Table 8.4 Percent Change in Projected TANF Enrollment for the State of Texas and Council of Government Regions in Texas by Race/Ethnicity Assuming Alternative Projection Scenarios, 2000-2040 ___________________________________________________________________________ Time Period Anglo Black Hispanic Other Total ___________________________________________________________________________ State of Texas Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -0.8 -1.2 16.2 10.1 8.4 2010-2020 -5.5 -2.9 8.1 -5.1 3.1 2020-2030 -7.8 -7.1 7.5 -6.3 1.7 2030-2040 -7.7 -8.1 4.6 -4.5 0.1 2000-2040 -20.3 -18.1 41.2 -6.5 13.8 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 0.7 3.6 29.8 31.6 17.6 2010-2020 -3.9 2.3 23.0 17.5 14.0 2020-2030 -6.4 -2.3 20.0 15.6 11.8 2030-2040 -6.3 -3.4 17.5 15.7 11.0 2000-2040 -15.1 0.1 125.1 106.8 66.4 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 2.3 8.7 45.2 57.4 27.9 2010-2020 -2.2 7.9 40.2 44.7 26.9 2020-2030 -5.0 2.7 34.2 42.6 23.9 2030-2040 -4.8 1.7 31.7 40.3 23.9 2000-2040 -9.5 22.3 260.0 355.8 148.9 Panhandle Regional Planning Commission Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -4.7 -0.1 53.2 -24.2 21.8 2010-2020 -4.3 3.7 11.1 -2.4 5.5 2020-2030 -6.2 -9.0 7.0 -9.8 1.2 2030-2040 -5.8 -8.9 4.3 -6.6 0.1 2000-2040 -19.5 -14.1 90.0 -37.7 30.2 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 -5.8 2.7 65.9 -15.1 27.6 2010-2020 -6.6 6.3 20.4 12.5 11.0 2020-2030 -9.0 -6.3 15.1 4.1 6.6 2030-2040 -8.9 -6.2 12.1 7.4 5.7 2000-2040 -27.1 -4.0 157.7 6.7 59.8 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -8.1 6.2 80.5 -2.8 34.0 2010-2020 -11.0 8.8 31.2 32.3 17.4 2020-2030 -14.1 -5.3 24.1 26.4 13.0 2030-2040 -15.4 -6.4 19.7 26.8 11.8 2000-2040 -40.6 2.4 251.8 106.1 98.8 South Plains Association of Governments Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 7.8 2.0 21.5 110.6 15.1 2010-2020 -6.4 -2.5 7.7 -4.8 3.6 2020-2030 -8.6 -7.3 4.9 -4.2 0.8 2030-2040 -5.6 -8.4 2.4 -1.6 -0.4 2000-2040 -13.0 -15.6 40.5 89.0 19.7 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 5.2 4.3 27.3 138.4 18.9 2010-2020 -8.6 -0.5 12.9 13.2 7.3 2020-2030 -11.9 -5.7 8.6 10.8 3.6 2030-2040 -8.9 -6.3 5.7 11.1 2.3 2000-2040 -22.9 -8.2 65.0 232.4 35.2 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 1.8 7.7 32.0 165.5 22.1 2010-2020 -12.7 2.5 16.3 29.9 9.9 2020-2030 -17.8 -4.8 9.0 27.0 3.7 2030-2040 -16.2 -6.3 4.0 28.6 0.7 2000-2040 -38.8 -1.6 74.0 463.5 40.2 NORTEX Regional Planning Commission Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -10.8 -8.9 52.9 -25.9 0.8 2010-2020 -4.2 2.9 10.2 -9.0 1.5 2020-2030 -7.1 -3.4 6.2 -8.8 -2.3 2030-2040 -6.7 -4.3 3.2 -7.7 -3.0 2000-2040 -26.0 -13.3 84.8 -43.3 -3.0 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 -11.4 -6.0 69.2 -13.4 4.3 2010-2020 -5.4 5.9 22.3 8.5 5.6 2020-2030 -9.0 -1.2 16.8 6.7 1.7 2030-2040 -8.8 -2.8 14.3 6.6 1.6 2000-2040 -30.4 -4.5 176.2 6.8 13.8 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -12.9 -3.7 92.8 -2.0 8.5 2010-2020 -8.7 8.6 38.3 26.9 10.8 2020-2030 -13.4 0.3 29.6 25.7 7.3 2030-2040 -14.5 -3.8 24.8 23.9 7.0 2000-2040 -41.0 1.0 331.4 93.6 38.0 North Central Texas Council of Governments Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 12.5 -1.6 182.0 35.7 37.1 2010-2020 -7.6 -3.3 8.1 -6.4 0.3 2020-2030 -8.3 -7.0 11.0 -5.3 0.4 2030-2040 -9.8 -8.7 5.8 -3.4 -2.0 2000-2040 -14.0 -19.2 258.0 16.3 35.4 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 17.0 6.2 250.0 64.6 56.0 2010-2020 -3.2 5.0 36.1 18.0 17.2 2020-2030 -3.9 0.9 36.1 18.7 18.1 2030-2040 -4.8 -0.9 30.3 18.8 16.9 2000-2040 3.6 11.5 744.4 173.9 152.3 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 22.8 14.4 332.4 98.3 78.2 2010-2020 3.3 14.0 69.4 46.7 38.7 2020-2030 2.3 10.0 64.6 47.5 40.7 2030-2040 2.1 8.5 56.3 45.7 40.3 2000-2040 32.4 55.6 1783.3 524.9 387.9 Ark-Tex Council of Governments Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -12.6 -13.8 408.5 -7.6 -1.3 2010-2020 -5.3 -2.7 10.7 -7.6 -1.6 2020-2030 -7.5 -8.4 9.6 -8.9 -5.1 2030-2040 -7.5 -8.7 3.8 -9.0 -6.0 2000-2040 -29.1 -29.8 540.8 -29.3 -13.4 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 -13.2 -12.6 464.9 -6.1 0.7 2010-2020 -6.3 -2.0 22.5 -6.3 0.4 2020-2030 -9.0 -7.6 20.9 -5.9 -2.5 2030-2040 -9.4 -8.0 13.6 -6.9 -3.2 2000-2040 -33.0 -27.2 850.3 -22.9 -4.6 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -14.7 -12.0 545.0 6.0 2.7 2010-2020 -8.9 -1.0 37.5 6.0 3.3 2020-2030 -13.5 -8.9 33.5 7.4 -0.1 2030-2040 -15.1 -9.9 23.5 11.1 -0.5 2000-2040 -43.0 -28.5 1362.3 34.2 5.5 East Texas Council of Governments Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -10.8 -3.5 319.3 19.2 10.7 2010-2020 -4.9 -4.0 12.9 -3.3 -0.9 2020-2030 -8.2 -7.7 12.2 -5.4 -3.3 2030-2040 -7.1 -7.7 7.4 -5.3 -3.5 2000-2040 -27.7 -21.1 470.5 3.4 2.3 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 -8.7 -1.5 410.1 29.1 17.4 2010-2020 -2.9 -2.4 40.3 9.0 7.4 2020-2030 -6.5 -6.3 38.4 8.4 7.2 2030-2040 -6.1 -6.3 32.2 10.3 8.8 2000-2040 -22.1 -15.6 1208.6 68.1 47.1 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -7.2 0.0 525.8 57.4 25.1 2010-2020 -2.1 -1.4 74.2 40.2 18.6 2020-2030 -7.2 -6.1 68.1 34.7 22.8 2030-2040 -8.4 -8.1 57.6 34.2 27.2 2000-2040 -22.8 -14.9 2788.4 298.8 131.9 West Central Texas Council of Governments Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -6.3 5.8 23.0 -13.4 5.5 2010-2020 -5.1 -1.3 8.7 -0.7 1.0 2020-2030 -7.4 -8.4 4.3 -11.8 -2.5 2030-2040 -5.0 -7.5 2.5 -1.8 -1.8 2000-2040 -21.7 -11.5 43.0 -25.6 2.0 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 -6.7 10.3 29.5 -4.3 8.2 2010-2020 -5.9 2.8 14.2 20.7 3.8 2020-2030 -8.9 -5.3 8.9 4.8 -0.3 2030-2040 -6.8 -4.0 7.5 15.3 0.8 2000-2040 -25.5 3.0 73.1 39.6 12.8 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -8.3 15.4 37.7 8.7 11.0 2010-2020 -8.9 6.0 20.7 42.4 6.2 2020-2030 -13.3 -2.8 11.9 24.9 0.7 2030-2040 -12.9 -3.3 8.5 29.4 0.3 2000-2040 -36.9 15.0 101.8 150.0 19.1 Rio Grande Council of Governments Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -7.0 0.1 16.9 12.9 15.4 2010-2020 -3.5 5.5 7.8 2.5 7.3 2020-2030 -5.9 -1.7 5.8 -2.0 5.2 2030-2040 -6.5 -4.5 4.1 -2.9 3.6 2000-2040 -21.0 -0.9 38.8 10.2 35.1 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 -17.8 -0.8 23.1 30.1 20.7 2010-2020 -15.1 4.5 16.3 21.4 15.1 2020-2030 -17.7 -3.4 10.1 14.5 9.3 2030-2040 -17.7 -5.8 8.6 11.9 7.9 2000-2040 -52.7 -5.7 71.4 102.3 64.0 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -28.2 -3.8 29.4 48.3 26.0 2010-2020 -26.3 0.9 23.5 40.1 21.9 2020-2030 -29.2 -8.0 11.5 31.2 10.6 2030-2040 -28.6 -10.8 8.4 25.6 7.9 2000-2040 -73.2 -20.4 93.3 242.6 83.3 Permian Basin Regional Planning Commission Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -0.1 -6.8 26.4 99.0 15.3 2010-2020 -3.9 -1.1 9.5 -4.7 5.5 2020-2030 -9.8 -8.0 6.4 -2.7 1.7 2030-2040 -4.4 -6.3 4.6 -5.2 2.0 2000-2040 -17.3 -20.5 54.1 75.1 26.2 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 -5.5 -6.3 32.5 106.1 17.9 2010-2020 -9.7 -1.4 15.1 -0.4 8.5 2020-2030 -14.8 -7.8 10.3 3.5 4.4 2030-2040 -10.5 -6.6 8.5 -1.1 4.6 2000-2040 -34.9 -20.5 82.5 110.2 39.8 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -12.8 -5.8 37.1 154.8 19.3 2010-2020 -17.9 -1.6 18.6 29.5 10.1 2020-2030 -22.7 -9.8 11.1 29.0 4.7 2030-2040 -20.2 -10.2 7.9 27.4 3.7 2000-2040 -55.8 -24.9 94.9 442.3 42.5 Concho Valley Council of Governments Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 2.5 -4.6 46.5 -8.0 25.4 2010-2020 -4.4 -0.6 6.3 -4.3 2.6 2020-2030 -9.8 -4.9 3.1 -8.1 -1.0 2030-2040 -6.3 -5.0 1.5 0.2 -0.9 2000-2040 -17.2 -14.2 63.1 -18.9 26.3 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 0.8 -3.3 55.9 -6.1 30.0 2010-2020 -6.7 1.7 12.8 -0.4 6.5 2020-2030 -12.9 -4.6 7.8 -7.7 1.9 2030-2040 -9.1 -5.3 6.2 0.7 2.2 2000-2040 -25.6 -11.1 101.2 -13.1 44.3 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -1.6 1.2 66.2 19.2 35.3 2010-2020 -9.6 4.8 18.3 39.1 10.2 2020-2030 -17.3 -1.3 10.8 16.9 4.1 2030-2040 -15.2 -2.8 8.0 27.5 3.6 2000-2040 -37.6 1.9 135.4 146.9 60.7 Heart of Texas Council of Governments Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -8.0 -0.7 54.1 -21.0 8.1 2010-2020 -6.3 -4.5 8.5 -2.8 -1.2 2020-2030 -8.8 -7.7 6.7 -12.5 -3.4 2030-2040 -6.7 -7.5 3.4 -5.1 -3.6 2000-2040 -26.7 -19.1 84.5 -36.3 -0.6 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 -7.4 2.2 83.6 -8.4 15.7 2010-2020 -5.5 -1.4 31.1 20.8 8.1 2020-2030 -9.1 -5.4 25.8 7.4 6.0 2030-2040 -7.3 -5.2 22.8 10.9 7.3 2000-2040 -26.2 -9.6 271.8 31.8 42.2 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -7.6 4.9 120.2 8.0 24.4 2010-2020 -6.8 0.7 56.9 45.2 19.2 2020-2030 -13.0 -5.4 44.5 29.9 16.8 2030-2040 -12.2 -6.2 39.1 33.9 19.4 2000-2040 -34.2 -6.2 594.5 172.7 107.0 Capital Area Planning Council Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 13.4 2.8 61.4 123.4 32.5 2010-2020 -6.5 -3.5 4.6 -4.0 0.4 2020-2030 -7.8 -6.6 5.8 -5.8 0.3 2030-2040 -7.9 -8.1 3.2 -2.4 -1.2 2000-2040 -10.0 -14.9 84.4 97.0 31.9 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 25.7 12.9 95.2 166.5 54.1 2010-2020 4.3 7.0 29.3 18.2 19.4 2020-2030 2.1 3.1 27.6 15.9 18.3 2030-2040 1.0 2.3 25.0 17.5 17.5 2000-2040 35.2 27.4 302.7 329.0 155.9 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 40.0 24.5 135.9 216.8 79.7 2010-2020 16.2 19.8 59.1 45.6 42.9 2020-2030 12.0 16.1 53.3 44.7 40.5 2030-2040 9.5 16.5 49.7 42.8 40.1 2000-2040 99.5 101.7 761.3 852.9 405.4 Brazos Valley Council of Governments Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 6.1 -3.6 86.2 102.7 14.9 2010-2020 0.1 -0.4 9.5 3.6 2.6 2020-2030 -5.6 -6.4 6.8 3.0 -2.1 2030-2040 -2.7 -5.6 3.4 6.3 -1.9 2000-2040 -2.5 -15.2 125.0 129.9 13.2 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 10.8 -1.4 109.6 116.0 21.5 2010-2020 4.8 2.4 24.9 13.4 9.8 2020-2030 -3.0 -5.2 20.2 14.0 4.2 2030-2040 -1.0 -4.0 16.4 18.8 4.9 2000-2040 11.4 -8.2 266.3 231.5 45.9 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 14.9 1.4 139.2 124.2 29.4 2010-2020 7.2 4.0 43.2 23.0 17.6 2020-2030 -3.7 -3.8 33.3 24.6 11.2 2030-2040 -4.0 -4.7 26.9 27.2 10.8 2000-2040 13.9 -3.4 479.3 337.0 87.4 Deep East Texas Council of Governments Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -17.2 -11.2 122.1 -15.8 -3.6 2010-2020 -2.7 -3.1 13.6 -4.2 0.0 2020-2030 -6.5 -9.0 11.1 -5.0 -4.0 2030-2040 -6.3 -7.6 6.6 -8.0 -3.8 2000-2040 -29.4 -27.6 198.7 -29.6 -11.0 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 -13.6 -10.0 156.2 -14.9 1.2 2010-2020 1.2 -2.0 33.0 -2.2 6.1 2020-2030 -3.2 -8.3 29.2 -2.1 2.8 2030-2040 -3.8 -7.0 24.2 -3.8 3.7 2000-2040 -18.5 -24.7 446.5 -21.5 14.5 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -10.5 -8.6 201.7 0.0 6.8 2010-2020 3.9 -1.1 56.9 25.9 13.5 2020-2030 -1.9 -7.9 48.3 29.2 11.2 2030-2040 -4.1 -8.3 39.5 30.5 12.3 2000-2040 -12.5 -23.7 878.8 112.3 51.5 South East Texas Regional Planning Commission Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -8.2 -7.0 59.4 -71.6 -6.5 2010-2020 -6.7 -2.0 8.1 0.3 -2.4 2020-2030 -9.6 -7.7 7.5 -1.9 -6.9 2030-2040 -9.8 -7.6 2.9 -3.9 -7.1 2000-2040 -30.2 -22.2 90.6 -73.1 -21.0 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 -10.9 -4.2 102.5 -66.3 -3.3 2010-2020 -9.7 1.4 39.8 20.9 2.5 2020-2030 -12.5 -4.9 37.8 16.2 -0.9 2030-2040 -12.9 -5.1 31.8 12.7 0.1 2000-2040 -38.7 -12.4 413.9 -46.7 -1.6 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -14.0 -2.0 156.5 -59.8 -0.1 2010-2020 -13.8 3.5 78.9 44.1 8.7 2020-2030 -17.6 -4.6 72.0 36.8 8.0 2030-2040 -18.7 -5.7 60.6 30.8 12.8 2000-2040 -50.4 -8.7 1167.6 3.5 32.4 Houston-Galveston Area Council Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 7.1 1.8 146.0 6.1 37.1 2010-2020 -5.6 -3.7 6.8 -6.6 0.5 2020-2030 -7.9 -6.9 8.2 -8.3 -0.1 2030-2040 -9.6 -8.4 4.1 -6.7 -2.3 2000-2040 -15.8 -16.4 195.9 -15.2 34.4 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 8.7 5.6 197.3 28.8 52.3 2010-2020 -4.1 0.4 29.7 17.1 13.9 2020-2030 -5.9 -3.3 27.0 14.4 12.8 2030-2040 -7.3 -4.8 23.1 14.0 12.0 2000-2040 -9.1 -2.5 503.0 96.7 119.2 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 10.9 9.3 259.6 54.2 70.2 2010-2020 -1.9 4.5 56.7 43.9 30.9 2020-2030 -3.2 -0.4 45.5 40.6 27.9 2030-2040 -4.3 -2.0 39.8 37.3 27.5 2000-2040 0.6 11.4 1046.2 328.7 263.1 Golden Crescent Regional Planning Commission Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -1.2 9.2 18.8 92.3 13.1 2010-2020 -2.8 -0.6 9.2 -9.9 5.2 2020-2030 -8.3 -8.9 6.5 -1.7 1.5 2030-2040 -6.5 -5.8 4.9 -7.6 1.5 2000-2040 -17.7 -6.8 44.9 57.4 22.6 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 -1.8 11.2 26.5 96.6 18.1 2010-2020 -4.3 0.0 16.7 -8.3 10.1 2020-2030 -9.9 -9.0 12.5 3.4 5.7 2030-2040 -9.2 -5.0 10.6 -5.1 6.0 2000-2040 -23.2 -3.9 83.6 76.9 45.6 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -3.8 16.1 35.3 131.6 24.0 2010-2020 -8.4 1.9 24.1 13.6 15.0 2020-2030 -14.4 -6.2 15.9 25.0 8.7 2030-2040 -15.6 -5.1 12.5 27.6 7.4 2000-2040 -36.3 5.3 118.8 319.6 66.6 Alamo Area Council of Governments Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -5.1 -7.1 15.3 40.7 10.2 2010-2020 -6.7 -3.3 3.3 -6.6 1.6 2020-2030 -8.8 -10.2 1.8 -9.9 -0.4 2030-2040 -8.8 -10.7 -1.0 -7.9 -2.6 2000-2040 -26.4 -28.0 20.0 9.0 8.7 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 -2.8 -0.8 23.9 72.8 17.9 2010-2020 -3.5 3.8 12.2 19.3 9.9 2020-2030 -5.9 -3.6 8.7 15.6 6.3 2030-2040 -5.9 -4.6 5.6 15.7 3.9 2000-2040 -17.0 -5.2 59.6 175.8 43.1 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 0.0 5.9 32.7 113.5 25.8 2010-2020 0.0 10.6 20.1 53.7 17.4 2020-2030 -2.4 1.3 13.2 50.1 11.1 2030-2040 -2.1 -0.7 8.6 45.7 7.4 2000-2040 -4.4 17.9 95.8 617.5 76.2 South Texas Development Council Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 3.0 87.3 9.0 46.5 9.0 2010-2020 -7.2 1.3 13.5 49.2 13.4 2020-2030 -10.5 -16.4 13.4 19.6 13.3 2030-2040 -17.3 -11.8 10.5 7.9 10.4 2000-2040 -29.3 39.9 54.9 181.9 54.5 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 8.1 88.4 16.5 48.9 16.5 2010-2020 -7.0 1.5 25.0 55.3 24.8 2020-2030 -9.5 -16.2 20.2 27.3 20.1 2030-2040 -16.2 -12.0 17.8 14.8 17.7 2000-2040 -23.8 41.0 106.2 237.9 105.6 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 14.1 88.7 24.0 69.6 24.0 2010-2020 -4.6 1.8 35.3 62.2 35.1 2020-2030 -6.4 -17.9 24.1 42.3 24.0 2030-2040 -15.9 -13.1 20.5 23.9 20.4 2000-2040 -14.3 37.0 150.8 385.2 150.0 Coastal Bend Council of Governments Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -9.5 -11.8 3.7 -39.5 0.9 2010-2020 -4.1 0.5 4.4 5.7 3.3 2020-2030 -8.7 -6.8 2.1 -7.8 0.5 2030-2040 -6.9 -8.9 0.0 -5.6 -1.1 2000-2040 -26.2 -24.8 10.7 -44.4 3.6 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 -9.9 -8.6 11.6 -31.8 7.5 2010-2020 -4.7 2.8 13.4 23.0 11.0 2020-2030 -9.9 -4.0 8.8 9.3 6.5 2030-2040 -8.0 -6.8 6.7 7.4 5.0 2000-2040 -28.8 -15.9 47.0 -1.5 33.5 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -11.2 -4.7 19.5 -18.6 14.0 2010-2020 -7.4 7.5 21.3 52.9 18.0 2020-2030 -13.6 -1.6 12.9 39.8 10.4 2030-2040 -12.2 -4.3 9.6 32.2 7.9 2000-2040 -37.6 -3.5 79.4 130.1 60.1 Lower Rio Grande Valley Development Council Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -8.4 -15.7 -47.8 38.4 -47.3 2010-2020 -2.1 7.9 12.1 5.3 11.8 2020-2030 -5.3 -8.9 10.9 0.9 10.6 2030-2040 -6.7 -7.7 8.6 0.7 8.3 2000-2040 -20.8 -23.6 -29.6 48.1 -29.4 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 -10.0 -14.8 -44.0 68.2 -43.5 2010-2020 -5.5 9.1 24.1 26.8 23.6 2020-2030 -8.8 -12.5 19.4 26.3 19.0 2030-2040 -10.3 -10.6 16.6 23.1 16.2 2000-2040 -30.5 -27.4 -3.2 231.5 -3.4 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -13.6 -7.7 -40.1 104.7 -39.7 2010-2020 -11.0 10.6 35.0 54.8 34.3 2020-2030 -16.4 0.6 25.3 49.7 24.9 2030-2040 -19.4 -4.1 20.2 44.3 19.9 2000-2040 -48.2 -1.6 21.9 584.4 21.3 Texoma Council of Governments Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -8.2 4.0 322.4 -7.4 16.3 2010-2020 -5.2 1.4 11.1 -4.7 0.2 2020-2030 -9.2 -7.2 10.9 -12.9 -3.5 2030-2040 -8.0 -6.0 5.0 -7.9 -3.7 2000-2040 -27.3 -8.1 446.3 -29.1 8.3 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 -6.3 5.3 397.3 5.7 22.9 2010-2020 -3.3 1.7 31.5 20.1 7.1 2020-2030 -8.0 -8.2 30.5 10.1 4.5 2030-2040 -7.2 -7.1 23.3 12.6 5.3 2000-2040 -22.7 -8.6 951.8 57.4 44.9 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -4.9 10.4 487.8 27.8 31.3 2010-2020 -3.0 3.7 55.2 45.3 15.8 2020-2030 -9.5 -5.3 49.2 28.8 14.6 2030-2040 -9.9 -6.2 39.0 31.4 16.0 2000-2040 -24.8 1.6 1791.2 214.2 102.3 Central Texas Council of Governments Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -2.5 31.6 68.1 40.6 25.7 2010-2020 -4.0 1.2 7.3 -2.9 1.2 2020-2030 -2.3 -0.5 6.6 -4.0 1.0 2030-2040 -2.5 -3.3 1.7 0.2 -1.5 2000-2040 -10.9 28.1 95.6 31.2 26.5 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 -2.5 40.8 94.6 69.0 35.0 2010-2020 -3.7 9.0 24.8 24.2 10.2 2020-2030 -4.9 5.4 21.4 18.7 8.3 2030-2040 -4.3 2.5 16.1 21.7 6.4 2000-2040 -14.5 65.7 242.2 203.3 71.4 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -2.5 50.6 127.0 100.5 45.7 2010-2020 -4.9 17.0 45.1 51.6 20.6 2020-2030 -9.2 9.7 37.3 42.9 16.9 2030-2040 -9.4 5.6 29.4 44.7 14.7 2000-2040 -23.8 104.2 485.4 528.6 135.6 Middle Rio Grande Development Council Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -13.9 0.2 4.5 -77.6 2.7 2010-2020 -3.0 -2.3 11.7 -6.4 11.0 2020-2030 -7.1 -16.4 6.6 -8.1 6.0 2030-2040 -7.4 -17.3 4.9 -3.0 4.4 2000-2040 -28.1 -32.3 30.5 -81.3 26.2 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 -13.0 1.3 7.7 -77.5 5.8 2010-2020 -3.5 -0.3 14.8 -3.7 13.9 2020-2030 -9.1 -15.8 8.9 -3.0 8.2 2030-2040 -8.2 -18.9 6.3 -3.2 5.8 2000-2040 -29.9 -31.0 43.1 -79.6 37.9 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -13.0 11.4 8.9 -75.0 7.1 2010-2020 -5.4 13.5 14.4 8.9 13.7 2020-2030 -13.2 -1.7 6.9 35.7 6.3 2030-2040 -13.4 0.3 2.4 16.1 2.1 2000-2040 -38.2 24.6 36.5 -57.1 32.0 ___________________________________ Sources: Derived by the authors from Texas Population Estimates and Projections Program, Projections of the Population of Texas and Counties in Texas by Age, Sex, and Race/Ethnicity for 2000-2040, 2001. Texas Department of Human Services, Monthly Client Files for 1999, 2000, and 2001, [machine readable data files], 1999-2001a. ___________________________________________________________________________