5 33.5 7.1 2030 36.8 15.6 39.7 7.9 2040 30.8 14.4 46.2 8.6 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 45.8 16.4 30.7 7.1 2020 35.5 15.2 40.0 9.3 2030 26.8 13.3 48.5 11.4 2040 19.6 11.2 56.0 13.2 Golden Crescent Regional Planning Commission All Scenarios 2000 65.1 6.7 27.1 1.1 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 60.2 7.0 31.5 1.3 2020 56.2 7.1 35.3 1.4 2030 52.4 7.2 38.9 1.5 2040 49.3 7.0 42.2 1.5 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 59.5 6.8 32.4 1.3 2020 54.2 6.9 37.5 1.4 2030 49.0 6.7 42.8 1.5 2040 43.8 6.5 48.2 1.5 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 58.1 6.8 33.6 1.5 2020 50.5 6.9 40.5 2.1 2030 42.6 6.7 47.7 3.0 2040 34.2 6.5 55.2 4.1 Alamo Area Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 50.4 6.1 41.6 1.9 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 46.1 6.3 45.6 2.0 2020 42.5 6.4 49.0 2.1 2030 39.3 6.3 52.2 2.2 2040 36.6 6.1 55.2 2.1 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 45.3 6.3 45.9 2.5 2020 41.0 6.4 49.5 3.1 2030 37.2 6.2 52.9 3.7 2040 33.4 6.0 56.2 4.4 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 44.8 6.2 46.0 3.0 2020 40.0 6.2 49.3 4.5 2030 35.7 5.9 51.9 6.5 2040 31.3 5.6 53.8 9.3 South Texas Development Council All Scenarios 2000 7.2 0.2 92.1 0.5 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 6.2 0.2 92.9 0.7 2020 5.4 0.2 93.6 0.8 2030 4.6 0.2 94.4 0.8 2040 3.8 0.2 95.2 0.8 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 5.8 0.2 93.3 0.7 2020 4.8 0.1 94.4 0.7 2030 3.8 0.1 95.4 0.7 2040 2.9 0.1 96.3 0.7 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 5.5 0.1 93.7 0.7 2020 4.1 0.1 95.0 0.8 2030 3.0 0.1 96.0 0.9 2040 2.0 0.1 96.9 1.0 Coastal Bend Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 46.4 3.3 48.8 1.5 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 42.7 3.4 52.2 1.7 2020 39.5 3.4 55.3 1.8 2030 36.4 3.4 58.3 1.9 2040 33.9 3.3 61.0 1.8 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 41.5 3.3 53.3 1.9 2020 36.6 3.4 57.7 2.3 2030 32.1 3.3 61.9 2.7 2040 27.9 3.2 65.9 3.0 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 40.0 3.3 54.4 2.3 2020 33.4 3.4 59.9 3.3 2030 27.1 3.4 64.8 4.7 2040 21.3 3.2 69.1 6.4 Lower Rio Grande Valley Development Council All Scenarios 2000 19.7 0.3 79.2 0.8 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 15.2 0.3 83.7 0.8 2020 11.5 0.3 87.4 0.8 2030 8.9 0.3 90.0 0.8 2040 7.2 0.3 91.8 0.7 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 14.3 0.3 84.5 0.9 2020 10.2 0.3 88.5 1.0 2030 7.4 0.2 91.3 1.1 2040 5.3 0.2 93.3 1.2 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 13.6 0.3 85.1 1.0 2020 9.1 0.2 89.4 1.3 2030 5.8 0.2 92.3 1.7 2040 3.6 0.2 94.2 2.0 Texoma Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 89.5 4.9 4.3 1.3 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 87.0 5.4 5.9 1.7 2020 84.8 5.8 7.4 2.0 2030 82.8 6.2 8.8 2.2 2040 81.0 6.5 10.2 2.3 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 86.5 5.2 6.5 1.8 2020 83.2 5.4 9.1 2.3 2030 79.6 5.5 12.0 2.9 2040 75.1 5.5 15.8 3.6 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 85.5 5.0 7.4 2.1 2020 80.1 5.1 11.6 3.2 2030 72.8 5.2 17.4 4.6 2040 63.3 5.0 25.2 6.5 Central Texas Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 68.2 16.6 12.2 3.0 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 64.1 18.4 14.2 3.3 2020 61.2 19.6 15.7 3.5 2030 59.2 20.2 17.0 3.6 2040 58.1 20.2 18.1 3.6 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 61.7 19.1 15.3 3.9 2020 55.9 21.1 18.2 4.8 2030 51.0 22.2 21.1 5.7 2040 46.6 22.7 24.1 6.6 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 58.9 19.9 16.6 4.6 2020 49.8 22.4 21.4 6.4 2030 41.1 23.8 26.4 8.7 2040 33.0 23.9 31.6 11.5 Middle Rio Grande Development Council All Scenarios 2000 25.6 0.7 72.8 0.9 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 22.5 0.8 75.6 1.1 2020 19.6 0.9 78.3 1.2 2030 17.2 0.9 80.6 1.3 2040 15.2 0.8 82.7 1.3 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 22.4 0.8 75.8 1.0 2020 19.1 0.9 78.9 1.1 2030 16.3 0.9 81.6 1.2 2040 13.9 0.8 84.1 1.2 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 22.3 0.8 75.8 1.1 2020 18.8 0.9 79.0 1.3 2030 15.2 1.0 82.2 1.6 2040 12.1 0.9 85.0 2.0 ___________________________________ Sources: Derived by the authors from Texas Population Estimates and Projections Program, Projections of the Population of Texas and Counties in Texas by Age, Sex, and Race/Ethnicity for 2000-2040, 2001. U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 Summary File 1, [machine readable data files], 2001b. ______________________________________________________________________