Table 9.5 Percent Change in the Projected Texas Youth Commission Population by Race/Ethnicity for the State of Texas and Council of Government Regions in Texas in 2000 and Projections to 2040 Assuming Alternative Projection Scenarios ______________________________________________________________________ Time Period Anglo Black Hispanic Other Total ______________________________________________________________________ State of Texas Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -4.3 4.9 1.8 -3.5 1.2 2010-2020 -5.9 -12.5 16.5 13.9 1.3 2020-2030 -7.0 -5.8 2.2 -19.1 -3.0 2030-2040 -10.3 -9.3 5.7 -8.9 -2.4 2000-2040 -24.9 -21.6 28.1 -19.0 -2.8 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 -2.4 12.9 17.9 21.3 11.7 2010-2020 -5.4 -9.2 22.2 28.2 6.1 2020-2030 -5.1 -0.2 19.7 3.4 8.5 2030-2040 -8.5 -4.6 16.3 8.7 6.4 2000-2040 -19.9 -2.5 100.6 74.9 36.8 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -0.5 21.5 36.5 54.7 23.6 2010-2020 -4.7 -5.8 28.1 38.0 11.2 2020-2030 -3.3 5.5 40.1 31.2 22.9 2030-2040 -6.9 0.7 28.9 33.6 17.9 2000-2040 -14.6 21.6 215.4 274.3 99.0 Panhandle Regional Planning Commission Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -10.2 28.6 20.7 10.0 11.8 2010-2020 -3.8 -11.1 11.1 0.0 1.9 2020-2030 5.9 -17.5 10.0 -9.1 2.8 2030-2040 -11.1 3.0 -8.3 -40.0 -8.7 2000-2040 -18.6 -2.9 35.4 -40.0 7.0 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 -8.5 37.1 36.6 50.0 23.1 2010-2020 -5.6 -25.0 14.3 -26.7 -1.3 2020-2030 -5.9 2.8 10.2 45.5 7.1 2030-2040 0.0 -8.1 19.9 -12.5 9.5 2000-2040 -18.6 -2.9 106.1 40.0 42.5 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -20.3 34.3 42.7 100.0 24.2 2010-2020 10.6 -12.8 17.9 -10.0 7.8 2020-2030 -15.4 9.8 24.6 11.1 12.9 2030-2040 -25.0 -17.8 17.4 15.0 5.0 2000-2040 -44.1 5.7 146.3 130.0 58.6 South Plains Association of Governments Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -12.9 -5.1 0.8 -50.0 -6.8 2010-2020 0.0 -21.6 11.7 77.8 6.7 2020-2030 22.2 13.8 1.5 -43.8 2.4 2030-2040 -42.4 -9.1 4.4 11.1 -4.7 2000-2040 -38.7 -23.1 19.3 -44.4 -2.9 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 -9.7 -7.7 4.2 -27.8 -2.9 2010-2020 -3.6 -5.6 0.8 46.2 2.0 2020-2030 -22.2 -2.9 16.8 -21.1 4.9 2030-2040 14.3 -3.0 8.9 26.7 8.8 2000-2040 -22.6 -17.9 33.6 5.6 13.0 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 0.0 -15.4 4.2 0.0 -0.5 2010-2020 -35.5 6.1 14.5 38.9 7.8 2020-2030 -10.0 0.0 11.3 0.0 6.3 2030-2040 27.8 -14.3 -4.4 16.0 -1.3 2000-2040 -25.8 -23.1 26.9 61.1 12.6 NORTEX Regional Planning Commission Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -6.3 22.2 160.0 0.0 17.9 2010-2020 6.7 -13.6 -38.5 300.0 -4.5 2020-2030 -3.1 -5.3 75.0 -75.0 1.6 2030-2040 -3.2 16.7 -35.7 200.0 -1.6 2000-2040 -6.3 16.7 80.0 200.0 12.5 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 3.1 38.9 140.0 300.0 32.1 2010-2020 -12.1 -16.0 108.3 -25.0 5.4 2020-2030 6.9 14.3 -48.0 -33.3 -10.3 2030-2040 -22.6 -20.8 30.8 -50.0 -12.9 2000-2040 -25.0 5.6 240.0 0.0 8.9 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -3.1 11.1 220.0 300.0 26.8 2010-2020 -6.5 0.0 0.0 -25.0 -4.2 2020-2030 -10.3 25.0 81.3 66.7 25.0 2030-2040 -19.2 -32.0 -13.8 100.0 -14.1 2000-2040 -34.4 -5.6 400.0 900.0 30.4 North Central Texas Council of Governments Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -6.3 2.4 -9.9 14.5 -3.0 2010-2020 -6.4 -10.8 22.8 6.3 -0.7 2020-2030 -11.5 -8.2 -0.5 -25.4 -7.3 2030-2040 -9.1 -8.6 13.8 -10.0 -1.4 2000-2040 -29.5 -23.4 25.3 -18.2 -11.9 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 -4.3 14.6 11.6 36.4 9.1 2010-2020 -5.3 -5.9 45.7 37.3 9.9 2020-2030 -6.2 3.2 25.3 -1.0 9.0 2030-2040 -5.5 -1.9 33.1 4.9 12.3 2000-2040 -19.7 9.2 170.9 94.5 46.7 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -3.6 27.1 44.9 76.4 24.6 2010-2020 -3.0 2.3 61.0 47.4 21.2 2020-2030 0.2 10.5 56.3 22.4 28.2 2030-2040 -3.9 8.5 53.2 42.9 30.9 2000-2040 -9.9 55.8 458.7 354.5 153.6 Ark-Tex Council of Governments Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 6.0 20.8 200.0 0.0 22.6 2010-2020 -3.8 -23.4 66.7 -75.0 -10.8 2020-2030 -9.8 8.2 0.0 0.0 -0.9 2030-2040 -30.4 -20.8 -33.3 0.0 -26.1 2000-2040 -36.0 -20.8 233.3 0.0 -19.8 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 4.0 11.3 400.0 0.0 19.8 2010-2020 0.0 8.5 -26.7 100.0 1.6 2020-2030 9.6 -26.6 18.2 -100.0 -9.3 2030-2040 -33.3 8.5 30.8 0.0 -7.7 2000-2040 -24.0 -3.8 466.7 0.0 1.9 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 0.0 32.1 433.3 0.0 31.1 2010-2020 -16.0 -12.9 0.0 -33.3 -12.9 2020-2030 -11.9 -8.2 56.3 -50.0 -1.7 2030-2040 -16.2 -14.3 -28.0 0.0 -17.6 2000-2040 -38.0 -9.4 500.0 0.0 -7.5 East Texas Council of Governments Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -19.9 -7.8 -1.6 -27.3 -12.0 2010-2020 -13.5 -12.4 12.7 -25.0 -8.9 2020-2030 6.1 3.8 31.0 -16.7 9.8 2030-2040 -25.4 -19.1 12.9 60.0 -12.3 2000-2040 -45.2 -32.1 64.1 -27.3 -22.8 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 -16.9 -5.7 54.7 -36.4 -1.8 2010-2020 -21.0 -12.1 18.2 128.6 -5.6 2020-2030 16.5 3.1 44.4 -18.8 17.9 2030-2040 -19.7 -10.3 27.8 -7.7 0.8 2000-2040 -38.6 -23.3 237.5 9.1 10.1 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -10.2 1.6 114.1 -27.3 12.9 2010-2020 -14.8 -6.6 30.7 87.5 2.9 2020-2030 3.1 -6.6 55.9 60.0 20.0 2030-2040 -13.0 -8.2 58.4 -4.2 21.7 2000-2040 -31.3 -18.7 590.6 109.1 69.6 West Central Texas Council of Governments Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 6.9 131.3 8.0 66.7 24.4 2010-2020 -12.9 -24.3 24.1 0.0 -2.5 2020-2030 3.7 28.6 -6.0 -40.0 2.6 2030-2040 -25.0 -30.6 3.2 33.3 -13.9 2000-2040 -27.6 56.3 30.0 33.3 7.1 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 -3.4 150.0 20.0 100.0 27.6 2010-2020 3.6 -17.5 13.3 -66.7 -0.6 2020-2030 -12.1 6.1 5.9 150.0 1.2 2030-2040 -13.7 -11.4 -6.9 60.0 -8.0 2000-2040 -24.1 93.8 34.0 166.7 18.1 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -19.0 212.5 20.0 -33.3 25.2 2010-2020 4.3 -22.0 5.0 200.0 -1.3 2020-2030 -4.1 -20.5 33.3 -33.3 5.7 2030-2040 -23.4 -6.5 4.8 75.0 -3.6 2000-2040 -37.9 81.3 76.0 133.3 26.0 Rio Grande Council of Governments Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 42.9 20.0 11.7 20.0 14.8 2010-2020 40.0 -22.2 13.0 33.3 12.3 2020-2030 -28.6 7.1 6.2 -25.0 0.6 2030-2040 10.0 0.0 2.9 -25.0 1.1 2000-2040 57.1 0.0 37.9 -10.0 31.1 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 28.6 20.0 16.5 40.0 19.3 2010-2020 0.0 -27.8 5.8 0.0 1.2 2020-2030 -22.2 30.8 29.1 35.7 27.0 2030-2040 -28.6 -5.9 -2.4 15.8 -1.9 2000-2040 -28.6 6.7 55.3 120.0 50.4 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 71.4 0.0 26.2 70.0 28.9 2010-2020 -58.3 -20.0 3.8 29.4 0.0 2020-2030 80.0 41.7 24.4 31.8 28.2 2030-2040 -44.4 -23.5 -4.8 13.8 -5.4 2000-2040 -28.6 -13.3 55.3 230.0 56.3 Permian Basin Regional Planning Commission Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 31.6 100.0 53.1 60.0 58.2 2010-2020 4.0 -25.0 9.3 -25.0 -2.1 2020-2030 -7.7 -7.4 -1.2 -16.7 -4.3 2030-2040 -12.5 -8.0 3.7 40.0 0.0 2000-2040 10.5 27.8 71.4 40.0 48.4 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 5.3 38.9 32.7 60.0 29.7 2010-2020 20.0 8.0 16.9 37.5 16.9 2020-2030 -20.8 -37.0 25.0 -18.2 1.4 2030-2040 26.3 17.6 -1.1 -11.1 4.3 2000-2040 26.3 11.1 91.8 60.0 60.4 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -10.5 61.1 65.3 220.0 57.1 2010-2020 29.4 -13.8 -11.1 6.3 -4.9 2020-2030 -40.9 16.0 30.6 5.9 13.2 2030-2040 46.2 -13.8 -4.3 0.0 -1.3 2000-2040 0.0 38.9 83.7 260.0 67.0 Concho Valley Council of Governments Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -11.8 40.0 8.3 -100.0 0.0 2010-2020 40.0 0.0 34.6 0.0 31.3 2020-2030 -38.1 14.3 -8.6 0.0 -15.9 2030-2040 38.5 -12.5 12.5 0.0 15.1 2000-2040 5.9 40.0 50.0 -100.0 27.1 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 11.8 60.0 20.8 -50.0 18.8 2010-2020 0.0 -25.0 31.0 300.0 17.5 2020-2030 -15.8 33.3 -5.3 -100.0 -10.4 2030-2040 -25.0 -12.5 -8.3 0.0 -11.7 2000-2040 -29.4 40.0 37.5 -50.0 10.4 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 0.0 140.0 33.3 50.0 33.3 2010-2020 -11.8 -33.3 -3.1 -66.7 -14.1 2020-2030 -20.0 -25.0 32.3 400.0 16.4 2030-2040 -25.0 16.7 -12.2 0.0 -10.9 2000-2040 -47.1 40.0 50.0 150.0 18.8 Heart of Texas Council of Governments Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 55.0 137.5 62.5 0.0 86.5 2010-2020 -3.2 -15.8 11.5 0.0 -4.1 2020-2030 0.0 -6.3 -10.3 50.0 -4.3 2030-2040 -10.0 -20.0 7.7 -66.7 -10.1 2000-2040 35.0 50.0 75.0 0.0 53.8 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 55.0 137.5 68.8 0.0 86.5 2010-2020 -6.5 2.6 55.6 200.0 16.5 2020-2030 -10.3 -2.6 11.9 66.7 2.7 2030-2040 -11.5 -7.9 19.1 -60.0 0.0 2000-2040 15.0 118.8 250.0 0.0 123.1 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 10.0 156.3 93.8 0.0 86.5 2010-2020 27.3 -9.8 32.3 33.3 13.4 2020-2030 -3.6 5.4 90.2 125.0 39.1 2030-2040 -3.7 -15.4 26.9 -22.2 7.8 2000-2040 30.0 106.3 518.8 0.0 217.3 Capital Area Planning Council Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -6.6 -5.9 -14.5 -11.1 -10.1 2010-2020 -4.4 -7.3 28.0 31.3 10.0 2020-2030 -15.7 -10.2 -4.3 -35.7 -10.0 2030-2040 4.4 -5.7 4.2 -14.8 0.5 2000-2040 -21.5 -26.1 9.1 -36.1 -10.5 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 0.0 3.4 1.8 19.4 3.0 2010-2020 7.4 -0.5 44.8 39.5 23.1 2020-2030 -3.1 -1.9 17.2 -10.0 6.9 2030-2040 0.0 2.0 23.1 0.0 13.2 2000-2040 4.1 3.0 112.7 50.0 53.5 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 9.9 18.2 25.4 38.9 20.9 2010-2020 14.3 3.3 59.2 58.0 33.9 2020-2030 7.9 12.1 47.4 5.1 29.8 2030-2040 3.7 12.9 40.5 20.5 29.0 2000-2040 40.5 54.7 313.4 177.8 171.2 Brazos Valley Council of Governments Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 54.2 -3.3 -12.9 100.0 6.9 2010-2020 2.7 -6.9 22.2 50.0 3.2 2020-2030 -13.2 1.9 -9.1 66.7 -3.9 2030-2040 -18.2 -7.3 30.0 20.0 0.0 2000-2040 12.5 -15.0 25.8 500.0 6.0 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 4.2 3.3 22.6 300.0 11.2 2010-2020 20.0 0.0 18.4 125.0 13.2 2020-2030 6.7 -6.5 17.8 -11.1 3.4 2030-2040 -18.8 -15.5 15.1 12.5 -4.0 2000-2040 8.3 -18.3 96.8 800.0 25.0 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 33.3 20.0 22.6 500.0 27.6 2010-2020 -12.5 -22.2 39.5 0.0 -3.4 2020-2030 -7.1 25.0 15.1 16.7 14.7 2030-2040 3.8 -7.1 21.3 14.3 6.1 2000-2040 12.5 8.3 138.7 700.0 50.0 Deep East Texas Council of Governments Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -2.8 29.3 18.8 0.0 13.1 2010-2020 4.3 -20.0 -15.8 -100.0 -9.8 2020-2030 -15.3 -13.3 25.0 0.0 -10.1 2030-2040 -11.5 -25.0 10.0 0.0 -13.5 2000-2040 -23.9 -32.8 37.5 0.0 -20.7 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 4.2 24.1 -6.3 0.0 11.0 2010-2020 -2.7 -12.5 106.7 0.0 3.7 2020-2030 -8.3 -3.2 19.4 -100.0 -1.8 2030-2040 -3.0 -16.4 35.1 0.0 0.6 2000-2040 -9.9 -12.1 212.5 0.0 13.8 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 11.3 37.9 68.8 0.0 29.0 2010-2020 7.6 -30.0 40.7 -100.0 -4.3 2020-2030 -11.8 19.6 55.3 0.0 12.3 2030-2040 -14.7 -1.5 28.8 0.0 3.5 2000-2040 -9.9 13.8 375.0 0.0 43.4 South East Texas Regional Planning Commission Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -7.3 -11.9 44.4 -20.0 -8.9 2010-2020 -2.6 -11.9 23.1 -50.0 -9.2 2020-2030 -8.1 -6.3 -12.5 150.0 -3.6 2030-2040 -32.4 -9.6 50.0 -20.0 -9.9 2000-2040 -43.9 -34.3 133.3 -20.0 -28.1 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 -4.9 -5.6 111.1 30.0 1.5 2010-2020 -12.8 -22.2 15.8 0.0 -15.5 2020-2030 -11.8 10.5 50.0 7.7 10.9 2030-2040 -26.7 -9.5 27.3 50.0 -1.6 2000-2040 -46.3 -26.6 366.7 110.0 -6.4 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -7.3 -4.9 166.7 60.0 5.4 2010-2020 0.0 -7.4 54.2 18.8 2.8 2020-2030 -21.1 0.8 59.5 31.6 9.5 2030-2040 -13.3 -8.7 52.5 24.0 9.1 2000-2040 -36.6 -18.9 900.0 210.0 29.6 Houston-Galveston Area Council Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -0.7 4.2 -1.0 -9.4 1.2 2010-2020 -13.0 -11.5 20.7 22.9 -1.3 2020-2030 -8.0 -7.4 -0.9 -13.6 -5.3 2030-2040 -2.7 -8.9 8.0 -11.8 -1.4 2000-2040 -22.7 -22.3 27.9 -15.1 -6.7 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 2.9 11.0 21.5 18.9 12.8 2010-2020 -10.2 -10.2 26.1 36.5 3.1 2020-2030 -7.0 -3.8 25.7 3.5 7.9 2030-2040 -5.6 -5.9 19.5 3.4 6.4 2000-2040 -18.9 -9.7 130.1 73.6 33.5 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 4.5 17.0 45.8 50.9 24.2 2010-2020 -9.1 -9.1 32.5 38.8 7.5 2020-2030 -4.8 -0.7 52.2 27.0 23.4 2030-2040 -3.2 -3.7 33.6 25.5 18.0 2000-2040 -12.4 1.7 292.8 234.0 94.3 Golden Crescent Regional Planning Commission Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -6.7 22.2 -4.2 -83.3 -2.5 2010-2020 -7.1 -30.3 11.6 200.0 -0.9 2020-2030 -30.8 30.4 6.5 0.0 6.9 2030-2040 77.8 -20.0 1.2 0.0 1.6 2000-2040 6.7 -11.1 15.3 -50.0 5.0 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 26.7 63.0 1.4 -66.7 15.0 2010-2020 -15.8 -45.5 9.6 0.0 -11.6 2020-2030 -43.8 29.2 8.8 0.0 5.7 2030-2040 0.0 -16.1 9.2 50.0 3.1 2000-2040 -40.0 -3.7 31.9 -50.0 10.8 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 26.7 37.0 9.7 -66.7 14.2 2010-2020 5.3 -29.7 8.9 0.0 -2.2 2020-2030 -25.0 19.2 24.4 150.0 17.9 2030-2040 -6.7 0.0 1.9 100.0 3.8 2000-2040 -6.7 14.8 51.4 66.7 36.7 Alamo Area Council of Governments Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -11.5 -0.7 -4.6 -25.0 -6.1 2010-2020 -1.7 -20.0 6.6 12.5 1.9 2020-2030 -4.4 -6.9 2.7 -31.5 -1.1 2030-2040 -16.5 -1.9 -1.9 -13.5 -4.0 2000-2040 -30.5 -27.4 2.4 -50.0 -9.1 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 -5.3 2.1 3.9 -1.6 2.1 2010-2020 -8.1 -14.1 7.4 20.6 3.4 2020-2030 -2.6 3.9 9.1 6.6 7.1 2030-2040 -4.5 2.3 4.3 3.7 3.2 2000-2040 -19.1 -6.8 27.0 31.3 16.7 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 1.5 18.5 9.8 32.8 11.4 2010-2020 -11.3 -12.7 9.7 29.4 5.4 2020-2030 8.5 9.9 17.0 52.7 18.5 2030-2040 -2.3 0.0 4.0 39.9 7.2 2000-2040 -4.6 13.7 46.8 267.2 49.2 South Texas Development Council Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 100.0 0.0 46.3 300.0 54.3 2010-2020 0.0 0.0 22.4 37.5 23.1 2020-2030 50.0 0.0 4.2 54.5 9.8 2030-2040 -33.3 -100.0 18.4 -11.8 13.0 2000-2040 100.0 0.0 120.9 650.0 135.7 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 200.0 0.0 58.2 250.0 68.6 2010-2020 0.0 -50.0 12.3 85.7 15.3 2020-2030 -33.3 -100.0 25.2 53.8 25.7 2030-2040 -50.0 0.0 14.1 30.0 15.2 2000-2040 0.0 0.0 153.7 1200.0 181.4 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 300.0 0.0 64.2 400.0 78.6 2010-2020 -50.0 100.0 18.2 60.0 20.0 2020-2030 -50.0 -100.0 31.5 87.5 34.7 2030-2040 0.0 0.0 15.8 23.3 16.8 2000-2040 0.0 0.0 195.5 1750.0 237.1 Coastal Bend Council of Governments Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -21.7 16.0 0.8 -3.3 -1.4 2010-2020 11.1 -13.8 8.0 6.9 6.4 2020-2030 -2.5 20.0 1.9 0.0 2.5 2030-2040 -7.7 -26.7 2.2 -29.0 -3.7 2000-2040 -21.7 -12.0 13.3 -26.7 3.4 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 -21.7 72.0 14.9 13.3 14.0 2010-2020 8.3 -23.3 10.5 8.8 6.5 2020-2030 -10.3 9.1 13.0 13.5 10.6 2030-2040 -17.1 -13.9 3.4 21.4 2.1 2000-2040 -37.0 24.0 48.4 70.0 37.2 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -10.9 32.0 30.6 50.0 26.9 2010-2020 -7.3 6.1 5.9 33.3 7.4 2020-2030 -15.8 -8.6 21.3 53.3 20.2 2030-2040 -31.3 -3.1 6.5 38.0 8.9 2000-2040 -52.2 24.0 78.6 323.3 78.5 Lower Rio Grande Valley Development Council Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -22.2 0.0 20.0 10.0 19.2 2010-2020 -42.9 0.0 25.2 13.6 22.2 2020-2030 150.0 -25.0 11.0 -40.0 8.5 2030-2040 40.0 33.3 6.1 20.0 7.8 2000-2040 55.6 0.0 77.1 -10.0 70.5 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 11.1 0.0 42.9 35.0 43.6 2010-2020 -20.0 -16.7 17.4 29.6 16.7 2020-2030 -50.0 0.0 19.2 17.1 17.3 2030-2040 -25.0 -40.0 12.0 12.2 11.1 2000-2040 -66.7 0.0 123.9 130.0 118.4 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 0.0 0.0 62.0 60.0 60.7 2010-2020 33.3 -33.3 10.8 65.6 15.7 2020-2030 -75.0 350.0 30.7 32.1 29.4 2030-2040 0.0 -33.3 8.5 52.9 13.3 2000-2040 -66.7 0.0 154.6 435.0 172.6 Texoma Council of Governments Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 0.0 13.6 300.0 0.0 19.2 2010-2020 -28.6 -20.0 75.0 -100.0 -12.9 2020-2030 5.0 -10.0 -35.7 0.0 -9.3 2030-2040 -4.8 27.8 0.0 100.0 10.2 2000-2040 -28.6 4.5 350.0 0.0 3.8 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 -10.7 -4.5 350.0 0.0 9.6 2010-2020 -8.0 14.3 33.3 -100.0 3.5 2020-2030 0.0 -16.7 8.3 0.0 -5.1 2030-2040 -26.1 -20.0 30.8 0.0 -7.1 2000-2040 -39.3 -27.3 750.0 0.0 0.0 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -14.3 22.7 250.0 0.0 11.5 2010-2020 -8.3 0.0 185.7 0.0 20.7 2020-2030 -4.5 -29.6 -5.0 100.0 -12.9 2030-2040 -28.6 10.5 36.8 250.0 13.1 2000-2040 -46.4 -4.5 1200.0 0.0 32.7 Central Texas Council of Governments Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -5.2 9.2 0.0 0.0 1.9 2010-2020 7.3 0.0 35.5 100.0 11.8 2020-2030 0.0 -15.5 -2.4 -25.0 -7.8 2030-2040 -15.3 6.7 9.8 33.3 0.6 2000-2040 -13.8 -1.5 45.2 100.0 5.7 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 -12.1 29.2 29.0 150.0 17.1 2010-2020 15.7 -6.0 17.5 -10.0 4.9 2020-2030 -3.4 1.3 40.4 33.3 10.8 2030-2040 -14.0 1.3 -1.5 0.0 -3.7 2000-2040 -15.5 24.6 109.7 200.0 31.0 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 1.7 27.7 45.2 75.0 22.8 2010-2020 -6.8 -3.6 37.8 57.1 7.2 2020-2030 1.8 16.3 29.0 72.7 19.2 2030-2040 -35.7 1.1 28.8 42.1 4.8 2000-2040 -37.9 44.6 232.3 575.0 64.6 Middle Rio Grande Development Council Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 100.0 50.0 77.1 200.0 78.6 2010-2020 50.0 -16.7 1.6 -33.3 1.3 2020-2030 0.0 -20.0 19.0 0.0 14.5 2030-2040 -33.3 -25.0 12.0 -50.0 5.7 2000-2040 100.0 -25.0 140.0 0.0 119.0 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 50.0 75.0 85.7 100.0 83.3 2010-2020 0.0 -28.6 4.6 50.0 2.6 2020-2030 66.7 -20.0 30.9 -66.7 25.3 2030-2040 0.0 0.0 -7.9 100.0 -6.1 2000-2040 150.0 0.0 134.3 100.0 121.4 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 100.0 100.0 82.9 300.0 90.5 2010-2020 -50.0 -50.0 7.8 50.0 1.3 2020-2030 0.0 75.0 23.2 -83.3 17.3 2030-2040 100.0 14.3 -5.9 500.0 3.2 2000-2040 100.0 100.0 128.6 500.0 133.3 ___________________________________ Source: Derived by the authors from Texas Population Estimates and Projections Program, Projections of the Population of Texas and Counties in Texas by Age, Sex, and Race/Ethnicity for 2000-2040, 2001. Texas Youth Commission, On-Hand Populations, 1995-2001, [machine readable data files], 2002a. ______________________________________________________________________