Table 9.4 Texas Youth Commission Population by Race/Ethnicity for the State of Texas and Council of Government Regions in Texas in 2000 and Projections to 2040 Assuming Alternative Projection Scenarios ______________________________________________________________________ Year Anglo Black Hispanic Other Total ______________________________________________________________________ State of Texas All Scenarios 2000 1,978 2,925 3,358 342 8,603 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 1,892 3,068 3,420 330 8,710 2020 1,781 2,686 3,983 376 8,826 2030 1,656 2,530 4,071 304 8,561 2040 1,485 2,294 4,303 277 8,359 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 1,930 3,302 3,960 415 9,607 2020 1,826 2,997 4,840 532 10,195 2030 1,733 2,990 5,792 550 11,065 2040 1,585 2,853 6,735 598 11,771 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 1,969 3,554 4,582 529 10,634 2020 1,876 3,347 5,868 730 11,821 2030 1,814 3,532 8,220 958 14,524 2040 1,689 3,557 10,592 1,280 17,118 Panhandle Regional Planning Commission All Scenarios 2000 59 35 82 10 186 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 53 45 99 11 208 2020 51 40 110 11 212 2030 54 33 121 10 218 2040 48 34 111 6 199 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 54 48 112 15 229 2020 51 36 128 11 226 2030 48 37 141 16 242 2040 48 34 169 14 265 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 47 47 117 20 231 2020 52 41 138 18 249 2030 44 45 172 20 281 2040 33 37 202 23 295 South Plains Association of Governments All Scenarios 2000 31 39 119 18 207 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 27 37 120 9 193 2020 27 29 134 16 206 2030 33 33 136 9 211 2040 19 30 142 10 201 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 28 36 124 13 201 2020 27 34 125 19 205 2030 21 33 146 15 215 2040 24 32 159 19 234 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 31 33 124 18 206 2020 20 35 142 25 222 2030 18 35 158 25 236 2040 23 30 151 29 233 NORTEX Regional Planning Commission All Scenarios 2000 32 18 5 1 56 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 30 22 13 1 66 2020 32 19 8 4 63 2030 31 18 14 1 64 2040 30 21 9 3 63 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 33 25 12 4 74 2020 29 21 25 3 78 2030 31 24 13 2 70 2040 24 19 17 1 61 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 31 20 16 4 71 2020 29 20 16 3 68 2030 26 25 29 5 85 2040 21 17 25 10 73 North Central Texas Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 553 830 526 55 1,964 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 518 850 474 63 1,905 2020 485 758 582 67 1,892 2030 429 696 579 50 1,754 2040 390 636 659 45 1,730 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 529 951 587 75 2,142 2020 501 895 855 103 2,354 2030 470 924 1,071 102 2,567 2040 444 906 1,425 107 2,882 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 533 1,055 762 97 2,447 2020 517 1,079 1,227 143 2,966 2030 518 1,192 1,918 175 3,803 2040 498 1,293 2,939 250 4,980 Ark-Tex Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 50 53 3 0 106 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 53 64 9 4 130 2020 51 49 15 1 116 2030 46 53 15 1 115 2040 32 42 10 1 85 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 52 59 15 1 127 2020 52 64 11 2 129 2030 57 47 13 0 117 2040 38 51 17 2 108 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 50 70 16 3 139 2020 42 61 16 2 121 2030 37 56 25 1 119 2040 31 48 18 1 98 East Texas Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 166 193 64 11 434 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 133 178 63 8 382 2020 115 156 71 6 348 2030 122 162 93 5 382 2040 91 131 105 8 335 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 138 182 99 7 426 2020 109 160 117 16 402 2030 127 165 169 13 474 2040 102 148 216 12 478 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 149 196 137 8 490 2020 127 183 179 15 504 2030 131 171 279 24 605 2040 114 157 442 23 736 West Central Texas Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 58 16 50 3 127 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 62 37 54 5 158 2020 54 28 67 5 154 2030 56 36 63 3 158 2040 42 25 65 4 136 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 56 40 60 6 162 2020 58 33 68 2 161 2030 51 35 72 5 163 2040 44 31 67 8 150 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 47 50 60 2 159 2020 49 39 63 6 157 2030 47 31 84 4 166 2040 36 29 88 7 160 Rio Grande Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 7 15 103 10 135 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 10 18 115 12 155 2020 14 14 130 16 174 2030 10 15 138 12 175 2040 11 15 142 9 177 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 9 18 120 14 161 2020 9 13 127 14 163 2030 7 17 164 19 207 2040 5 16 160 22 203 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 12 15 130 17 174 2020 5 12 135 22 174 2030 9 17 168 29 223 2040 5 13 160 33 211 Permian Basin Regional Planning Commission All Scenarios 2000 19 18 49 5 91 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 25 36 75 8 144 2020 26 27 82 6 141 2030 24 25 81 5 135 2040 21 23 84 7 135 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 20 25 65 8 118 2020 24 27 76 11 138 2030 19 17 95 9 140 2040 24 20 94 8 146 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 17 29 81 16 143 2020 22 25 72 17 136 2030 13 29 94 18 154 2040 19 25 90 18 152 Concho Valley Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 17 5 24 2 48 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 15 7 26 0 48 2020 21 7 35 0 63 2030 13 8 32 0 53 2040 18 7 36 0 61 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 19 8 29 1 57 2020 19 6 38 4 67 2030 16 8 36 0 60 2040 12 7 33 1 53 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 17 12 32 3 64 2020 15 8 31 1 55 2030 12 6 41 5 64 2040 9 7 36 5 57 Heart of Texas Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 20 16 16 0 52 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 31 38 26 2 97 2020 30 32 29 2 93 2030 30 30 26 3 89 2040 27 24 28 1 80 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 31 38 27 1 97 2020 29 39 42 3 113 2030 26 38 47 5 116 2040 23 35 56 2 116 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 22 41 31 3 97 2020 28 37 41 4 110 2030 27 39 78 9 153 2040 26 33 99 7 165 Capital Area Planning Council All Scenarios 2000 121 203 276 36 636 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 113 191 236 32 572 2020 108 177 302 42 629 2030 91 159 289 27 566 2040 95 150 301 23 569 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 121 210 281 43 655 2020 130 209 407 60 806 2030 126 205 477 54 862 2040 126 209 587 54 976 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 133 240 346 50 769 2020 152 248 551 79 1,030 2030 164 278 812 83 1,337 2040 170 314 1,141 100 1,725 Brazos Valley Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 24 60 31 1 116 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 37 58 27 2 124 2020 38 54 33 3 128 2030 33 55 30 5 123 2040 27 51 39 6 123 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 25 62 38 4 129 2020 30 62 45 9 146 2030 32 58 53 8 151 2040 26 49 61 9 145 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 32 72 38 6 148 2020 28 56 53 6 143 2030 26 70 61 7 164 2040 27 65 74 8 174 Deep East Texas Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 71 58 16 0 145 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 69 75 19 1 164 2020 72 60 16 0 148 2030 61 52 20 0 133 2040 54 39 22 0 115 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 74 72 15 0 161 2020 72 63 31 1 167 2030 66 61 37 0 164 2040 64 51 50 0 165 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 79 80 27 1 187 2020 85 56 38 0 179 2030 75 67 59 0 201 2040 64 66 76 2 208 South East Texas Regional Planning Commission All Scenarios 2000 41 143 9 10 203 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 38 126 13 8 185 2020 37 111 16 4 168 2030 34 104 14 10 162 2040 23 94 21 8 146 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 39 135 19 13 206 2020 34 105 22 13 174 2030 30 116 33 14 193 2040 22 105 42 21 190 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 38 136 24 16 214 2020 38 126 37 19 220 2030 30 127 59 25 241 2040 26 116 90 31 263 Houston-Galveston Area Council All Scenarios 2000 419 934 624 53 2,030 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 416 973 618 48 2,055 2020 362 861 746 59 2,028 2030 333 797 739 51 1,920 2040 324 726 798 45 1,893 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 431 1,037 758 63 2,289 2020 387 931 956 86 2,360 2030 360 896 1,202 89 2,547 2040 340 843 1,436 92 2,711 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 438 1,093 910 80 2,521 2020 398 994 1,206 111 2,709 2030 379 987 1,835 141 3,342 2040 367 950 2,451 177 3,945 Golden Crescent Regional Planning Commission All Scenarios 2000 15 27 72 6 120 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 14 33 69 1 117 2020 13 23 77 3 116 2030 9 30 82 3 124 2040 16 24 83 3 126 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 19 44 73 2 138 2020 16 24 80 2 122 2030 9 31 87 2 129 2040 9 26 95 3 133 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 19 37 79 2 137 2020 20 26 86 2 134 2030 15 31 107 5 158 2040 14 31 109 10 164 Alamo Area Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 131 146 701 64 1,042 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 116 145 669 48 978 2020 114 116 713 54 997 2030 109 108 732 37 986 2040 91 106 718 32 947 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 124 149 728 63 1,064 2020 114 128 782 76 1,100 2030 111 133 853 81 1,178 2040 106 136 890 84 1,216 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 133 173 770 85 1,161 2020 118 151 845 110 1,224 2030 128 166 989 168 1,451 2040 125 166 1,029 235 1,555 South Texas Development Council All Scenarios 2000 1 0 67 2 70 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 2 0 98 8 108 2020 2 0 120 11 133 2030 3 1 125 17 146 2040 2 0 148 15 165 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 3 2 106 7 118 2020 3 1 119 13 136 2030 2 0 149 20 171 2040 1 0 170 26 197 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 4 1 110 10 125 2020 2 2 130 16 150 2030 1 0 171 30 202 2040 1 0 198 37 236 Coastal Bend Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 46 25 248 30 349 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 36 29 250 29 344 2020 40 25 270 31 366 2030 39 30 275 31 375 2040 36 22 281 22 361 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 36 43 285 34 398 2020 39 33 315 37 424 2030 35 36 356 42 469 2040 29 31 368 51 479 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 41 33 324 45 443 2020 38 35 343 60 476 2030 32 32 416 92 572 2040 22 31 443 127 623 Lower Rio Grande Valley Development Council All Scenarios 2000 9 0 205 20 234 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 7 4 246 22 279 2020 4 4 308 25 341 2030 10 3 342 15 370 2040 14 4 363 18 399 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 10 6 293 27 336 2020 8 5 344 35 392 2030 4 5 410 41 460 2040 3 3 459 46 511 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 9 3 332 32 376 2020 12 2 368 53 435 2030 3 9 481 70 563 2040 3 6 522 107 638 Texoma Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 28 22 2 0 52 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 28 25 8 1 62 2020 20 20 14 0 54 2030 21 18 9 1 49 2040 20 23 9 2 54 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 25 21 9 2 57 2020 23 24 12 0 59 2030 23 20 13 0 56 2040 17 16 17 2 52 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 24 27 7 0 58 2020 22 27 20 1 70 2030 21 19 19 2 61 2040 15 21 26 7 69 Central Texas Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 58 65 31 4 158 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 55 71 31 4 161 2020 59 71 42 8 180 2030 59 60 41 6 166 2040 50 64 45 8 167 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 51 84 40 10 185 2020 59 79 47 9 194 2030 57 80 66 12 215 2040 49 81 65 12 207 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 59 83 45 7 194 2020 55 80 62 11 208 2030 56 93 80 19 248 2040 36 94 103 27 260 Middle Rio Grande Development Council All Scenarios 2000 2 4 35 1 42 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 4 6 62 3 75 2020 6 5 63 2 76 2030 6 4 75 2 87 2040 4 3 84 1 92 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 3 7 65 2 77 2020 3 5 68 3 79 2030 5 4 89 1 99 2040 5 4 82 2 93 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 4 8 64 4 80 2020 2 4 69 6 81 2030 2 7 85 1 95 2040 4 8 80 6 98 ___________________________________ Source: Derived by the authors from Texas Population Estimates and Projections Program, Projections of the Population of Texas and Counties in Texas by Age, Sex, and Race/Ethnicity for 2000-2040, 2001. Texas Youth Commission, On-Hand Populations, 1995-2001, [machine readable data files], 2002a. ______________________________________________________________________