Table 8.12 Percent Change in Projected Number of Medicaid Recipients for the State of Texas and Council of Government Regions in Texas by Race/Ethnicity Assuming Alternative Projection Scenarios, 2000-2040 ___________________________________________________________________________ Time Period Anglo Black Hispanic Other Total ___________________________________________________________________________ State of Texas Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 4.0 3.7 20.2 -3.9 11.8 2010-2020 3.5 3.5 14.4 41.9 9.7 2020-2030 4.1 2.5 15.6 40.7 10.7 2030-2040 1.5 -0.4 12.7 25.4 8.0 2000-2040 13.8 9.6 79.2 140.7 46.6 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 5.7 8.5 31.5 13.7 19.1 2010-2020 5.4 8.6 27.7 71.7 19.0 2020-2030 5.9 7.4 27.1 70.5 19.7 2030-2040 3.2 4.2 24.8 53.3 18.0 2000-2040 21.8 31.9 166.5 410.3 100.2 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 7.5 13.5 44.0 34.5 27.1 2010-2020 7.3 13.9 43.0 107.6 29.9 2020-2030 7.8 12.6 40.3 106.3 30.7 2030-2040 5.0 9.1 38.5 87.3 30.5 2000-2040 30.5 58.9 300.3 978.6 181.9 Panhandle Regional Planning Commission Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -16.0 -20.6 24.8 -13.6 -0.9 2010-2020 0.4 5.5 16.8 46.7 9.2 2020-2030 0.5 2.9 14.6 34.7 8.4 2030-2040 0.2 0.2 10.8 17.6 6.2 2000-2040 -15.1 -13.6 85.2 100.7 24.5 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 -16.1 -18.4 34.2 -7.3 2.9 2010-2020 -0.1 7.9 25.9 60.4 14.2 2020-2030 -0.2 5.4 23.0 51.0 13.7 2030-2040 -1.8 2.4 19.3 32.7 11.7 2000-2040 -17.9 -5.0 148.0 198.1 49.2 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -16.9 -15.0 45.3 2.5 7.3 2010-2020 -2.4 11.3 36.7 82.1 19.9 2020-2030 -3.9 8.0 32.4 65.4 19.6 2030-2040 -7.9 4.1 27.6 47.1 17.4 2000-2040 -28.2 6.4 235.6 354.2 80.6 South Plains Association of Governments Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -1.1 -33.9 -4.2 63.6 -8.1 2010-2020 -1.6 1.2 11.9 39.8 6.8 2020-2030 -1.2 -0.4 10.0 30.5 5.9 2030-2040 0.4 -2.1 7.0 19.0 4.4 2000-2040 -3.5 -34.7 26.2 255.4 8.5 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 -2.4 -32.3 -0.3 76.0 -6.0 2010-2020 -3.3 3.5 16.5 53.2 9.5 2020-2030 -4.6 1.4 13.5 44.2 7.8 2030-2040 -4.4 -0.5 10.2 36.1 6.1 2000-2040 -13.9 -29.3 45.3 428.9 17.6 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -4.4 -29.8 3.0 97.3 -4.3 2010-2020 -7.0 7.0 19.7 70.6 11.1 2020-2030 -10.9 2.9 14.7 53.0 7.8 2030-2040 -13.8 -0.8 9.8 42.8 4.5 2000-2040 -31.8 -23.4 55.3 635.2 19.8 NORTEX Regional Planning Commission Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -19.6 -14.9 51.2 7.4 -7.7 2010-2020 -0.7 4.7 16.5 38.0 5.0 2020-2030 -0.7 2.7 14.2 33.4 4.5 2030-2040 -0.4 1.9 9.7 14.7 3.3 2000-2040 -21.0 -6.8 120.7 126.8 4.7 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 -19.5 -12.7 65.0 16.7 -5.0 2010-2020 -0.7 7.2 27.2 49.0 8.6 2020-2030 -1.8 4.4 23.4 51.4 7.9 2030-2040 -3.1 3.0 19.3 36.9 6.7 2000-2040 -23.9 0.6 208.8 260.2 18.8 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -20.1 -10.6 84.8 31.1 -1.8 2010-2020 -2.6 10.0 41.0 72.2 13.0 2020-2030 -6.1 6.0 33.9 62.3 11.5 2030-2040 -10.9 2.3 27.8 50.9 9.5 2000-2040 -34.8 6.6 345.5 453.2 35.5 North Central Texas Council of Governments Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 41.0 20.6 79.4 4.9 41.2 2010-2020 7.4 5.0 19.4 40.6 10.9 2020-2030 9.0 4.3 28.1 46.1 14.7 2030-2040 4.0 0.3 24.5 33.0 11.3 2000-2040 71.5 32.4 241.5 186.7 100.0 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 43.5 29.1 113.1 26.2 54.1 2010-2020 9.3 12.4 43.2 73.7 22.9 2020-2030 11.4 11.3 48.2 79.3 27.7 2030-2040 7.9 7.2 44.6 63.8 26.6 2000-2040 88.6 73.1 553.6 543.7 206.1 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 46.9 37.9 152.9 50.2 68.9 2010-2020 12.0 20.1 71.7 112.4 38.4 2020-2030 14.7 19.0 72.1 119.6 45.3 2030-2040 12.8 15.1 67.6 102.5 47.2 2000-2040 113.0 127.0 1152.6 1318.7 399.8 Ark-Tex Council of Governments Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -25.8 -21.6 68.2 8.2 -19.3 2010-2020 -1.5 0.7 23.0 50.6 2.2 2020-2030 -1.4 -1.9 21.6 39.4 1.5 2030-2040 -2.4 -3.3 15.8 13.7 0.2 2000-2040 -29.7 -25.1 191.1 158.5 -16.1 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 -25.4 -20.2 82.7 9.2 -17.8 2010-2020 -0.9 1.9 33.4 52.4 4.3 2020-2030 -1.7 -0.5 31.4 41.7 3.8 2030-2040 -4.5 -2.4 24.7 12.7 1.7 2000-2040 -30.5 -21.0 299.2 165.5 -9.5 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -25.5 -18.5 104.7 15.4 -16.0 2010-2020 -2.1 3.4 47.0 64.2 6.4 2020-2030 -5.5 -0.4 43.6 60.0 5.2 2030-2040 -11.8 -3.7 34.0 28.2 2.1 2000-2040 -39.2 -19.2 479.1 288.8 -4.1 East Texas Council of Governments Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -9.2 -10.0 62.5 41.4 -2.8 2010-2020 -0.4 -0.7 19.9 53.8 2.8 2020-2030 -1.5 -1.9 20.1 42.8 2.5 2030-2040 -2.1 -2.4 15.2 14.0 1.6 2000-2040 -12.9 -14.5 169.5 253.9 4.0 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 -5.7 -7.5 93.5 47.5 2.8 2010-2020 4.1 1.7 46.1 60.9 10.7 2020-2030 2.5 0.4 45.1 55.6 11.9 2030-2040 -0.5 -0.8 39.0 25.5 11.3 2000-2040 0.2 -6.3 470.5 363.4 41.7 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -2.6 -5.1 132.4 66.2 9.0 2010-2020 7.6 3.8 78.7 90.2 20.6 2020-2030 3.9 1.7 74.9 80.1 24.4 2030-2040 -3.3 -2.0 64.6 44.2 25.1 2000-2040 5.4 -1.8 1095.3 720.5 104.4 West Central Texas Council of Governments Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -34.1 -10.8 8.5 17.6 -19.1 2010-2020 -2.3 4.0 14.7 48.5 5.4 2020-2030 -2.7 2.2 10.4 33.9 3.7 2030-2040 -0.6 1.9 7.2 16.6 3.4 2000-2040 -37.7 -3.5 47.4 172.9 -8.6 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 -34.0 -7.7 13.1 25.8 -17.4 2010-2020 -2.1 8.0 19.2 57.5 7.9 2020-2030 -3.7 4.7 14.2 43.2 5.6 2030-2040 -3.6 4.2 11.2 30.2 4.8 2000-2040 -40.0 8.8 71.1 269.3 -1.4 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -34.5 -3.4 19.3 36.1 -15.4 2010-2020 -3.9 11.6 24.3 75.2 10.0 2020-2030 -7.9 7.4 17.1 55.2 6.2 2030-2040 -11.6 4.4 12.6 45.0 3.5 2000-2040 -48.8 20.9 95.5 436.3 2.3 Rio Grande Council of Governments Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -41.5 29.6 8.0 29.8 3.3 2010-2020 1.5 6.0 14.1 33.6 13.2 2020-2030 1.1 5.2 11.9 29.6 11.2 2030-2040 -1.1 0.1 9.1 13.8 8.5 2000-2040 -40.6 44.7 50.4 155.6 41.2 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 -47.0 28.9 12.0 46.1 6.4 2010-2020 -8.7 5.6 21.1 54.2 19.4 2020-2030 -10.0 3.7 16.5 47.2 15.3 2030-2040 -13.3 -1.5 13.6 30.4 12.6 2000-2040 -62.2 39.0 79.6 332.5 64.9 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -52.5 26.5 16.1 67.4 9.4 2010-2020 -19.5 2.8 27.2 70.6 24.7 2020-2030 -22.2 -0.4 19.0 60.4 17.7 2030-2040 -27.0 -7.0 15.0 43.7 14.1 2000-2040 -78.3 20.5 102.0 558.1 83.1 Permian Basin Regional Planning Commission Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -9.0 -19.7 19.9 20.5 6.6 2010-2020 2.2 2.1 15.3 54.0 10.9 2020-2030 -0.6 0.8 12.4 40.2 8.5 2030-2040 0.3 -0.3 9.7 11.0 6.9 2000-2040 -7.2 -17.6 70.4 188.9 37.1 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 -12.2 -19.0 24.9 22.6 8.5 2010-2020 -2.4 2.1 20.8 57.7 13.6 2020-2030 -5.7 1.1 16.8 44.9 11.0 2030-2040 -6.3 -1.0 14.0 12.0 9.2 2000-2040 -24.3 -17.2 101.1 213.9 49.5 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -17.0 -17.8 29.2 36.0 9.7 2010-2020 -9.5 3.3 24.7 77.8 15.2 2020-2030 -14.6 0.5 19.2 67.8 11.9 2030-2040 -17.6 -3.6 15.1 33.3 9.5 2000-2040 -47.1 -17.8 121.1 440.6 54.8 Concho Valley Council of Governments Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -24.1 -15.2 18.9 25.7 -2.8 2010-2020 -0.6 1.7 13.4 48.3 8.0 2020-2030 -1.9 2.0 10.1 35.9 5.9 2030-2040 -1.2 0.7 7.2 17.8 4.4 2000-2040 -26.8 -11.5 59.3 198.4 16.1 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 -24.2 -13.9 24.8 28.8 0.0 2010-2020 -1.3 3.1 19.1 54.1 11.4 2020-2030 -4.1 2.4 14.4 36.5 8.3 2030-2040 -5.2 0.2 11.7 19.4 6.6 2000-2040 -32.0 -8.9 90.1 223.5 28.6 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -24.4 -10.2 31.5 47.3 3.4 2010-2020 -2.7 5.4 24.3 82.6 14.6 2020-2030 -8.1 5.0 18.0 59.5 10.4 2030-2040 -12.9 1.7 13.8 42.6 7.4 2000-2040 -41.1 1.1 119.5 511.4 40.5 Heart of Texas Council of Governments Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -7.9 -20.5 61.4 67.8 -0.4 2010-2020 -2.3 -0.9 13.0 49.6 2.8 2020-2030 -2.0 -2.4 12.3 28.2 2.6 2030-2040 -1.3 -2.8 9.1 15.0 2.0 2000-2040 -13.0 -25.2 123.5 270.0 7.2 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 -6.4 -18.0 85.5 82.3 5.6 2010-2020 -0.3 2.2 32.1 67.7 11.0 2020-2030 -1.5 0.4 28.3 47.3 10.5 2030-2040 -2.8 -0.8 25.3 38.4 10.3 2000-2040 -10.7 -16.5 293.9 523.3 42.9 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -5.7 -15.4 114.3 106.6 12.1 2010-2020 -0.4 4.5 54.3 94.8 20.3 2020-2030 -4.4 1.4 45.4 61.7 19.5 2030-2040 -9.2 -1.2 40.3 55.7 19.7 2000-2040 -18.5 -11.3 574.7 913.0 93.0 Capital Area Planning Council Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 39.9 11.6 103.0 44.5 58.2 2010-2020 8.8 2.9 12.0 41.2 9.8 2020-2030 11.1 3.7 16.1 46.8 13.1 2030-2040 7.7 0.4 14.0 40.1 10.7 2000-2040 82.0 19.5 201.0 319.5 117.6 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 53.7 20.8 135.9 72.7 78.8 2010-2020 20.4 11.6 33.4 75.9 26.5 2020-2030 22.4 12.1 35.5 85.6 29.4 2030-2040 19.0 8.9 33.7 78.1 27.9 2000-2040 169.3 64.5 470.0 904.1 274.3 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 69.7 31.2 174.5 107.1 102.7 2010-2020 33.9 22.4 58.9 117.7 46.8 2020-2030 35.5 23.3 59.1 132.0 49.8 2030-2040 31.1 20.5 57.2 121.6 49.3 2000-2040 303.8 138.7 991.1 2219.4 565.4 Brazos Valley Council of Governments Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 19.2 -20.1 72.2 130.6 10.3 2010-2020 1.9 1.9 14.4 36.6 5.7 2020-2030 1.9 -0.4 14.7 35.0 5.5 2030-2040 1.7 -0.2 10.6 25.5 4.4 2000-2040 26.0 -19.1 149.8 433.5 28.4 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 25.6 -17.9 88.8 142.9 16.5 2010-2020 8.8 4.8 26.7 44.7 13.0 2020-2030 7.4 1.7 25.1 48.3 11.9 2030-2040 4.9 1.8 21.0 45.0 10.5 2000-2040 53.8 -11.0 261.8 655.8 62.7 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 31.8 -14.6 108.7 153.0 23.8 2010-2020 14.1 7.6 41.1 65.4 20.6 2020-2030 9.4 4.6 35.7 59.4 17.9 2030-2040 2.1 1.8 30.7 55.2 14.6 2000-2040 68.1 -2.2 422.3 935.6 101.8 Deep East Texas Council of Governments Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -25.8 -16.7 48.4 12.7 -16.3 2010-2020 -1.0 -0.5 19.6 35.2 2.3 2020-2030 -2.7 -4.1 18.6 28.7 0.5 2030-2040 -3.6 -4.2 12.1 12.9 -0.6 2000-2040 -31.0 -23.9 135.9 121.2 -14.4 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 -22.3 -14.8 67.9 14.5 -12.1 2010-2020 4.6 1.5 36.5 38.3 8.5 2020-2030 2.4 -2.1 35.2 30.9 7.3 2030-2040 -0.6 -2.9 28.5 11.5 5.8 2000-2040 -17.3 -17.9 298.4 131.0 8.3 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -19.1 -12.2 94.0 24.2 -7.3 2010-2020 9.4 3.6 57.8 56.0 15.7 2020-2030 5.3 -0.5 54.0 62.4 14.9 2030-2040 -1.7 -3.4 43.9 39.3 12.2 2000-2040 -8.4 -12.5 578.5 338.3 38.3 South East Texas Regional Planning Commission Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -11.0 -14.5 96.1 -72.1 -9.9 2010-2020 -0.4 1.9 13.9 34.0 2.7 2020-2030 -0.2 -0.3 16.6 37.7 2.3 2030-2040 -1.3 -2.0 10.6 22.6 0.4 2000-2040 -12.7 -14.9 187.9 -37.0 -4.9 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 -12.4 -11.8 139.8 -67.8 -6.6 2010-2020 -2.2 5.3 41.7 53.9 7.9 2020-2030 -2.7 2.5 42.2 62.7 8.5 2030-2040 -4.8 0.1 34.4 45.0 7.3 2000-2040 -20.6 -4.8 549.5 16.9 17.4 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -14.4 -9.5 193.9 -62.6 -3.2 2010-2020 -5.9 7.5 77.2 77.7 14.6 2020-2030 -8.2 3.4 72.5 88.6 18.0 2030-2040 -12.6 -0.6 60.8 68.7 20.0 2000-2040 -35.4 0.0 1344.5 111.6 57.0 Houston-Galveston Area Council Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 41.6 7.4 96.7 -14.8 43.0 2010-2020 6.8 3.9 13.5 42.6 9.5 2020-2030 6.9 3.1 20.1 38.3 12.6 2030-2040 1.7 -0.4 15.9 21.5 8.6 2000-2040 64.4 14.6 210.9 104.1 91.6 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 41.6 11.1 124.0 3.5 53.9 2010-2020 6.1 8.2 33.3 76.2 21.0 2020-2030 6.1 7.2 33.9 69.5 22.7 2030-2040 1.2 3.3 30.7 48.2 20.4 2000-2040 61.4 33.1 422.6 358.2 175.1 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 41.9 14.6 155.4 24.1 66.2 2010-2020 5.6 12.3 56.8 114.2 35.5 2020-2030 5.7 11.2 49.1 105.1 35.7 2030-2040 1.3 7.3 45.2 79.1 34.6 2000-2040 60.5 53.6 767.0 876.6 311.2 Golden Crescent Regional Planning Commission Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -6.8 -23.3 15.3 -26.0 1.6 2010-2020 -0.2 3.1 13.8 59.9 8.5 2020-2030 -2.0 0.1 11.7 49.8 6.9 2030-2040 -1.9 -2.2 8.5 17.5 4.8 2000-2040 -10.6 -22.6 58.8 108.2 23.5 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 -6.2 -21.5 21.3 -23.9 5.2 2010-2020 -0.1 4.1 20.3 60.6 12.7 2020-2030 -2.1 0.4 17.1 54.2 10.6 2030-2040 -4.0 -1.9 13.8 17.3 8.3 2000-2040 -11.9 -19.5 94.6 121.2 42.0 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -6.6 -17.7 28.3 -17.5 9.3 2010-2020 -2.2 6.9 26.8 75.0 16.6 2020-2030 -5.8 3.4 20.9 95.5 13.3 2030-2040 -11.4 -2.0 16.3 59.4 9.6 2000-2040 -23.7 -11.0 128.5 350.0 58.2 Alamo Area Council of Governments Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 2.9 8.9 26.4 39.9 19.7 2010-2020 0.0 2.5 9.8 40.1 7.5 2020-2030 1.1 1.1 9.1 35.8 7.2 2030-2040 -1.1 -1.9 5.4 19.5 3.9 2000-2040 2.9 10.8 59.7 218.1 43.4 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 6.4 16.3 34.1 64.9 26.5 2010-2020 4.1 9.0 17.4 65.2 14.5 2020-2030 5.1 7.1 15.3 60.7 13.4 2030-2040 1.6 2.9 11.2 45.4 9.5 2000-2040 18.4 39.6 101.7 536.8 79.8 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 10.4 23.9 41.8 93.6 33.6 2010-2020 8.9 15.1 24.2 97.6 21.2 2020-2030 10.4 12.0 20.3 91.3 18.8 2030-2040 5.6 5.9 14.8 78.2 13.9 2000-2040 40.1 69.1 143.4 1203.9 119.0 South Texas Development Council Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -85.8 29.7 -10.9 61.0 -15.8 2010-2020 -1.7 18.9 17.6 78.0 17.4 2020-2030 2.3 26.8 16.0 51.9 15.9 2030-2040 0.3 15.4 13.8 24.2 13.7 2000-2040 -85.7 125.7 38.3 440.5 30.4 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 -85.4 29.5 -5.7 64.2 -10.9 2010-2020 -0.3 16.9 27.7 82.5 27.5 2020-2030 2.8 26.2 23.7 56.6 23.6 2030-2040 -0.4 14.0 21.4 28.0 21.3 2000-2040 -85.1 117.8 80.8 500.7 70.2 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -84.7 30.4 -0.5 80.6 -6.0 2010-2020 1.0 17.2 37.0 95.6 36.7 2020-2030 1.1 23.0 29.5 94.3 29.4 2030-2040 -5.7 6.9 25.8 59.3 25.7 2000-2040 -85.3 101.0 122.1 993.5 108.9 Coastal Bend Council of Governments Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -34.4 -15.0 -7.9 -10.8 -13.9 2010-2020 1.2 1.2 9.8 45.5 8.1 2020-2030 -0.1 0.0 7.7 32.7 6.3 2030-2040 -1.1 -2.9 4.5 15.2 3.5 2000-2040 -34.4 -16.5 13.8 98.4 2.4 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 -34.2 -11.9 -2.2 -2.7 -9.5 2010-2020 1.7 4.0 17.4 64.5 14.5 2020-2030 -0.6 2.6 14.1 55.1 11.8 2030-2040 -2.6 -0.6 10.5 33.6 8.7 2000-2040 -35.2 -6.5 44.6 231.5 25.9 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -34.4 -7.8 3.4 13.3 -5.2 2010-2020 0.5 8.9 24.3 92.4 20.4 2020-2030 -3.4 6.3 18.9 85.1 16.2 2030-2040 -7.9 2.7 13.9 60.5 11.9 2000-2040 -41.4 9.7 74.1 547.3 48.5 Lower Rio Grande Valley Development Council Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -57.1 9.2 -22.8 45.5 -25.2 2010-2020 -2.5 13.9 17.6 45.2 16.8 2020-2030 -7.6 8.5 15.2 42.6 14.4 2030-2040 -6.3 0.0 13.2 19.7 12.6 2000-2040 -63.8 34.8 18.4 260.6 12.6 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 -57.6 10.6 -17.8 62.2 -20.6 2010-2020 -2.7 14.5 28.1 69.6 27.0 2020-2030 -6.3 5.3 24.3 72.2 23.4 2030-2040 -7.5 -2.6 21.5 47.6 20.9 2000-2040 -64.2 29.9 59.2 599.2 50.5 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -58.4 16.9 -12.7 90.6 -15.9 2010-2020 -3.5 17.7 37.7 107.0 36.3 2020-2030 -7.4 14.4 31.8 95.7 30.9 2030-2040 -15.0 1.4 27.2 68.5 26.5 2000-2040 -68.4 59.6 101.6 1201.5 89.9 Texoma Council of Governments Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -8.9 -2.4 75.7 10.3 -0.6 2010-2020 -0.3 3.6 20.4 39.8 3.8 2020-2030 -1.1 1.7 19.7 31.4 3.4 2030-2040 -1.7 -0.8 14.5 17.7 2.0 2000-2040 -11.7 2.0 190.2 138.4 8.9 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 -6.1 -0.8 101.6 17.8 4.0 2010-2020 3.0 4.6 38.0 49.9 9.5 2020-2030 1.6 1.4 37.3 41.9 9.5 2030-2040 -0.7 -1.5 32.5 34.0 8.4 2000-2040 -2.4 3.7 405.6 235.6 35.2 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -3.8 3.9 133.1 32.9 9.3 2010-2020 4.6 8.5 59.8 77.6 15.9 2020-2030 0.7 3.7 56.0 59.7 15.8 2030-2040 -5.2 -1.6 48.6 49.7 14.5 2000-2040 -3.9 15.1 763.3 464.5 68.1 Central Texas Council of Governments Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 11.4 37.2 71.3 56.5 31.5 2010-2020 1.4 8.9 12.1 44.6 7.1 2020-2030 4.8 10.2 14.7 40.0 9.8 2030-2040 4.6 7.2 11.0 18.4 7.6 2000-2040 23.9 76.5 144.5 275.1 66.5 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 12.4 45.0 91.8 78.4 38.6 2010-2020 2.6 17.7 26.5 73.2 15.0 2020-2030 4.1 18.5 26.9 65.0 17.0 2030-2040 3.4 16.0 24.3 42.3 15.6 2000-2040 24.2 134.6 282.7 625.0 115.6 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 13.0 53.3 116.0 107.7 46.5 2010-2020 2.4 26.7 43.1 100.1 23.5 2020-2030 0.6 25.7 40.3 89.2 24.6 2030-2040 -2.4 22.2 37.1 71.0 23.8 2000-2040 13.7 198.3 494.8 1245.1 179.0 Middle Rio Grande Development Council Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -63.4 1.2 -21.9 -76.1 -27.2 2010-2020 -1.2 7.0 13.6 40.6 12.7 2020-2030 -1.9 9.6 9.4 40.9 8.9 2030-2040 -3.4 -0.8 7.5 32.2 7.0 2000-2040 -65.7 17.7 4.3 -37.5 -4.6 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 -62.7 1.8 -19.6 -75.5 -25.2 2010-2020 -0.2 6.3 16.6 38.9 15.6 2020-2030 -2.5 9.4 12.2 43.4 11.5 2030-2040 -5.4 -1.1 9.4 30.0 8.7 2000-2040 -65.7 17.0 15.1 -36.6 4.8 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -62.3 8.1 -18.1 -73.6 -23.7 2010-2020 -1.1 15.6 17.5 47.9 16.4 2020-2030 -6.3 19.5 12.2 49.0 11.4 2030-2040 -13.1 4.9 7.5 46.6 6.7 2000-2040 -69.7 56.7 16.1 -14.8 5.6 ___________________________________ Sources: Derived by the authors from Texas Population Estimates and Projections Program, Projections of the Population of Texas and Counties in Texas by Age, Sex, and Race/Ethnicity for 2000-2040, 2001. Texas Department of Human Services, Monthly Client Files for 1999, 2000, and 2001, [machine readable data files], 1999-2001b. ___________________________________________________________________________