Table 8.3 TANF Enrollment for the State of Texas and Council of Government Regions in Texas by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projections to 2040 Assuming Alternative Projection Scenarios ______________________________________________________________________ TANF Enrollment ____________________________________________ Year Anglo Black Hispanic Other Total ______________________________________________________________________ State of Texas All Scenarios 2000 66,215 115,626 220,165 3,281 405,287 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 65,695 114,230 255,858 3,613 439,396 2020 62,057 110,893 276,567 3,429 452,946 2030 57,212 103,029 297,246 3,213 460,700 2040 52,802 94,640 310,830 3,069 461,341 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 66,711 119,819 285,769 4,319 476,618 2020 64,124 122,598 351,515 5,073 543,310 2030 60,015 119,752 421,950 5,865 607,582 2040 56,244 115,740 495,646 6,786 674,416 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 67,744 125,651 319,685 5,164 518,244 2020 66,264 135,526 448,194 7,473 657,457 2030 62,971 139,129 601,647 10,657 814,404 2040 59,917 141,456 792,604 14,955 1,008,932 Panhandle Regional Planning Commission All Scenarios 2000 2,464 1,196 2,995 55 6,710 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 2,347 1,195 4,590 42 8,174 2020 2,247 1,239 5,100 41 8,627 2030 2,108 1,128 5,457 37 8,730 2040 1,985 1,027 5,692 34 8,738 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 2,320 1,228 4,969 47 8,564 2020 2,168 1,305 5,983 53 9,509 2030 1,973 1,224 6,887 55 10,138 2040 1,797 1,148 7,717 59 10,721 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 2,264 1,270 5,407 53 8,995 2020 2,015 1,382 7,092 71 10,560 2030 1,731 1,308 8,805 89 11,933 2040 1,465 1,225 10,537 113 13,340 South Plains Association of Governments All Scenarios 2000 1,258 1,805 5,006 13 8,082 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 1,356 1,841 6,080 27 9,304 2020 1,268 1,795 6,546 26 9,635 2030 1,159 1,664 6,869 25 9,717 2040 1,094 1,524 7,031 25 9,674 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 1,323 1,883 6,373 31 9,610 2020 1,209 1,874 7,194 35 10,311 2030 1,065 1,768 7,816 39 10,687 2040 970 1,657 8,259 43 10,929 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 1,280 1,944 6,610 35 9,868 2020 1,118 1,992 7,686 45 10,840 2030 919 1,896 8,374 57 11,246 2040 770 1,777 8,708 73 11,328 NORTEX Regional Planning Commission All Scenarios 2000 2,157 1,214 726 43 4,140 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 1,924 1,106 1,110 32 4,172 2020 1,843 1,139 1,224 29 4,235 2030 1,712 1,100 1,300 26 4,138 2040 1,596 1,053 1,342 24 4,015 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 1,910 1,141 1,229 37 4,317 2020 1,808 1,208 1,502 40 4,559 2030 1,646 1,193 1,754 43 4,636 2040 1,502 1,159 2,005 46 4,712 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 1,880 1,170 1,400 42 4,491 2020 1,717 1,270 1,936 53 4,976 2030 1,487 1,274 2,509 67 5,338 2040 1,272 1,227 3,132 83 5,713 North Central Texas Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 12,365 33,358 11,006 904 57,633 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 13,914 32,835 31,032 1,227 79,008 2020 12,851 31,735 33,546 1,148 79,280 2030 11,790 29,515 37,243 1,088 79,636 2040 10,632 26,939 39,403 1,051 78,026 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 14,461 35,414 38,517 1,488 89,881 2020 14,005 37,199 52,417 1,755 105,376 2030 13,457 37,549 71,338 2,084 124,428 2040 12,811 37,208 92,931 2,476 145,426 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 15,185 38,156 47,585 1,792 102,718 2020 15,683 43,505 80,605 2,629 142,422 2030 16,039 47,848 132,645 3,878 200,410 2040 16,372 51,892 207,277 5,649 281,190 Ark-Tex Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 2,268 3,456 167 19 5,910 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 1,983 2,981 849 18 5,831 2020 1,877 2,901 940 16 5,735 2030 1,737 2,658 1,031 15 5,441 2040 1,608 2,425 1,070 13 5,117 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 1,969 3,019 943 18 5,950 2020 1,844 2,960 1,155 17 5,976 2030 1,678 2,736 1,397 16 5,827 2040 1,520 2,517 1,587 15 5,638 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 1,934 3,040 1,077 20 6,072 2020 1,761 3,010 1,481 21 6,274 2030 1,524 2,743 1,977 23 6,267 2040 1,294 2,472 2,442 25 6,233 East Texas Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 4,884 5,953 611 39 11,487 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 4,358 5,745 2,562 46 12,711 2020 4,143 5,512 2,893 45 12,593 2030 3,804 5,086 3,246 43 12,179 2040 3,533 4,695 3,486 40 11,755 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 4,461 5,862 3,117 50 13,490 2020 4,333 5,723 4,373 55 14,484 2030 4,052 5,365 6,050 59 15,527 2040 3,806 5,026 7,995 66 16,892 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 4,535 5,950 3,824 61 14,370 2020 4,437 5,867 6,659 86 17,050 2030 4,118 5,511 11,195 116 20,940 2040 3,771 5,063 17,648 156 26,638 West Central Texas Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 3,506 981 2,372 32 6,891 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 3,284 1,038 2,919 28 7,268 2020 3,117 1,025 3,173 27 7,342 2030 2,887 938 3,308 24 7,158 2040 2,744 868 3,392 24 7,028 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 3,271 1,082 3,072 31 7,456 2020 3,079 1,112 3,509 37 7,736 2030 2,803 1,053 3,821 39 7,716 2040 2,613 1,011 4,106 45 7,774 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 3,217 1,132 3,267 35 7,651 2020 2,930 1,200 3,944 50 8,123 2030 2,541 1,167 4,413 62 8,183 2040 2,212 1,128 4,786 80 8,207 Rio Grande Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 1,292 720 26,694 65 28,771 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 1,202 721 31,217 73 33,212 2020 1,159 760 33,653 75 35,648 2030 1,091 747 35,601 74 37,513 2040 1,021 713 37,056 72 38,862 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 1,061 714 32,873 85 34,733 2020 901 746 38,244 103 39,995 2030 742 721 42,125 118 43,705 2040 611 679 45,755 131 47,177 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 928 692 34,537 96 36,254 2020 684 699 42,670 135 44,188 2030 485 643 47,580 177 48,885 2040 346 573 51,589 223 52,731 Permian Basin Regional Planning Commission All Scenarios 2000 1,918 1,319 5,193 14 8,444 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 1,916 1,230 6,564 28 9,737 2020 1,840 1,217 7,190 27 10,273 2030 1,659 1,120 7,647 26 10,451 2040 1,586 1,049 8,000 25 10,660 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 1,812 1,236 6,882 29 9,959 2020 1,636 1,218 7,919 29 10,802 2030 1,394 1,123 8,735 30 11,282 2040 1,248 1,049 9,480 29 11,806 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 1,672 1,243 7,120 36 10,070 2020 1,373 1,223 8,445 46 11,087 2030 1,062 1,103 9,379 60 11,603 2040 847 990 10,121 76 12,035 Concho Valley Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 840 238 1,277 15 2,370 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 861 227 1,871 14 2,973 2020 823 226 1,989 13 3,051 2030 742 215 2,052 12 3,021 2040 695 204 2,082 12 2,994 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 846 230 1,991 14 3,081 2020 789 234 2,246 14 3,283 2030 687 223 2,421 13 3,344 2040 625 212 2,570 13 3,419 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 826 241 2,123 18 3,208 2020 747 253 2,510 25 3,535 2030 618 249 2,782 29 3,679 2040 524 242 3,006 37 3,810 Heart of Texas Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 2,028 3,496 1,395 28 6,947 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 1,866 3,471 2,149 22 7,509 2020 1,748 3,315 2,333 21 7,417 2030 1,594 3,060 2,489 19 7,162 2040 1,487 2,829 2,573 18 6,908 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 1,877 3,574 2,561 26 8,038 2020 1,774 3,523 3,358 31 8,687 2030 1,613 3,334 4,225 33 9,204 2040 1,496 3,160 5,187 37 9,879 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 1,874 3,668 3,072 30 8,645 2020 1,748 3,693 4,821 44 10,306 2030 1,521 3,495 6,966 57 12,038 2040 1,335 3,279 9,688 76 14,379 Capital Area Planning Council All Scenarios 2000 2,730 4,239 5,818 115 12,902 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 3,095 4,358 9,388 257 17,098 2020 2,893 4,206 9,820 247 17,167 2030 2,667 3,927 10,393 232 17,219 2040 2,456 3,608 10,730 227 17,020 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 3,432 4,784 11,357 306 19,879 2020 3,580 5,117 14,681 362 23,740 2030 3,654 5,276 18,738 420 28,087 2040 3,691 5,399 23,431 493 33,014 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 3,821 5,277 13,727 364 23,189 2020 4,439 6,323 21,838 530 33,130 2030 4,972 7,338 33,479 767 46,557 2040 5,445 8,552 50,112 1,096 65,205 Brazos Valley Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 1,017 2,635 788 21 4,461 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 1,079 2,539 1,467 43 5,128 2020 1,080 2,529 1,606 44 5,259 2030 1,019 2,367 1,715 45 5,147 2040 992 2,235 1,773 48 5,048 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 1,127 2,598 1,652 45 5,422 2020 1,180 2,659 2,063 51 5,954 2030 1,145 2,521 2,480 59 6,205 2040 1,133 2,420 2,886 70 6,509 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 1,169 2,671 1,885 47 5,771 2020 1,252 2,778 2,699 58 6,788 2030 1,206 2,671 3,598 72 7,547 2040 1,158 2,546 4,565 92 8,361 Deep East Texas Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 3,880 4,022 664 26 8,592 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 3,211 3,571 1,475 22 8,279 2020 3,124 3,461 1,675 21 8,281 2030 2,923 3,150 1,860 20 7,953 2040 2,738 2,911 1,983 18 7,650 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 3,353 3,620 1,701 22 8,697 2020 3,394 3,548 2,262 22 9,225 2030 3,285 3,254 2,922 21 9,482 2040 3,161 3,027 3,629 20 9,837 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 3,474 3,675 2,003 26 9,179 2020 3,609 3,633 3,143 33 10,417 2030 3,539 3,345 4,661 42 11,586 2040 3,393 3,067 6,499 55 13,015 South East Texas Regional Planning Commission All Scenarios 2000 2,462 6,378 418 313 9,571 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 2,259 5,932 666 89 8,947 2020 2,107 5,815 720 89 8,732 2030 1,906 5,366 774 87 8,133 2040 1,719 4,960 797 84 7,559 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 2,194 6,111 846 105 9,257 2020 1,982 6,196 1,183 127 9,488 2030 1,733 5,889 1,630 148 9,401 2040 1,510 5,588 2,148 167 9,413 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 2,117 6,250 1,072 126 9,566 2020 1,825 6,470 1,919 181 10,395 2030 1,504 6,176 3,300 248 11,226 2040 1,222 5,825 5,298 324 12,669 Houston-Galveston Area Council All Scenarios 2000 8,927 34,836 14,093 1,168 59,024 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 9,557 35,461 34,663 1,239 80,920 2020 9,019 34,142 37,011 1,158 81,330 2030 8,308 31,797 40,056 1,062 81,223 2040 7,514 29,113 41,701 991 79,319 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 9,700 36,775 41,901 1,504 89,880 2020 9,305 36,932 54,343 1,762 102,342 2030 8,758 35,699 69,012 2,016 115,485 2040 8,118 33,978 84,981 2,297 129,375 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 9,898 38,068 50,678 1,802 100,445 2020 9,706 39,797 79,405 2,593 131,502 2030 9,391 39,621 115,511 3,646 168,169 2040 8,983 38,819 161,528 5,007 214,337 Golden Crescent Regional Planning Commission All Scenarios 2000 785 724 2,356 8 3,873 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 776 791 2,799 15 4,381 2020 754 786 3,057 14 4,611 2030 692 716 3,256 14 4,678 2040 646 675 3,415 13 4,749 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 771 805 2,981 16 4,572 2020 737 805 3,478 14 5,034 2030 664 732 3,911 15 5,322 2040 603 696 4,327 14 5,640 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 755 841 3,187 19 4,801 2020 692 857 3,954 21 5,523 2030 592 804 4,584 26 6,006 2040 500 763 5,154 34 6,451 Alamo Area Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 4,461 4,951 29,887 113 39,412 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 4,234 4,598 34,452 159 43,443 2020 3,952 4,446 35,579 148 44,124 2030 3,604 3,991 36,232 134 43,961 2040 3,285 3,565 35,858 123 42,831 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 4,336 4,914 37,038 195 46,483 2020 4,186 5,103 41,557 233 51,078 2030 3,939 4,917 45,154 269 54,279 2040 3,705 4,692 47,692 312 56,400 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 4,462 5,244 39,649 241 49,596 2020 4,463 5,800 47,603 371 58,237 2030 4,358 5,877 53,882 556 64,673 2040 4,264 5,838 58,520 811 69,433 South Texas Development Council All Scenarios 2000 86 7 17,020 7 17,120 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 89 13 18,548 10 18,660 2020 82 13 21,054 15 21,165 2030 74 11 23,869 18 23,972 2040 61 10 26,365 20 26,455 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 93 13 19,831 10 19,948 2020 86 13 24,779 16 24,896 2030 78 11 29,788 21 29,898 2040 66 10 35,096 24 35,195 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 98 13 21,098 12 21,221 2020 94 13 28,542 19 28,668 2030 88 11 35,424 27 35,550 2040 74 10 42,691 34 42,809 Coastal Bend Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 2,435 1,347 16,392 98 20,272 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 2,204 1,188 17,004 59 20,456 2020 2,114 1,193 17,760 63 21,131 2030 1,930 1,112 18,138 58 21,238 2040 1,797 1,013 18,143 55 21,008 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 2,194 1,231 18,302 67 21,793 2020 2,091 1,266 20,753 82 24,193 2030 1,884 1,215 22,577 90 25,766 2040 1,734 1,133 24,092 97 27,055 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 2,163 1,284 19,586 80 23,113 2020 2,003 1,380 23,757 122 27,262 2030 1,731 1,358 26,824 171 30,084 2040 1,519 1,300 29,410 226 32,455 Lower Rio Grande Valley Development Council All Scenarios 2000 745 136 67,502 36 68,419 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 682 115 35,234 50 36,081 2020 668 124 39,482 52 40,326 2030 633 113 43,787 53 44,585 2040 590 104 47,545 53 48,293 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 671 116 37,828 61 38,675 2020 634 126 46,946 77 47,783 2030 578 111 56,067 97 56,852 2040 518 99 65,349 119 66,085 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 644 125 40,433 74 41,276 2020 573 139 54,601 114 55,427 2030 479 140 68,429 171 69,218 2040 386 134 82,253 246 83,020 Texoma Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 1,371 546 134 26 2,077 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 1,258 568 566 24 2,416 2020 1,193 576 629 23 2,421 2030 1,084 534 697 20 2,335 2040 997 502 732 18 2,249 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 1,284 575 666 27 2,553 2020 1,241 585 876 33 2,736 2030 1,143 537 1,143 36 2,859 2040 1,060 499 1,409 41 3,010 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 1,304 603 788 33 2,728 2020 1,264 625 1,222 48 3,160 2030 1,144 592 1,824 62 3,622 2040 1,031 555 2,534 82 4,201 Central Texas Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 2,010 2,014 1,038 52 5,114 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 1,959 2,651 1,745 73 6,428 2020 1,881 2,683 1,872 71 6,508 2030 1,838 2,669 1,996 68 6,571 2040 1,791 2,580 2,030 68 6,470 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 1,960 2,836 2,020 88 6,904 2020 1,888 3,090 2,521 109 7,608 2030 1,796 3,256 3,060 130 8,241 2040 1,718 3,337 3,552 158 8,765 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 1,960 3,032 2,356 104 7,453 2020 1,864 3,547 3,420 158 8,989 2030 1,692 3,892 4,695 226 10,505 2040 1,532 4,112 6,076 327 12,047 Middle Rio Grande Development Council All Scenarios 2000 326 55 6,613 71 7,065 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 281 55 6,907 16 7,259 2020 272 54 7,715 15 8,056 2030 253 45 8,228 14 8,540 2040 234 37 8,631 13 8,915 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 284 56 7,121 16 7,476 2020 274 56 8,172 15 8,517 2030 249 47 8,900 15 9,211 2040 228 38 9,461 14 9,742 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 284 61 7,202 18 7,564 2020 268 70 8,242 19 8,599 2030 233 68 8,811 26 9,138 2040 202 69 9,027 30 9,327 ___________________________________ Sources: Derived by the authors from Texas Population Estimates and Projections Program, Projections of the Population of Texas and Counties in Texas by Age, Sex, and Race/Ethnicity for 2000-2040, 2001. Texas Department of Human Services, Monthly Client Files for 1999, 2000, and 2001, [machine readable data files], 1999-2001a. ______________________________________________________________________