Table 9.9 Percent Change in Projected Prison Population by Race/Ethnicity for the State of Texas and Council of Government Regions in Texas in 2000 and Projections to 2040 Assuming Alternative Projection Scenarios ______________________________________________________________________ Time Period Anglo Black Hispanic Other Total ______________________________________________________________________ State of Texas Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -4.1 8.3 16.7 -6.8 6.5 2010-2020 -4.7 4.4 10.6 -2.9 3.6 2020-2030 -4.2 -0.8 9.8 1.8 1.5 2030-2040 -5.4 -4.5 7.9 -10.3 -0.8 2000-2040 -17.2 7.2 52.9 -17.4 11.1 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 -2.1 13.8 38.4 18.2 15.1 2010-2020 -2.9 10.1 29.2 20.6 12.5 2020-2030 -2.7 4.5 24.9 21.3 10.1 2030-2040 -3.9 0.7 22.0 10.6 8.2 2000-2040 -11.1 31.9 172.5 91.3 54.3 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 0.0 19.6 64.2 50.1 24.9 2010-2020 -1.0 16.2 51.6 48.9 23.8 2020-2030 -1.1 10.1 42.1 44.2 21.0 2030-2040 -2.5 6.1 37.6 36.4 19.9 2000-2040 -4.5 62.2 386.5 339.7 124.4 Panhandle Regional Planning Commission Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 1.4 14.7 24.1 5.3 11.3 2010-2020 -3.1 10.5 19.5 0.0 7.7 2020-2030 0.3 -0.2 12.9 -10.0 4.7 2030-2040 -1.6 -3.9 9.7 0.0 2.2 2000-2040 -3.1 21.5 83.6 -5.3 28.2 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 -1.0 16.3 38.8 21.1 15.0 2010-2020 -5.9 13.2 31.1 26.1 12.0 2020-2030 -3.8 2.1 22.2 3.4 8.5 2030-2040 -6.3 -1.3 17.8 10.0 6.2 2000-2040 -15.9 32.6 161.9 73.7 48.4 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -4.9 19.8 54.9 42.1 18.9 2010-2020 -11.7 14.0 42.9 40.7 15.8 2020-2030 -12.8 1.9 31.6 21.1 11.9 2030-2040 -16.8 -4.4 25.6 17.4 9.7 2000-2040 -39.0 33.1 265.9 184.2 69.0 South Plains Association of Governments Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 2.6 15.9 20.9 25.0 14.6 2010-2020 -3.5 7.9 12.4 0.0 7.3 2020-2030 -3.9 2.1 10.3 0.0 4.7 2030-2040 -4.1 -3.6 7.4 0.0 1.7 2000-2040 -8.7 23.2 61.0 25.0 30.8 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 -1.8 18.1 28.3 37.5 17.3 2010-2020 -7.2 10.3 18.5 27.3 10.3 2020-2030 -7.2 3.6 13.8 7.1 6.7 2030-2040 -9.9 -2.2 8.9 26.7 2.5 2000-2040 -23.8 31.9 88.4 137.5 41.5 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -7.6 20.3 34.4 50.0 19.1 2010-2020 -12.7 12.2 21.8 58.3 11.9 2020-2030 -16.7 3.2 13.3 21.1 5.4 2030-2040 -19.2 -5.1 6.2 52.2 -0.3 2000-2040 -45.8 32.3 97.1 337.5 40.1 NORTEX Regional Planning Commission Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -0.3 16.6 25.5 100.0 8.5 2010-2020 2.6 13.1 12.9 -16.7 7.6 2020-2030 -2.7 0.2 12.3 0.0 0.7 2030-2040 -2.8 -2.2 11.3 -20.0 -0.1 2000-2040 -3.2 29.2 77.0 33.3 17.4 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 -2.0 17.1 36.6 100.0 9.2 2010-2020 0.3 13.7 26.4 16.7 9.1 2020-2030 -5.0 1.4 18.7 28.6 1.8 2030-2040 -4.7 -0.4 20.0 -22.2 2.1 2000-2040 -11.1 34.5 146.0 133.3 23.9 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -5.2 17.9 57.1 133.3 10.4 2010-2020 -7.1 14.7 39.5 14.3 8.9 2020-2030 -10.8 -1.6 30.0 37.5 2.4 2030-2040 -12.8 -2.2 25.3 27.3 2.6 2000-2040 -31.5 30.3 257.1 366.7 26.3 North Central Texas Council of Governments Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -4.0 8.9 20.9 -7.7 6.0 2010-2020 -6.1 4.0 10.8 -4.8 1.9 2020-2030 -6.0 -0.3 7.9 6.0 -0.5 2030-2040 -6.7 -3.9 7.6 -10.5 -2.6 2000-2040 -20.9 8.4 55.4 -16.7 4.7 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 -4.0 15.2 52.6 21.1 13.8 2010-2020 -4.9 11.5 38.2 19.8 11.7 2020-2030 -5.2 6.5 31.4 26.9 9.5 2030-2040 -5.8 2.6 30.1 10.8 8.4 2000-2040 -18.5 40.3 260.5 104.1 50.9 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -3.8 21.6 91.3 55.3 22.7 2010-2020 -3.2 18.9 70.3 47.9 24.2 2020-2030 -3.6 13.2 56.9 47.8 22.8 2030-2040 -3.7 8.0 52.2 38.1 23.0 2000-2040 -13.4 76.7 677.7 368.7 130.3 Ark-Tex Council of Governments Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -2.4 15.7 8.6 37.5 7.1 2010-2020 -1.4 8.8 17.0 9.1 4.8 2020-2030 -2.5 -1.8 4.9 -16.7 -1.9 2030-2040 -3.8 -6.0 0.9 -10.0 -4.9 2000-2040 -9.8 16.2 34.6 12.5 4.8 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 -4.1 17.7 27.2 37.5 8.0 2010-2020 -3.7 9.7 26.2 9.1 4.8 2020-2030 -4.3 -1.1 16.2 -16.7 -1.6 2030-2040 -7.2 -5.4 6.0 -10.0 -5.5 2000-2040 -18.0 20.7 97.5 12.5 5.2 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -7.4 17.1 46.9 50.0 6.8 2010-2020 -9.0 7.3 36.1 0.0 2.0 2020-2030 -11.3 -3.3 27.2 8.3 -4.3 2030-2040 -15.0 -8.7 17.5 23.1 -8.6 2000-2040 -36.6 10.9 198.8 100.0 -4.8 East Texas Council of Governments Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -0.1 13.7 29.0 0.0 8.1 2010-2020 -2.4 5.7 18.0 0.0 2.9 2020-2030 -3.2 -1.3 11.9 20.0 -1.3 2030-2040 -4.2 -4.2 11.3 -16.7 -3.2 2000-2040 -9.6 13.6 89.6 0.0 6.4 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 0.1 15.6 61.4 80.0 10.6 2010-2020 -1.7 7.2 49.0 22.2 6.2 2020-2030 -3.2 -0.2 40.8 9.1 2.3 2030-2040 -4.6 -3.0 37.4 8.3 1.3 2000-2040 -9.1 20.0 365.3 160.0 21.6 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -1.1 15.0 102.7 120.0 11.5 2010-2020 -3.2 6.4 88.6 90.9 9.0 2020-2030 -6.6 -1.3 67.9 47.6 6.1 2030-2040 -10.0 -6.0 64.7 35.5 7.8 2000-2040 -19.5 13.5 957.1 740.0 39.1 West Central Texas Council of Governments Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 4.6 21.2 23.7 14.3 13.6 2010-2020 -1.9 7.4 15.0 -12.5 5.2 2020-2030 -3.4 -1.6 8.0 14.3 0.6 2030-2040 -3.8 -6.3 7.9 -25.0 -0.6 2000-2040 -4.7 20.1 65.7 -14.3 19.6 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 2.1 25.3 32.0 42.9 15.6 2010-2020 -4.9 12.9 20.9 10.0 7.5 2020-2030 -5.3 1.7 12.1 36.4 2.6 2030-2040 -6.5 -2.3 10.9 6.7 1.1 2000-2040 -14.0 40.6 98.4 128.6 28.7 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -2.2 30.3 39.4 85.7 16.7 2010-2020 -12.0 18.4 26.1 30.8 8.2 2020-2030 -11.9 3.6 14.4 82.4 2.7 2030-2040 -16.5 -3.3 8.9 19.4 -2.0 2000-2040 -36.7 54.5 119.1 428.6 27.0 Rio Grande Council of Governments Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -3.8 10.1 18.9 0.0 13.7 2010-2020 -4.6 6.3 13.9 0.0 10.2 2020-2030 -4.3 -2.8 13.8 0.0 9.9 2030-2040 -2.8 0.4 9.7 0.0 7.5 2000-2040 -14.6 14.2 68.9 0.0 48.1 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 -15.2 8.9 33.2 0.0 21.8 2010-2020 -16.4 4.5 23.5 55.6 16.8 2020-2030 -13.6 -4.3 16.7 7.1 12.4 2030-2040 -15.2 -1.1 12.7 20.0 9.9 2000-2040 -48.0 7.7 116.5 100.0 75.8 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -26.3 5.7 48.2 77.8 30.4 2010-2020 -27.6 0.0 31.6 12.5 23.0 2020-2030 -24.4 -10.0 16.4 33.3 12.4 2030-2040 -26.5 -7.7 10.7 41.7 8.4 2000-2040 -70.4 -12.1 151.4 277.8 95.5 Permian Basin Regional Planning Commission Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 5.9 15.5 20.7 20.0 14.4 2010-2020 -3.0 13.7 13.5 0.0 8.2 2020-2030 -5.0 3.0 11.8 0.0 4.8 2030-2040 -0.8 -1.8 9.7 0.0 4.2 2000-2040 -3.2 32.8 67.9 20.0 35.0 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 -2.7 15.7 28.1 20.0 14.5 2010-2020 -10.6 13.1 19.4 16.7 9.1 2020-2030 -10.8 3.0 15.8 0.0 6.2 2030-2040 -9.1 -2.0 13.0 14.3 5.0 2000-2040 -29.4 32.0 100.2 60.0 39.4 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -13.6 15.9 34.2 40.0 13.4 2010-2020 -19.8 9.0 23.7 42.9 8.8 2020-2030 -22.3 -0.3 16.2 30.0 4.8 2030-2040 -21.9 -8.2 11.3 38.5 2.2 2000-2040 -57.9 15.7 114.8 260.0 32.1 Concho Valley Council of Governments Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 2.1 20.5 25.4 100.0 14.5 2010-2020 -3.5 7.3 13.3 0.0 5.8 2020-2030 -3.9 2.7 9.2 -50.0 3.5 2030-2040 -3.1 -2.6 7.7 -100.0 2.6 2000-2040 -8.3 29.2 67.2 -100.0 28.7 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 -0.9 24.0 39.1 200.0 19.5 2010-2020 -6.8 8.5 24.0 -33.3 10.5 2020-2030 -8.6 4.3 15.0 -50.0 6.2 2030-2040 -7.3 -2.5 13.0 -100.0 5.5 2000-2040 -21.7 36.8 124.0 -100.0 47.9 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -4.8 24.0 52.7 200.0 23.6 2010-2020 -13.4 13.2 34.7 33.3 15.5 2020-2030 -15.3 6.3 18.1 -25.0 8.0 2030-2040 -15.6 -5.1 14.5 33.3 6.0 2000-2040 -41.0 41.5 178.1 300.0 63.4 Heart of Texas Council of Governments Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 1.4 19.8 25.2 50.0 13.9 2010-2020 -2.8 8.9 13.0 -33.3 5.6 2020-2030 -5.5 1.1 9.1 25.0 0.3 2030-2040 -4.7 -5.6 8.0 -20.0 -3.4 2000-2040 -11.2 24.6 66.8 0.0 16.6 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 1.5 23.8 56.9 50.0 19.6 2010-2020 -3.1 11.5 35.7 66.7 10.8 2020-2030 -6.6 3.3 25.3 -10.0 4.7 2030-2040 -6.0 -3.6 27.8 22.2 2.7 2000-2040 -13.6 37.5 240.9 175.0 42.5 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -1.2 26.7 97.5 125.0 24.9 2010-2020 -4.9 12.5 61.7 44.4 16.5 2020-2030 -12.7 2.4 40.3 69.2 8.5 2030-2040 -14.4 -5.5 42.1 22.7 8.3 2000-2040 -29.8 37.9 536.6 575.0 71.1 Capital Area Planning Council Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -1.8 7.5 24.0 4.2 8.8 2010-2020 -9.6 0.2 8.5 -4.0 -0.3 2020-2030 -8.5 -3.5 6.1 -4.2 -1.7 2030-2040 -5.6 -5.4 4.3 0.0 -1.9 2000-2040 -23.3 -1.6 48.9 -4.2 4.7 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 7.6 17.4 59.4 20.8 25.5 2010-2020 1.4 10.5 36.2 34.5 16.8 2020-2030 0.3 5.2 28.8 10.3 13.5 2030-2040 1.8 4.0 25.6 27.9 13.6 2000-2040 11.4 41.8 251.6 129.2 89.1 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 17.8 28.5 103.5 70.8 45.5 2010-2020 12.9 21.7 69.8 48.8 37.8 2020-2030 8.0 15.5 53.3 44.3 31.8 2030-2040 7.4 15.5 47.9 44.3 32.0 2000-2040 54.2 108.7 683.5 429.2 248.6 Brazos Valley Council of Governments Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -1.3 18.4 23.1 -8.3 13.8 2010-2020 -2.1 12.2 16.8 -9.1 9.5 2020-2030 -0.6 3.9 6.9 20.0 3.5 2030-2040 1.2 -3.3 5.4 0.0 -1.2 2000-2040 -2.8 33.5 62.0 0.0 27.3 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 5.0 19.9 39.7 0.0 18.3 2010-2020 2.5 14.9 38.2 16.7 15.2 2020-2030 0.7 6.3 20.6 7.1 7.5 2030-2040 1.2 -1.7 16.2 6.7 2.1 2000-2040 9.6 44.0 170.2 33.3 49.6 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 8.9 22.0 63.2 8.3 23.3 2010-2020 4.1 13.7 55.7 7.7 17.9 2020-2030 -2.1 4.1 36.7 50.0 9.6 2030-2040 -4.3 -4.4 24.0 14.3 2.8 2000-2040 6.1 38.1 331.0 100.0 63.8 Deep East Texas Council of Governments Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -0.9 17.0 17.0 0.0 8.6 2010-2020 -0.7 6.1 11.5 0.0 3.5 2020-2030 -2.0 -0.4 15.1 20.0 -0.2 2030-2040 -1.9 -2.4 10.7 0.0 -1.4 2000-2040 -5.4 20.7 66.1 20.0 10.6 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 1.0 18.8 36.6 0.0 11.2 2010-2020 2.1 6.5 33.3 0.0 6.1 2020-2030 -0.9 0.5 32.8 20.0 2.2 2030-2040 -2.2 -2.9 27.3 0.0 0.1 2000-2040 -0.2 23.4 208.0 20.0 20.8 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 1.9 16.9 68.8 40.0 12.3 2010-2020 0.4 5.6 52.9 42.9 6.7 2020-2030 -3.3 -1.3 50.2 60.0 3.1 2030-2040 -6.1 -6.6 45.4 50.0 1.3 2000-2040 -7.0 13.9 463.4 380.0 25.3 South East Texas Regional Planning Commission Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -1.3 12.9 6.8 -8.7 7.9 2010-2020 -3.9 9.3 8.2 4.8 5.2 2020-2030 -5.3 1.0 7.6 -4.5 -0.6 2030-2040 -5.4 -4.4 5.5 -4.8 -4.3 2000-2040 -15.1 19.1 31.1 -13.0 8.0 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 -6.7 15.2 32.0 26.1 8.5 2010-2020 -7.5 11.2 37.5 17.2 6.9 2020-2030 -9.9 3.4 30.5 14.7 1.4 2030-2040 -9.6 -2.3 29.5 17.9 -1.8 2000-2040 -29.7 29.4 206.8 100.0 15.5 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -12.6 16.5 61.2 47.8 8.4 2010-2020 -14.1 11.7 74.1 52.9 7.9 2020-2030 -17.4 2.4 61.9 34.6 2.8 2030-2040 -18.5 -5.3 53.0 31.4 -0.5 2000-2040 -49.5 26.1 595.1 300.0 19.5 Houston-Galveston Area Council Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -4.1 7.3 16.0 -13.9 5.8 2010-2020 -6.0 3.8 10.9 -3.8 2.9 2020-2030 -5.4 -0.6 8.2 2.2 0.3 2030-2040 -6.8 -4.9 6.5 -16.9 -2.7 2000-2040 -20.6 5.3 48.3 -29.6 6.3 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 -7.1 10.0 44.4 12.5 11.9 2010-2020 -8.2 6.9 33.6 18.9 10.1 2020-2030 -7.5 1.8 28.2 20.4 7.9 2030-2040 -8.8 -2.8 24.5 7.8 5.7 2000-2040 -28.1 16.3 208.0 73.6 40.3 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -10.0 12.2 79.7 44.4 19.1 2010-2020 -11.0 8.8 60.5 44.6 19.5 2020-2030 -10.1 2.1 46.9 41.0 17.3 2030-2040 -10.9 -4.1 39.4 31.9 15.7 2000-2040 -35.8 19.7 490.2 288.4 93.1 Golden Crescent Regional Planning Commission Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 3.2 19.4 18.3 -50.0 15.0 2010-2020 -3.6 11.7 11.2 0.0 8.2 2020-2030 -3.2 -5.1 12.4 100.0 3.2 2030-2040 0.0 -2.9 8.8 -50.0 3.3 2000-2040 -3.8 22.9 61.0 -50.0 32.5 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 4.3 20.6 29.5 0.0 20.4 2010-2020 -9.7 14.0 21.6 -50.0 12.5 2020-2030 -4.3 -5.1 17.2 100.0 6.0 2030-2040 -3.2 -2.4 14.2 -50.0 6.5 2000-2040 -12.7 27.4 110.6 -50.0 52.9 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -0.6 24.5 42.4 50.0 26.1 2010-2020 -13.1 16.9 30.6 -33.3 17.7 2020-2030 -14.4 -2.7 20.0 100.0 7.8 2030-2040 -14.1 -2.9 14.5 50.0 6.2 2000-2040 -36.4 37.5 155.3 200.0 69.9 Alamo Area Council of Governments Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -2.3 7.1 13.6 8.3 9.4 2010-2020 -6.5 1.6 8.8 0.0 5.0 2020-2030 -4.7 -3.8 7.0 3.8 3.3 2030-2040 -4.8 -7.2 4.2 -11.1 1.0 2000-2040 -17.0 -2.8 37.8 0.0 19.9 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 -1.4 13.0 23.5 41.7 16.9 2010-2020 -4.8 8.2 17.7 35.3 12.5 2020-2030 -4.3 2.2 13.2 26.1 9.0 2030-2040 -3.6 -0.7 9.3 20.7 6.2 2000-2040 -13.5 23.9 79.7 191.7 52.2 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -0.7 18.9 33.3 108.3 24.5 2010-2020 -3.6 14.4 24.8 60.0 18.9 2020-2030 -4.6 6.7 16.8 67.5 12.7 2030-2040 -3.3 1.6 10.9 53.0 8.2 2000-2040 -11.7 47.5 115.4 754.2 80.5 South Texas Development Council Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 12.8 16.7 19.6 200.0 19.1 2010-2020 0.0 14.3 17.8 166.7 16.7 2020-2030 -11.4 -25.0 20.4 -12.5 17.2 2030-2040 -6.4 8.3 16.1 28.6 14.8 2000-2040 -6.4 8.3 96.9 800.0 87.0 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 16.7 16.7 37.3 200.0 35.4 2010-2020 4.4 14.3 31.8 200.0 29.9 2020-2030 -11.6 -25.0 26.5 -11.1 23.4 2030-2040 -8.3 -16.7 22.6 50.0 21.1 2000-2040 -1.3 -16.7 180.9 1100.0 162.7 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 16.7 16.7 56.8 200.0 52.7 2010-2020 7.7 7.1 45.4 233.3 42.8 2020-2030 -10.2 -33.3 29.7 10.0 27.0 2030-2040 -10.2 -20.0 24.8 36.4 23.3 2000-2040 1.3 -33.3 268.8 1400.0 241.5 Coastal Bend Council of Governments Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -2.7 12.1 14.0 42.9 9.7 2010-2020 -4.9 5.2 9.6 -10.0 5.9 2020-2030 -5.9 -3.2 7.5 0.0 3.5 2030-2040 -5.0 -7.1 4.9 22.2 1.8 2000-2040 -17.3 6.1 40.8 57.1 22.4 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 -4.0 15.2 27.8 71.4 18.5 2010-2020 -6.2 9.9 20.9 8.3 14.2 2020-2030 -8.0 -1.1 15.5 23.1 9.8 2030-2040 -7.5 -5.4 11.4 12.5 7.1 2000-2040 -23.4 18.6 98.7 157.1 59.1 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -6.1 19.7 42.3 142.9 27.8 2010-2020 -9.8 14.4 32.0 17.6 22.4 2020-2030 -14.4 0.0 20.2 25.0 13.5 2030-2040 -13.5 -5.1 13.7 56.0 9.4 2000-2040 -37.3 30.0 156.6 457.1 94.3 Lower Rio Grande Valley Development Council Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 2.6 6.7 21.8 25.0 19.2 2010-2020 -4.4 14.1 17.5 0.0 15.0 2020-2030 -4.2 -5.5 18.7 -20.0 16.3 2030-2040 -2.1 -8.7 14.1 25.0 12.6 2000-2040 -8.0 5.0 93.8 25.0 79.4 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 0.4 8.3 35.5 50.0 30.7 2010-2020 -6.2 15.4 28.4 50.0 24.9 2020-2030 -7.8 -6.7 24.6 33.3 21.9 2030-2040 -7.2 -11.4 19.9 33.3 18.2 2000-2040 -19.4 3.3 160.1 300.0 135.0 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 -2.8 13.3 49.2 100.0 42.1 2010-2020 -13.6 16.2 37.8 87.5 33.1 2020-2030 -15.7 -10.1 27.4 53.3 24.6 2030-2040 -18.3 0.0 21.2 73.9 19.6 2000-2040 -42.1 18.3 217.3 900.0 182.0 Texoma Council of Governments Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 0.5 24.2 25.0 66.7 10.3 2010-2020 -3.5 4.8 15.0 -20.0 0.7 2020-2030 -2.6 2.3 18.8 0.0 0.6 2030-2040 -5.3 -1.3 3.7 -50.0 -3.1 2000-2040 -10.6 31.4 77.1 -33.3 8.3 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 2.4 25.7 60.4 66.7 13.5 2010-2020 -1.8 1.6 28.6 40.0 1.6 2020-2030 -3.2 3.5 32.3 28.6 2.4 2030-2040 -4.3 -1.1 21.4 -11.1 -0.5 2000-2040 -6.8 30.6 231.3 166.7 17.4 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 2.4 25.2 83.3 166.7 14.6 2010-2020 -3.2 4.7 59.1 25.0 4.4 2020-2030 -6.7 5.3 45.0 50.0 3.9 2030-2040 -10.3 0.7 39.9 26.7 1.9 2000-2040 -17.1 39.0 491.7 533.3 26.6 Central Texas Council of Governments Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 5.2 17.1 28.6 -11.1 13.8 2010-2020 -0.7 7.0 9.8 0.0 4.5 2020-2030 -1.3 -0.2 12.3 25.0 1.6 2030-2040 1.7 -1.0 6.2 -30.0 1.2 2000-2040 4.8 23.7 68.4 -22.2 22.3 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 6.8 31.9 49.7 11.1 24.1 2010-2020 -1.9 16.3 28.6 40.0 12.1 2020-2030 -2.7 6.4 27.4 28.6 7.9 2030-2040 -3.3 4.0 19.9 16.7 5.8 2000-2040 -1.5 69.8 194.2 133.3 58.9 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 6.4 48.1 76.9 66.7 35.3 2010-2020 -4.3 25.9 48.6 33.3 20.5 2020-2030 -8.9 12.0 43.5 70.0 14.3 2030-2040 -11.8 5.2 31.4 41.2 9.7 2000-2040 -18.2 119.6 395.6 433.3 104.3 Middle Rio Grande Development Council Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 12.6 0.0 21.8 0.0 19.4 2010-2020 0.0 12.5 15.1 100.0 12.9 2020-2030 -5.1 -14.8 12.6 0.0 9.2 2030-2040 -3.2 8.7 12.1 -50.0 10.1 2000-2040 3.4 4.2 77.0 0.0 62.0 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2000-2010 13.8 0.0 25.5 0.0 22.5 2010-2020 -2.0 16.7 16.5 100.0 13.9 2020-2030 -10.3 -14.3 13.4 0.0 9.3 2030-2040 -1.1 4.2 10.8 0.0 9.4 2000-2040 -1.1 4.2 83.7 100.0 66.7 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2000-2010 14.9 12.5 26.4 100.0 24.1 2010-2020 -13.0 7.4 13.5 50.0 9.4 2020-2030 -5.7 -6.9 9.5 0.0 7.0 2030-2040 -14.6 7.4 4.7 33.3 2.9 2000-2040 -19.5 20.8 64.4 300.0 49.5 ___________________________________ Source: Derived by the authors from Texas Population Estimates and Projections Program, Projections of the Population of Texas and Counties in Texas by Age, Sex, and Race/Ethnicity for 2000-2040, 2001. Texas Youth Commission, On-Hand Populations, 1995-2001, [machine readable data files], 2002a. ______________________________________________________________________