Table 9.8 Prison Population by Race/Ethnicity for the State of Texas and Council of Government Regions in Texas in 2000 and Projections to 2040 Assuming Alternative Projection Scenarios ______________________________________________________________________ Year Anglo Black Hispanic Other Total ______________________________________________________________________ State of Texas All Scenarios 2000 46,910 66,124 38,235 599 151,868 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 44,972 71,611 44,627 558 161,768 2020 42,860 74,755 49,359 542 167,516 2030 41,048 74,187 54,202 552 169,989 2040 38,825 70,876 58,459 495 168,655 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 45,921 75,245 52,924 708 174,798 2020 44,606 82,873 68,367 854 196,700 2030 43,408 86,630 85,402 1,036 216,476 2040 41,698 87,227 104,186 1,146 234,257 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 46,887 79,059 62,782 899 189,627 2020 46,425 91,848 95,152 1,339 234,764 2030 45,915 101,105 135,186 1,931 284,137 2040 44,785 107,286 186,018 2,634 340,723 Panhandle Regional Planning Commission All Scenarios 2000 1,545 803 983 19 3,350 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 1,567 921 1,220 20 3,728 2020 1,518 1,018 1,458 20 4,014 2030 1,522 1,016 1,646 18 4,202 2040 1,497 976 1,805 18 4,296 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 1,530 934 1,364 23 3,851 2020 1,440 1,057 1,788 29 4,314 2030 1,386 1,079 2,185 30 4,680 2040 1,299 1,065 2,574 33 4,971 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 1,470 962 1,523 27 3,982 2020 1,298 1,097 2,177 38 4,610 2030 1,132 1,118 2,864 46 5,160 2040 942 1,069 3,597 54 5,662 South Plains Association of Governments All Scenarios 2000 837 1,049 1,365 8 3,259 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 859 1,216 1,650 10 3,735 2020 829 1,312 1,855 10 4,006 2030 797 1,340 2,046 10 4,193 2040 764 1,292 2,198 10 4,264 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 822 1,239 1,751 11 3,823 2020 763 1,366 2,075 14 4,218 2030 708 1,415 2,362 15 4,500 2040 638 1,384 2,572 19 4,613 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 773 1,262 1,834 12 3,881 2020 675 1,416 2,234 19 4,344 2030 562 1,462 2,532 23 4,579 2040 454 1,388 2,690 35 4,567 NORTEX Regional Planning Commission All Scenarios 2000 686 380 161 3 1,230 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 684 443 202 6 1,335 2020 702 501 228 5 1,436 2030 683 502 256 5 1,446 2040 664 491 285 4 1,444 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 672 445 220 6 1,343 2020 674 506 278 7 1,465 2030 640 513 330 9 1,492 2040 610 511 396 7 1,524 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 650 448 253 7 1,358 2020 604 514 353 8 1,479 2030 539 506 459 11 1,515 2040 470 495 575 14 1,554 North Central Texas Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 14,340 21,695 5,784 246 42,065 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 13,763 23,624 6,990 227 44,604 2020 12,917 24,558 7,745 216 45,436 2030 12,146 24,474 8,353 229 45,202 2040 11,337 23,515 8,988 205 44,045 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 13,766 24,987 8,829 298 47,880 2020 13,085 27,853 12,198 357 53,493 2030 12,401 29,672 16,029 453 58,555 2040 11,684 30,430 20,850 502 63,466 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 13,799 26,389 11,062 382 51,632 2020 13,362 31,388 18,836 565 64,151 2030 12,884 35,516 29,563 835 78,798 2040 12,413 38,341 44,981 1,153 96,888 Ark-Tex Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 1,184 1,290 81 8 2,563 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 1,155 1,492 88 11 2,746 2020 1,139 1,623 103 12 2,877 2030 1,110 1,594 108 10 2,822 2040 1,068 1,499 109 9 2,685 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 1,135 1,518 103 11 2,767 2020 1,093 1,665 130 12 2,900 2030 1,046 1,646 151 10 2,853 2040 971 1,557 160 9 2,697 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 1,096 1,511 119 12 2,738 2020 997 1,621 162 12 2,792 2030 884 1,568 206 13 2,671 2040 751 1,431 242 16 2,440 East Texas Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 2,763 3,106 259 5 6,133 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 2,761 3,530 334 5 6,630 2020 2,694 3,731 394 5 6,824 2030 2,608 3,681 441 6 6,736 2040 2,499 3,528 491 5 6,523 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 2,765 3,589 418 9 6,781 2020 2,717 3,848 623 11 7,199 2030 2,631 3,842 877 12 7,362 2040 2,511 3,727 1,205 13 7,456 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 2,733 3,571 525 11 6,840 2020 2,646 3,800 990 21 7,457 2030 2,471 3,749 1,662 31 7,913 2040 2,224 3,525 2,738 42 8,529 West Central Texas Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 1,388 673 729 7 2,797 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 1,452 816 902 8 3,178 2020 1,424 876 1,037 7 3,344 2030 1,375 862 1,120 8 3,365 2040 1,323 808 1,208 6 3,345 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 1,417 843 962 10 3,232 2020 1,347 952 1,163 11 3,473 2030 1,276 968 1,304 15 3,563 2040 1,193 946 1,446 16 3,601 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 1,357 877 1,016 13 3,263 2020 1,194 1,038 1,281 17 3,530 2030 1,052 1,075 1,466 31 3,624 2040 878 1,040 1,597 37 3,552 Rio Grande Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 560 247 2,109 9 2,925 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 539 272 2,507 9 3,327 2020 514 289 2,855 9 3,667 2030 492 281 3,248 9 4,030 2040 478 282 3,562 9 4,331 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 475 269 2,810 9 3,563 2020 397 281 3,471 14 4,163 2030 343 269 4,052 15 4,679 2040 291 266 4,566 18 5,141 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 413 261 3,125 16 3,815 2020 299 261 4,114 18 4,692 2030 226 235 4,789 24 5,274 2040 166 217 5,302 34 5,719 Permian Basin Regional Planning Commission All Scenarios 2000 1,119 747 1,354 5 3,225 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 1,185 863 1,634 6 3,688 2020 1,149 981 1,854 6 3,990 2030 1,092 1,010 2,073 6 4,181 2040 1,083 992 2,274 6 4,355 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 1,089 864 1,735 6 3,694 2020 974 977 2,072 7 4,030 2030 869 1,006 2,399 7 4,281 2040 790 986 2,711 8 4,495 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 967 866 1,817 7 3,657 2020 776 944 2,248 10 3,978 2030 603 941 2,613 13 4,170 2040 471 864 2,908 18 4,261 Concho Valley Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 580 171 558 1 1,310 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 592 206 700 2 1,500 2020 571 221 793 2 1,587 2030 549 227 866 1 1,643 2040 532 221 933 0 1,686 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 575 212 776 3 1,566 2020 536 230 962 2 1,730 2030 490 240 1,106 1 1,837 2040 454 234 1,250 0 1,938 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 552 212 852 3 1,619 2020 478 240 1,148 4 1,870 2030 405 255 1,356 3 2,019 2040 342 242 1,552 4 2,140 Heart of Texas Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 1,023 1,512 325 4 2,864 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 1,037 1,812 407 6 3,262 2020 1,008 1,974 460 4 3,446 2030 953 1,995 502 5 3,455 2040 908 1,884 542 4 3,338 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 1,038 1,872 510 6 3,426 2020 1,006 2,088 692 10 3,796 2030 940 2,157 867 9 3,973 2040 884 2,079 1,108 11 4,082 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 1,011 1,916 642 9 3,578 2020 961 2,155 1,038 13 4,167 2030 839 2,206 1,456 22 4,523 2040 718 2,085 2,069 27 4,899 Capital Area Planning Council All Scenarios 2000 2,448 2,629 1,930 24 7,031 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 2,405 2,827 2,393 25 7,650 2020 2,173 2,834 2,596 24 7,627 2030 1,989 2,735 2,754 23 7,501 2040 1,878 2,586 2,873 23 7,360 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 2,633 3,086 3,077 29 8,825 2020 2,670 3,409 4,192 39 10,310 2030 2,677 3,585 5,401 43 11,706 2040 2,726 3,727 6,785 55 13,293 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 2,884 3,378 3,927 41 10,230 2020 3,255 4,110 6,668 61 14,094 2030 3,515 4,749 10,222 88 18,574 2040 3,775 5,487 15,122 127 24,511 Brazos Valley Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 540 1,325 242 12 2,119 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 533 1,569 298 11 2,411 2020 522 1,760 348 10 2,640 2030 519 1,829 372 12 2,732 2040 525 1,769 392 12 2,698 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 567 1,589 338 12 2,506 2020 581 1,826 467 14 2,888 2030 585 1,941 563 15 3,104 2040 592 1,908 654 16 3,170 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 588 1,617 395 13 2,613 2020 612 1,839 615 14 3,080 2030 599 1,915 841 21 3,376 2040 573 1,830 1,043 24 3,470 Deep East Texas Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 1,151 1,198 112 5 2,466 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 1,141 1,402 131 5 2,679 2020 1,133 1,488 146 5 2,772 2030 1,110 1,482 168 6 2,766 2040 1,089 1,446 186 6 2,727 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 1,162 1,423 153 5 2,743 2020 1,186 1,515 204 5 2,910 2030 1,175 1,522 271 6 2,974 2040 1,149 1,478 345 6 2,978 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 1,173 1,401 189 7 2,770 2020 1,178 1,479 289 10 2,956 2030 1,139 1,460 434 16 3,049 2040 1,070 1,364 631 24 3,089 South East Texas Regional Planning Commission All Scenarios 2000 1,168 2,239 103 23 3,533 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 1,153 2,528 110 21 3,812 2020 1,108 2,762 119 22 4,011 2030 1,049 2,789 128 21 3,987 2040 992 2,667 135 20 3,814 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 1,090 2,579 136 29 3,834 2020 1,008 2,868 187 34 4,097 2030 908 2,965 244 39 4,156 2040 821 2,898 316 46 4,081 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 1,021 2,608 166 34 3,829 2020 877 2,913 289 52 4,131 2030 724 2,983 468 70 4,245 2040 590 2,824 716 92 4,222 Houston-Galveston Area Council All Scenarios 2000 11,029 23,646 7,853 216 42,744 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 10,574 25,370 9,112 186 45,242 2020 9,936 26,345 10,107 179 46,567 2030 9,399 26,182 10,940 183 46,704 2040 8,760 24,888 11,648 152 45,448 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 10,245 26,000 11,337 243 47,825 2020 9,408 27,791 15,144 289 52,632 2030 8,698 28,302 19,420 348 56,768 2040 7,930 27,496 24,186 375 59,987 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 9,930 26,539 14,108 312 50,889 2020 8,833 28,884 22,644 451 60,812 2030 7,943 29,494 33,256 636 71,329 2040 7,078 28,296 46,346 839 82,559 Golden Crescent Regional Planning Commission All Scenarios 2000 346 485 611 2 1,444 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 357 579 723 1 1,660 2020 344 647 804 1 1,796 2030 333 614 904 2 1,853 2040 333 596 984 1 1,914 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 361 585 791 2 1,739 2020 326 667 962 1 1,956 2030 312 633 1,127 2 2,074 2040 302 618 1,287 1 2,208 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 344 604 870 3 1,821 2020 299 706 1,136 2 2,143 2030 256 687 1,363 4 2,310 2040 220 667 1,560 6 2,453 Alamo Area Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 2,176 2,259 7,400 24 11,859 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 2,127 2,420 8,406 26 12,979 2020 1,989 2,459 9,149 26 13,623 2030 1,896 2,366 9,790 27 14,079 2040 1,805 2,195 10,199 24 14,223 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 2,145 2,552 9,136 34 13,867 2020 2,041 2,761 10,753 46 15,601 2030 1,953 2,821 12,168 58 17,000 2040 1,882 2,800 13,299 70 18,051 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 2,160 2,686 9,863 50 14,759 2020 2,083 3,074 12,306 80 17,543 2030 1,987 3,281 14,374 134 19,776 2040 1,921 3,333 15,942 205 21,401 South Texas Development Council All Scenarios 2000 78 12 766 1 857 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 88 14 916 3 1,021 2020 88 16 1,079 8 1,191 2030 78 12 1,299 7 1,396 2040 73 13 1,508 9 1,603 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 91 14 1,052 3 1,160 2020 95 16 1,387 9 1,507 2030 84 12 1,755 8 1,859 2040 77 10 2,152 12 2,251 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 91 14 1,201 3 1,309 2020 98 15 1,746 10 1,869 2030 88 10 2,264 11 2,373 2040 79 8 2,825 15 2,927 Coastal Bend Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 920 446 2,359 7 3,732 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 895 500 2,689 10 4,094 2020 851 526 2,948 9 4,334 2030 801 509 3,168 9 4,487 2040 761 473 3,322 11 4,567 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 883 514 3,014 12 4,423 2020 828 565 3,644 13 5,050 2030 762 559 4,209 16 5,546 2040 705 529 4,687 18 5,939 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 864 534 3,356 17 4,771 2020 779 611 4,430 20 5,840 2030 667 611 5,325 25 6,628 2040 577 580 6,054 39 7,250 Lower Rio Grande Valley Development Council All Scenarios 2000 463 60 3,141 4 3,668 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 475 64 3,827 5 4,371 2020 454 73 4,495 5 5,027 2030 435 69 5,336 4 5,844 2040 426 63 6,087 5 6,581 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 465 65 4,257 6 4,793 2020 436 75 5,467 9 5,987 2030 402 70 6,812 12 7,296 2040 373 62 8,170 16 8,621 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 450 68 4,687 8 5,213 2020 389 79 6,458 15 6,941 2030 328 71 8,225 23 8,647 2040 268 71 9,965 40 10,344 Texoma Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 662 405 48 3 1,118 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 665 503 60 5 1,233 2020 642 527 69 4 1,242 2030 625 539 82 4 1,250 2040 592 532 85 2 1,211 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 678 509 77 5 1,269 2020 666 517 99 7 1,289 2030 645 535 131 9 1,320 2040 617 529 159 8 1,313 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 678 507 88 8 1,281 2020 656 531 140 10 1,337 2030 612 559 203 15 1,389 2040 549 563 284 19 1,415 Central Texas Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 1,028 1,113 364 9 2,514 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 1,081 1,303 468 8 2,860 2020 1,073 1,394 514 8 2,989 2030 1,059 1,391 577 10 3,037 2040 1,077 1,377 613 7 3,074 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 1,098 1,468 545 10 3,121 2020 1,077 1,708 701 14 3,500 2030 1,048 1,817 893 18 3,776 2040 1,013 1,890 1,071 21 3,995 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 1,094 1,648 644 15 3,401 2020 1,047 2,075 957 20 4,099 2030 954 2,323 1,373 34 4,684 2040 841 2,444 1,804 48 5,137 Middle Rio Grande Development Council All Scenarios 2000 87 24 435 1 547 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 98 24 530 1 653 2020 98 27 610 2 737 2030 93 23 687 2 805 2040 90 25 770 1 886 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 99 24 546 1 670 2020 97 28 636 2 763 2030 87 24 721 2 834 2040 86 25 799 2 912 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 100 27 550 2 679 2020 87 29 624 3 743 2030 82 27 683 3 795 2040 70 29 715 4 818 ___________________________________ Source: Derived by the authors from Texas Population Estimates and Projections Program, Projections of the Population of Texas and Counties in Texas by Age, Sex, and Race/Ethnicity for 2000-2040, 2001. Texas Department of Criminal Justice, On-Hand Population, 2000, 2002. ______________________________________________________________________