Table 9.10 Percent of Projected Prison Population by Race/Ethnicity for the State of Texas and Council of Government Regions in Texas in 2000 and Projections to 2040 Assuming Alternative Projection Scenarios ______________________________________________________________________ Year Anglo Black Hispanic Other ______________________________________________________________________ State of Texas All Scenarios 2000 30.9 43.5 25.2 0.4 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 27.8 44.3 27.6 0.3 2020 25.6 44.6 29.5 0.3 2030 24.2 43.6 31.9 0.3 2040 23.0 42.0 34.7 0.3 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 26.3 43.0 30.3 0.4 2020 22.7 42.1 34.8 0.4 2030 20.0 40.0 39.5 0.5 2040 17.8 37.2 44.5 0.5 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 24.7 41.7 33.1 0.5 2020 19.8 39.1 40.5 0.6 2030 16.1 35.6 47.6 0.7 2040 13.1 31.5 54.6 0.8 Panhandle Regional Planning Commission All Scenarios 2000 46.1 24.0 29.3 0.6 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 42.1 24.7 32.7 0.5 2020 37.8 25.4 36.3 0.5 2030 36.2 24.2 39.2 0.4 2040 34.9 22.7 42.0 0.4 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 39.7 24.3 35.4 0.6 2020 33.4 24.5 41.4 0.7 2030 29.6 23.1 46.7 0.6 2040 26.1 21.4 51.8 0.7 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 36.9 24.2 38.2 0.7 2020 28.2 23.8 47.2 0.8 2030 21.9 21.7 55.5 0.9 2040 16.6 18.9 63.5 1.0 South Plains Association of Governments All Scenarios 2000 25.7 32.2 41.9 0.2 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 22.9 32.6 44.2 0.3 2020 20.7 32.8 46.3 0.2 2030 19.0 32.0 48.8 0.2 2040 18.0 30.3 51.5 0.2 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 21.5 32.4 45.8 0.3 2020 18.1 32.4 49.2 0.3 2030 15.8 31.4 52.5 0.3 2040 13.8 30.0 55.8 0.4 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 19.9 32.5 47.3 0.3 2020 15.6 32.6 51.4 0.4 2030 12.3 31.9 55.3 0.5 2040 9.9 30.4 58.9 0.8 NORTEX Regional Planning Commission All Scenarios 2000 55.8 30.9 13.1 0.2 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 51.3 33.2 15.1 0.4 2020 48.9 34.9 15.9 0.3 2030 47.3 34.7 17.7 0.3 2040 46.0 34.0 19.7 0.3 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 50.1 33.1 16.4 0.4 2020 46.0 34.5 19.0 0.5 2030 42.9 34.4 22.1 0.6 2040 40.0 33.5 26.0 0.5 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 47.9 33.0 18.6 0.5 2020 40.8 34.8 23.9 0.5 2030 35.6 33.4 30.3 0.7 2040 30.2 31.9 37.0 0.9 North Central Texas Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 34.0 51.6 13.8 0.6 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 30.8 53.0 15.7 0.5 2020 28.5 54.0 17.0 0.5 2030 26.9 54.1 18.5 0.5 2040 25.7 53.4 20.4 0.5 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 28.8 52.2 18.4 0.6 2020 24.4 52.1 22.8 0.7 2030 21.1 50.7 27.4 0.8 2040 18.4 47.9 32.9 0.8 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 26.8 51.1 21.4 0.7 2020 20.8 48.9 29.4 0.9 2030 16.3 45.1 37.5 1.1 2040 12.8 39.6 46.4 1.2 Ark-Tex Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 46.2 50.3 3.2 0.3 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 42.1 54.3 3.2 0.4 2020 39.6 56.4 3.6 0.4 2030 39.3 56.5 3.8 0.4 2040 39.8 55.8 4.1 0.3 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 41.0 54.9 3.7 0.4 2020 37.7 57.4 4.5 0.4 2030 36.6 57.7 5.3 0.4 2040 36.1 57.7 5.9 0.3 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 40.1 55.2 4.3 0.4 2020 35.7 58.1 5.8 0.4 2030 33.1 58.7 7.7 0.5 2040 30.8 58.6 9.9 0.7 East Texas Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 45.1 50.6 4.2 0.1 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 41.7 53.2 5.0 0.1 2020 39.4 54.7 5.8 0.1 2030 38.8 54.6 6.5 0.1 2040 38.3 54.1 7.5 0.1 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 40.8 52.9 6.2 0.1 2020 37.6 53.5 8.7 0.2 2030 35.7 52.2 11.9 0.2 2040 33.6 50.0 16.2 0.2 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 39.9 52.2 7.7 0.2 2020 35.4 51.0 13.3 0.3 2030 31.2 47.4 21.0 0.4 2040 26.1 41.3 32.1 0.5 West Central Texas Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 49.5 24.1 26.1 0.3 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 45.6 25.7 28.4 0.3 2020 42.6 26.2 31.0 0.2 2030 40.9 25.6 33.3 0.2 2040 39.5 24.2 36.1 0.2 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 43.8 26.1 29.8 0.3 2020 38.8 27.4 33.5 0.3 2030 35.8 27.2 36.6 0.4 2040 33.1 26.3 40.2 0.4 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 41.6 26.9 31.1 0.4 2020 33.8 29.4 36.3 0.5 2030 28.9 29.7 40.5 0.9 2040 24.7 29.3 45.0 1.0 Rio Grande Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 19.2 8.4 72.1 0.3 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 16.1 8.2 75.4 0.3 2020 14.0 7.9 77.9 0.2 2030 12.2 7.0 80.6 0.2 2040 11.1 6.5 82.2 0.2 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 13.3 7.5 78.9 0.3 2020 9.6 6.7 83.4 0.3 2030 7.4 5.7 86.6 0.3 2040 5.6 5.2 88.8 0.4 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 10.9 6.8 81.9 0.4 2020 6.3 5.6 87.7 0.4 2030 4.2 4.5 90.8 0.5 2040 2.9 3.8 92.7 0.6 Permian Basin Regional Planning Commission All Scenarios 2000 34.6 23.2 42.0 0.2 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 32.1 23.4 44.3 0.2 2020 28.7 24.6 46.5 0.2 2030 26.1 24.2 49.6 0.1 2040 24.9 22.8 52.2 0.1 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 29.4 23.4 47.0 0.2 2020 24.2 24.2 51.4 0.2 2030 20.3 23.5 56.0 0.2 2040 17.6 21.9 60.3 0.2 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 26.4 23.7 49.7 0.2 2020 19.5 23.7 56.5 0.3 2030 14.4 22.6 62.7 0.3 2040 11.1 20.3 68.2 0.4 Concho Valley Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 44.2 13.1 42.6 0.1 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 39.5 13.7 46.7 0.1 2020 36.0 13.9 50.0 0.1 2030 33.4 13.8 52.7 0.1 2040 31.6 13.1 55.3 0.0 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 36.7 13.5 49.6 0.2 2020 31.0 13.3 55.6 0.1 2030 26.6 13.1 60.2 0.1 2040 23.4 12.1 64.5 0.0 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 34.1 13.1 52.6 0.2 2020 25.6 12.8 61.4 0.2 2030 20.1 12.6 67.2 0.1 2040 16.0 11.3 72.5 0.2 Heart of Texas Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 35.8 52.8 11.3 0.1 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 31.8 55.5 12.5 0.2 2020 29.3 57.3 13.3 0.1 2030 27.7 57.7 14.5 0.1 2040 27.3 56.4 16.2 0.1 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 30.3 54.6 14.9 0.2 2020 26.5 55.0 18.2 0.3 2030 23.7 54.3 21.8 0.2 2040 21.7 50.9 27.1 0.3 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 28.3 53.5 17.9 0.3 2020 23.1 51.7 24.9 0.3 2030 18.5 48.8 32.2 0.5 2040 14.6 42.6 42.2 0.6 Capital Area Planning Council All Scenarios 2000 34.9 37.4 27.4 0.3 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 31.4 37.0 31.3 0.3 2020 28.5 37.2 34.0 0.3 2030 26.5 36.5 36.7 0.3 2040 25.6 35.1 39.0 0.3 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 29.8 35.0 34.9 0.3 2020 25.8 33.1 40.7 0.4 2030 22.9 30.6 46.1 0.4 2040 20.6 28.0 51.0 0.4 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 28.2 33.0 38.4 0.4 2020 23.1 29.2 47.3 0.4 2030 18.9 25.6 55.0 0.5 2040 15.4 22.4 61.7 0.5 Brazos Valley Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 25.5 62.5 11.4 0.6 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 22.0 65.1 12.4 0.5 2020 19.7 66.7 13.2 0.4 2030 19.1 66.9 13.6 0.4 2040 19.5 65.6 14.5 0.4 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 22.6 63.4 13.5 0.5 2020 20.1 63.2 16.2 0.5 2030 18.9 62.5 18.1 0.5 2040 18.7 60.2 20.6 0.5 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 22.5 61.9 15.1 0.5 2020 19.8 59.7 20.0 0.5 2030 17.8 56.7 24.9 0.6 2040 16.5 52.7 30.1 0.7 Deep East Texas Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 46.7 48.6 4.5 0.2 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 42.6 52.3 4.9 0.2 2020 40.8 53.7 5.3 0.2 2030 40.1 53.6 6.1 0.2 2040 40.0 53.0 6.8 0.2 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 42.3 51.9 5.6 0.2 2020 40.7 52.1 7.0 0.2 2030 39.5 51.2 9.1 0.2 2040 38.6 49.6 11.6 0.2 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 42.3 50.6 6.8 0.3 2020 39.9 50.0 9.8 0.3 2030 37.4 47.9 14.2 0.5 2040 34.6 44.2 20.4 0.8 South East Texas Regional Planning Commission All Scenarios 2000 33.0 63.4 2.9 0.7 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 30.2 66.3 2.9 0.6 2020 27.6 68.9 3.0 0.5 2030 26.3 70.0 3.2 0.5 2040 26.1 69.9 3.5 0.5 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 28.4 67.3 3.5 0.8 2020 24.6 70.0 4.6 0.8 2030 21.9 71.3 5.9 0.9 2040 20.2 71.0 7.7 1.1 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 26.7 68.1 4.3 0.9 2020 21.2 70.5 7.0 1.3 2030 17.1 70.3 11.0 1.6 2040 13.9 66.9 17.0 2.2 Houston-Galveston Area Council All Scenarios 2000 25.8 55.3 18.4 0.5 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 23.4 56.1 20.1 0.4 2020 21.3 56.6 21.7 0.4 2030 20.1 56.1 23.4 0.4 2040 19.3 54.8 25.6 0.3 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 21.4 54.4 23.7 0.5 2020 17.9 52.8 28.8 0.5 2030 15.3 49.9 34.2 0.6 2040 13.3 45.8 40.3 0.6 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 19.5 52.2 27.7 0.6 2020 14.6 47.5 37.2 0.7 2030 11.2 41.3 46.6 0.9 2040 8.6 34.3 56.1 1.0 Golden Crescent Regional Planning Commission All Scenarios 2000 24.0 33.6 42.3 0.1 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 21.4 34.9 43.6 0.1 2020 19.1 36.0 44.8 0.1 2030 18.0 33.1 48.8 0.1 2040 17.4 31.1 51.4 0.1 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 20.8 33.6 45.5 0.1 2020 16.6 34.1 49.2 0.1 2030 15.1 30.5 54.3 0.1 2040 13.7 28.0 58.3 0.0 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 18.8 33.2 47.8 0.2 2020 14.0 32.9 53.0 0.1 2030 11.1 29.7 59.0 0.2 2040 9.0 27.2 63.6 0.2 Alamo Area Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 18.4 19.0 62.4 0.2 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 16.4 18.6 64.8 0.2 2020 14.5 18.1 67.2 0.2 2030 13.5 16.8 69.5 0.2 2040 12.7 15.4 71.7 0.2 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 15.5 18.4 65.9 0.2 2020 13.1 17.7 68.9 0.3 2030 11.5 16.6 71.6 0.3 2040 10.4 15.5 73.7 0.4 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 14.7 18.2 66.8 0.3 2020 11.9 17.5 70.1 0.5 2030 10.0 16.6 72.7 0.7 2040 8.9 15.6 74.5 1.0 South Texas Development Council All Scenarios 2000 9.1 1.4 89.4 0.1 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 8.6 1.4 89.7 0.3 2020 7.4 1.3 90.6 0.7 2030 5.5 0.9 93.1 0.5 2040 4.5 0.8 94.1 0.6 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 7.8 1.2 90.7 0.3 2020 6.3 1.1 92.0 0.6 2030 4.6 0.6 94.4 0.4 2040 3.5 0.4 95.6 0.5 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 7.0 1.1 91.7 0.2 2020 5.3 0.8 93.4 0.5 2030 3.7 0.4 95.4 0.5 2040 2.7 0.3 96.5 0.5 Coastal Bend Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 24.6 12.0 63.2 0.2 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 21.9 12.2 65.7 0.2 2020 19.7 12.1 68.0 0.2 2030 17.9 11.3 70.6 0.2 2040 16.7 10.4 72.7 0.2 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 20.0 11.6 68.1 0.3 2020 16.3 11.2 72.2 0.3 2030 13.7 10.1 75.9 0.3 2040 11.9 8.9 78.9 0.3 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 18.1 11.2 70.3 0.4 2020 13.3 10.5 75.9 0.3 2030 10.1 9.2 80.3 0.4 2040 8.0 8.0 83.5 0.5 Lower Rio Grande Valley Development Council All Scenarios 2000 12.7 1.6 85.6 0.1 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 10.8 1.5 87.6 0.1 2020 9.0 1.5 89.4 0.1 2030 7.4 1.2 91.3 0.1 2040 6.4 1.0 92.5 0.1 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 9.7 1.4 88.8 0.1 2020 7.2 1.3 91.3 0.2 2030 5.4 1.0 93.4 0.2 2040 4.3 0.7 94.8 0.2 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 8.6 1.3 89.9 0.2 2020 5.7 1.1 93.0 0.2 2030 3.8 0.8 95.1 0.3 2040 2.6 0.7 96.3 0.4 Texoma Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 59.2 36.2 4.3 0.3 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 53.9 40.8 4.9 0.4 2020 51.7 42.4 5.6 0.3 2030 50.0 43.1 6.6 0.3 2040 48.9 43.9 7.0 0.2 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 53.4 40.1 6.1 0.4 2020 51.7 40.1 7.7 0.5 2030 48.9 40.5 9.9 0.7 2040 47.0 40.3 12.1 0.6 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 52.9 39.6 6.9 0.6 2020 49.1 39.7 10.5 0.7 2030 44.1 40.2 14.6 1.1 2040 38.8 39.8 20.1 1.3 Central Texas Council of Governments All Scenarios 2000 40.8 44.3 14.5 0.4 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 37.7 45.6 16.4 0.3 2020 35.9 46.6 17.2 0.3 2030 34.9 45.8 19.0 0.3 2040 35.1 44.8 19.9 0.2 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 35.2 47.0 17.5 0.3 2020 30.8 48.8 20.0 0.4 2030 27.8 48.1 23.6 0.5 2040 25.4 47.3 26.8 0.5 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 32.2 48.5 18.9 0.4 2020 25.6 50.6 23.3 0.5 2030 20.4 49.6 29.3 0.7 2040 16.4 47.6 35.1 0.9 Middle Rio Grande Development Council All Scenarios 2000 15.9 4.4 79.5 0.2 Assuming Rates of Zero Net Migration (0.0 Scenario) 2010 14.9 3.7 81.2 0.2 2020 13.2 3.7 82.8 0.3 2030 11.6 2.9 85.3 0.2 2040 10.2 2.8 86.9 0.1 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 (0.5 Scenario) 2010 14.8 3.6 81.5 0.1 2020 12.6 3.7 83.4 0.3 2030 10.4 2.9 86.5 0.2 2040 9.5 2.7 87.6 0.2 Assuming Rates of Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 (1.0 Scenario) 2010 14.7 4.0 81.0 0.3 2020 11.7 3.9 84.0 0.4 2030 10.3 3.4 85.9 0.4 2040 8.6 3.5 87.4 0.5 ___________________________________ Source: Derived by the authors from Texas Population Estimates and Projections Program, Projections of the Population of Texas and Counties in Texas by Age, Sex, and Race/Ethnicity for 2000-2040, 2001. Texas Youth Commission, On-Hand Populations, 1995-2001, [machine readable data files], 2002a. ______________________________________________________________________