Table 6.5 Percent of Civilian Labor Force for the State of Texas and Council of Government Regions in Texas by Race/Ethnicity of Householder in 2000 and Projections to 2040 Assuming Alternative Projection Scenarios _________________________________________________________________________ Year Anglo Black Hispanic Other _________________________________________________________________________ State of Texas All Scenarios 2000 58.4 10.7 27.5 3.4 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 54.4 11.2 30.9 3.5 2020 50.4 11.4 34.8 3.4 2030 47.4 11.2 38.2 3.2 2040 45.0 11.0 41.0 3.0 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 51.7 11.0 33.2 4.1 2020 45.0 10.9 39.5 4.6 2030 39.4 10.3 45.4 4.9 2040 34.7 9.6 50.5 5.2 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 49.0 10.7 35.6 4.7 2020 39.7 10.1 44.2 6.0 2030 31.6 9.0 52.2 7.2 2040 25.2 7.9 58.7 8.2 Panhandle Regional Planning Commission All Scenarios 2000 74.9 3.2 20.0 1.9 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 69.4 4.7 24.0 1.9 2020 65.1 5.0 28.0 1.9 2030 62.2 5.0 30.9 1.9 2040 59.9 5.0 33.4 1.7 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 67.7 4.6 25.5 2.2 2020 61.2 4.9 31.5 2.4 2030 55.6 4.8 37.0 2.6 2040 50.3 4.8 42.2 2.7 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 65.6 4.6 27.3 2.5 2020 55.6 4.9 36.3 3.2 2030 45.9 4.8 45.3 4.0 2040 36.8 4.5 54.0 4.7 South Plains Association of Governments All Scenarios 2000 63.9 5.4 29.2 1.5 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 59.9 6.0 32.6 1.5 2020 55.7 6.3 36.5 1.5 2030 52.9 6.2 39.5 1.4 2040 50.1 6.2 42.3 1.4 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 58.0 6.1 34.2 1.7 2020 51.7 6.5 39.8 2.0 2030 46.5 6.5 44.7 2.3 2040 42.2 6.5 48.8 2.5 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 55.9 6.3 35.8 2.0 2020 46.9 6.9 43.5 2.7 2030 39.3 7.0 50.1 3.6 2040 32.8 7.1 55.4 4.7 NORTEX Regional Planning Commission All Scenarios 2000 83.1 5.3 9.7 1.9 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 78.9 7.3 11.7 2.1 2020 76.1 7.9 13.8 2.2 2030 74.1 8.2 15.5 2.2 2040 72.5 8.4 17.1 2.0 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 77.6 7.3 12.6 2.5 2020 72.8 8.0 16.1 3.1 2030 68.3 8.4 19.7 3.6 2040 64.1 8.7 23.4 3.8 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 75.6 7.4 14.0 3.0 2020 67.4 8.3 19.9 4.4 2030 58.6 8.6 26.7 6.1 2040 49.8 8.7 34.0 7.5 North Central Texas Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 65.1 12.7 17.9 4.3 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 62.0 13.1 20.4 4.5 2020 58.3 13.4 23.8 4.5 2030 55.4 13.4 26.8 4.4 2040 53.2 13.3 29.3 4.2 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 58.7 12.8 23.3 5.2 2020 51.5 12.6 30.0 5.9 2030 45.3 12.0 36.4 6.3 2040 39.8 11.3 42.3 6.6 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 55.3 12.4 26.3 6.0 2020 45.0 11.6 36.1 7.3 2030 35.9 10.3 45.4 8.4 2040 28.5 8.9 53.5 9.1 Ark-Tex Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 79.4 14.0 5.6 1.0 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 74.6 16.0 8.3 1.1 2020 71.9 17.0 9.9 1.2 2030 70.7 17.3 10.8 1.2 2040 70.1 17.3 11.5 1.1 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 73.6 16.2 9.1 1.1 2020 69.5 17.3 12.0 1.2 2030 66.6 17.8 14.4 1.2 2040 64.2 18.0 16.6 1.2 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 72.1 16.4 10.2 1.3 2020 65.4 17.6 15.3 1.7 2030 59.1 18.1 20.6 2.2 2040 52.8 18.3 26.2 2.7 East Texas Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 77.8 14.1 7.2 0.9 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 73.9 15.6 9.5 1.0 2020 71.0 16.3 11.7 1.0 2030 69.2 16.4 13.4 1.0 2040 67.7 16.4 14.9 1.0 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 72.7 15.2 11.0 1.1 2020 67.7 15.2 15.9 1.2 2030 62.7 14.7 21.3 1.3 2040 57.3 13.9 27.4 1.4 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 71.2 14.6 12.9 1.3 2020 62.7 13.8 21.8 1.7 2030 52.3 12.3 33.2 2.2 2040 40.6 10.1 46.6 2.7 West Central Texas Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 78.5 3.9 16.3 1.3 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 74.5 5.6 18.7 1.2 2020 71.3 6.0 21.4 1.3 2030 69.1 6.0 23.6 1.3 2040 67.2 6.0 25.6 1.2 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 73.4 5.7 19.5 1.4 2020 68.6 6.4 23.2 1.8 2030 64.5 6.6 26.8 2.1 2040 60.8 6.8 30.1 2.3 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 71.9 5.9 20.5 1.7 2020 64.6 6.9 25.9 2.6 2030 57.3 7.5 31.4 3.8 2040 50.4 8.0 36.6 5.0 Rio Grande Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 20.4 2.6 75.1 1.9 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 18.1 2.9 77.4 1.6 2020 15.5 2.9 80.0 1.6 2030 13.6 2.7 82.3 1.4 2040 12.3 2.5 83.9 1.3 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 15.2 2.7 80.2 1.9 2020 11.0 2.6 84.4 2.0 2030 8.1 2.2 87.6 2.1 2040 6.1 2.0 89.8 2.1 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 12.7 2.5 82.7 2.1 2020 7.5 2.1 87.8 2.6 2030 4.5 1.7 90.8 3.0 2040 2.9 1.4 92.2 3.5 Permian Basin Regional Planning Commission All Scenarios 2000 60.0 4.3 34.5 1.2 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 54.2 4.7 40.0 1.1 2020 49.5 4.8 44.6 1.1 2030 46.3 4.7 48.0 1.0 2040 44.0 4.6 50.5 0.9 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 51.3 4.7 42.8 1.2 2020 43.8 4.9 50.1 1.2 2030 37.8 4.7 56.3 1.2 2040 33.0 4.6 61.2 1.2 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 47.8 4.9 45.8 1.5 2020 36.9 5.0 56.2 1.9 2030 28.0 4.8 64.7 2.5 2040 21.3 4.5 71.1 3.1 Concho Valley Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 66.6 3.0 29.3 1.1 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 63.6 3.3 31.9 1.2 2020 59.8 3.5 35.4 1.3 2030 56.9 3.6 38.3 1.2 2040 54.7 3.6 40.5 1.2 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 61.7 3.3 33.7 1.3 2020 55.7 3.5 39.4 1.4 2030 50.3 3.6 44.7 1.4 2040 46.0 3.6 49.0 1.4 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 59.4 3.3 35.7 1.6 2020 50.4 3.6 43.7 2.3 2030 41.7 3.8 51.4 3.1 2040 34.8 3.8 57.4 4.0 Heart of Texas Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 71.8 12.5 14.5 1.2 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 68.2 13.7 16.8 1.3 2020 64.4 14.5 19.7 1.4 2030 61.9 14.7 22.0 1.4 2040 60.0 14.7 24.0 1.3 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 65.8 13.5 19.1 1.6 2020 58.7 13.9 25.4 2.0 2030 52.6 13.6 31.6 2.2 2040 46.7 13.0 37.9 2.4 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 62.9 13.2 22.1 1.8 2020 51.3 13.1 33.0 2.6 2030 40.3 12.0 44.2 3.5 2040 30.7 10.4 54.8 4.1 Capital Area Planning Council All Scenarios 2000 66.8 6.8 22.6 3.8 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 64.5 7.1 24.5 3.9 2020 60.6 7.4 28.1 3.9 2030 57.5 7.4 31.2 3.9 2040 55.5 7.4 33.3 3.8 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 62.4 6.7 26.7 4.2 2020 56.4 6.7 32.3 4.6 2030 51.1 6.4 37.7 4.8 2040 46.9 6.1 42.1 4.9 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 60.3 6.4 28.8 4.5 2020 51.8 6.1 36.8 5.3 2030 44.0 5.6 44.5 5.9 2040 37.4 5.2 51.0 6.4 Brazos Valley Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 72.9 10.6 13.7 2.8 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 68.4 12.5 15.9 3.2 2020 65.1 13.3 18.3 3.3 2030 63.1 13.5 20.0 3.4 2040 61.7 13.5 21.2 3.6 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 68.0 11.9 16.8 3.3 2020 63.6 12.2 20.5 3.7 2030 59.9 12.0 24.0 4.1 2040 56.6 11.7 27.1 4.6 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 67.1 11.5 18.0 3.4 2020 60.9 11.3 23.7 4.1 2030 54.4 10.8 29.9 4.9 2040 47.9 10.2 36.1 5.8 Deep East Texas Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 77.0 14.1 7.8 1.1 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 72.8 15.9 10.2 1.1 2020 70.1 16.6 12.2 1.1 2030 68.4 16.7 13.8 1.1 2040 67.1 16.6 15.2 1.1 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 72.5 15.4 11.1 1.0 2020 68.8 15.6 14.6 1.0 2030 65.3 15.2 18.5 1.0 2040 61.7 14.6 22.7 1.0 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 71.7 14.9 12.3 1.1 2020 66.0 14.4 18.2 1.4 2030 59.0 13.4 25.7 1.9 2040 51.5 12.0 34.1 2.4 South East Texas Regional Planning Commission All Scenarios 2000 69.3 21.8 6.5 2.4 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 64.8 24.1 8.3 2.8 2020 62.1 25.5 9.5 2.9 2030 60.3 26.4 10.3 3.0 2040 58.9 27.1 11.0 3.0 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 62.2 24.4 10.0 3.4 2020 56.2 25.8 13.8 4.2 2030 50.5 26.3 18.1 5.1 2040 44.8 26.2 23.2 5.8 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 59.2 24.6 12.0 4.2 2020 48.5 25.3 19.9 6.3 2030 37.3 24.0 30.2 8.5 2040 26.9 20.9 42.0 10.2 Houston-Galveston Area Council All Scenarios 2000 54.4 16.0 24.3 5.3 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 50.5 16.3 27.9 5.3 2020 46.5 16.4 32.1 5.0 2030 43.6 16.3 35.3 4.8 2040 41.7 16.0 37.8 4.5 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 46.5 15.9 31.3 6.3 2020 38.9 15.2 38.9 7.0 2030 32.5 14.0 46.1 7.4 2040 27.5 12.8 52.1 7.6 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 42.4 15.3 34.9 7.4 2020 31.3 13.7 45.9 9.1 2030 22.7 11.4 55.6 10.3 2040 16.7 9.4 62.6 11.3 Golden Crescent Regional Planning Commission All Scenarios 2000 61.6 5.9 31.4 1.1 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 57.4 6.3 35.0 1.3 2020 53.4 6.5 38.8 1.3 2030 50.3 6.3 42.1 1.3 2040 48.3 6.2 44.3 1.2 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 56.1 6.2 36.4 1.3 2020 50.1 6.2 42.4 1.3 2030 44.8 6.0 48.0 1.2 2040 40.6 5.9 52.3 1.2 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 53.8 6.2 38.4 1.6 2020 44.8 6.3 46.8 2.1 2030 36.5 6.0 54.8 2.7 2040 29.6 6.0 60.9 3.5 Alamo Area Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 46.0 5.6 46.2 2.2 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 42.2 5.9 49.8 2.1 2020 38.7 5.8 53.5 2.0 2030 35.9 5.6 56.6 1.9 2040 34.1 5.4 58.8 1.7 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 41.2 5.8 50.5 2.5 2020 36.4 5.8 54.8 3.0 2030 32.6 5.5 58.4 3.5 2040 30.0 5.4 60.7 3.9 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 40.1 5.7 51.0 3.2 2020 34.6 5.7 55.0 4.7 2030 30.0 5.3 58.0 6.7 2040 26.9 5.1 58.9 9.1 South Texas Development Council All Scenarios 2000 5.4 0.2 93.6 0.8 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 5.4 0.2 93.5 0.9 2020 4.6 0.2 94.2 1.0 2030 3.8 0.1 95.2 0.9 2040 3.0 0.1 96.0 0.9 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 5.0 0.2 94.0 0.8 2020 4.2 0.1 94.9 0.8 2030 3.1 0.1 96.0 0.8 2040 2.3 0.1 96.8 0.8 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 4.7 0.1 94.4 0.8 2020 3.5 0.1 95.5 0.9 2030 2.5 0.1 96.5 0.9 2040 1.8 0.1 97.1 1.0 Coastal Bend Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 42.3 3.0 52.9 1.8 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 39.5 3.7 55.2 1.6 2020 36.0 3.8 58.6 1.6 2030 33.3 3.6 61.5 1.6 2040 31.5 3.5 63.5 1.5 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 37.5 3.7 56.9 1.9 2020 32.4 3.6 61.9 2.1 2030 27.9 3.4 66.4 2.3 2040 24.6 3.2 69.8 2.4 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 35.5 3.6 58.6 2.3 2020 28.3 3.6 65.1 3.0 2030 22.2 3.3 70.4 4.1 2040 17.6 3.1 73.9 5.4 Lower Rio Grande Valley Development Council All Scenarios 2000 11.6 0.4 86.9 1.1 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 10.1 0.5 88.6 0.8 2020 8.1 0.4 90.8 0.7 2030 6.6 0.4 92.4 0.6 2040 5.8 0.3 93.3 0.6 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 9.3 0.4 89.4 0.9 2020 6.7 0.4 92.0 0.9 2030 5.0 0.3 93.8 0.9 2040 3.9 0.2 94.9 1.0 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 8.5 0.4 90.1 1.0 2020 5.5 0.3 93.0 1.2 2030 3.4 0.3 94.8 1.5 2040 2.2 0.2 95.7 1.9 Texoma Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 87.9 4.8 5.7 1.6 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 85.0 5.7 7.5 1.8 2020 82.6 6.1 9.4 1.9 2030 80.9 6.4 10.7 2.0 2040 79.5 6.7 11.9 1.9 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 84.0 5.5 8.5 2.0 2020 79.9 5.6 12.0 2.5 2030 75.7 5.7 15.6 3.0 2040 71.3 5.7 19.5 3.5 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 82.6 5.3 9.7 2.4 2020 75.2 5.4 15.8 3.6 2030 66.5 5.3 23.1 5.1 2040 57.0 5.1 31.4 6.5 Central Texas Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 68.0 14.8 14.1 3.1 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 62.7 18.5 15.4 3.4 2020 59.9 19.6 17.2 3.3 2030 58.7 19.7 18.3 3.3 2040 57.7 19.7 19.4 3.2 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 59.9 19.2 16.9 4.0 2020 53.7 21.0 20.6 4.7 2030 48.9 21.6 24.0 5.5 2040 44.4 21.9 27.5 6.2 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 56.7 19.9 18.6 4.8 2020 46.3 22.3 24.8 6.6 2030 37.6 22.8 30.9 8.7 2040 29.5 22.3 37.1 11.1 Middle Rio Grande Development Council All Scenarios 2000 20.4 0.7 77.9 1.0 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 18.3 0.8 79.8 1.1 2020 16.1 0.8 82.0 1.1 2030 14.2 0.7 84.1 1.0 2040 12.5 0.7 85.8 1.0 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 18.0 0.8 80.1 1.1 2020 15.4 0.8 82.7 1.1 2030 13.2 0.7 85.1 1.0 2040 11.5 0.6 86.9 1.0 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 17.6 0.9 80.3 1.2 2020 14.7 0.9 83.0 1.4 2030 12.2 0.8 85.5 1.5 2040 10.2 0.8 87.1 1.9 ___________________________________ Sources: Derived by the authors from Texas Population Estimates and Projections Program, Projections of the Population of Texas and Counties in Texas by Age, Sex, and Race/Ethnicity for 2000-2040, 2001. U.S. Census Bureau, Census 2000 Summary File 3, [machine readable data files], 2002a. _________________________________________________________________________