New Texas State Data Center Population Projections from The University of Texas at San Antonio

Projections Show Rapid Population Growth, Diversification, and Aging,
but also
Increasing Disparities in The Levels and Distribution of Growth if Recent Trends Continue Point to a Texas Population that Is Growing Rapidly, Increasingly Diverse and Aging

Introduction

The Texas Population Projections and Estimates Program in the Texas State Data Center and The Office of the State Demographer in the Institute for Demographic and Socioeconomic Research at The University of Texas at San Antonio today released revised post-2000 Census population projections for the State of Texas and all counties in the State for the period from 2000-2040. These are projections of the total population and population by single years of age for each sex for Anglo, Black, Hispanic, and Other (consisting primarily of non-Hispanic Asians and Native Americans but also persons from Other [other than Anglo, Black, and Hispanic] racial/ethnic groups) racial/ethnic groups for each year from 2001 through 2040 based on base data from the 2000 Census of Population and Housing and patterns which have become evident in the first years of the new century. These projections also provide a scenario that takes into account post-2000 patterns of population change.

Four alternative scenarios are shown which are based on different assumptions about age, sex and race/ethnicity specific rates of net migration (the scenarios use common assumptions about fertility and mortality). One scenario assumes "Zero Migration" (the 0.0 scenario) thus demonstrating what the size and characteristics of the population will be if population change occurs only as a result of births and deaths (i.e., that migration into and out of the State or any given county is equal or that no in or out-migration occurs). It is provided largely for comparison purposes and is seen as unlikely to characterize the actual patterns that will occur in counties in the State in the coming decades. The second scenario assumes "net migration equal to one-half of 1990-2000" (the 0.5 scenario) levels of age, sex, and race/ethnicity-specific rates of net migration. For most counties this scenario produces a level of growth that is lower than the rate of growth of the 1990s but slightly higher than those in the 1980s (in percentage terms but not in numerical terms). The third scenario assumes "net migration equal to 1990-2000" (the 1.0 scenario) levels of age, sex, and race/ethnicity-specific rates of net migration, thereby assuming that the rates of age, sex, and race/ethnicity-specific net migration of the 1990s will continue from 2000 through 2040. These three scenarios are nearly identical to those reported in 2004 with the exception that they reflect updated projections for special populations such as University enrollments. In all other regards, a review of post-2000 data suggested that these three scenarios, which already incorporated post 2000 changes in birth and death rates (reported in the 2004 revised projections) were still useful for projecting long-term patterns of change for the state and that changes in birth and death rates since the release of the 2004 projections were largely in accordance with the assumptions in these first three scenarios as reflected in their revisions for 2004. In sum, the first three projections continue to display patterns of population change that may characterize the long-term trends in many Texas areas.

The fourth scenario utilizes migration patterns from the 2000 to 2004 period, thus reflecting additional post-2000 patterns. Because of a post-2000 slowdown in Texas population growth compared to that of the 1990s, this scenario produces projections that are often lower than either the 1.0 or 0.5 projections for many areas (e.g., counties) but produces higher projections for some central city and suburban areas (e.g., counties). Many of the areas where 2000-2004 slower growth is indicated are rural counties. Thus of the 173 counties where there is slower growth under the 2000-2004 scenario than under 1990s based scenarios 132 are nonmetropolitan counties and most of the others are in metropolitan areas in West Texas where 2000-2004 growth has also been slower. These include counties in the Amarillo, Lubbock, Odessa, and El Paso areas as well as counties impacted by recent military deployments such as the Temple area and counties in the Corpus Christi area. The 2000-2004 projections thus show an increased concentration of growth in suburban areas and an increasing number of counties in West Texas and the Panhandle that are showing declines. The 2000-2004 projections also show more rapid racial/ethnic diversification than that for several of the 1990s based projections. Although the 2000-2004 scenario generally shows patterns of slower overall population growth than the 1.0 scenario (and often the 0.5 scenario as well), the 2000-2004 scenario generally shows racial/ethnic compositions closer to those from the 1.0 scenario than those from other scenarios for most areas. In sum, although the patterns of the 2000 to 2004 period may change in the coming years, projections based on them nevertheless provide insight into the changes that would occur in the size and distribution of the Texas population if the trends of the 2000 to 2004 period were to continue.

Although for any given area the 0.5, 1.0 or 2000-2004 scenario may turn out to be the most accurate, for most areas the State Demographer suggests that the 2000-2004 scenario may be most appropriate for use for short-term (i.e., 2-10 years) planning purposes but that the 0.5 scenario is the most appropriate for long-term planning purposes. This recommendation is based on the fact that patterns from the recent past are most likely to characterize the immediate future while the growth rates under the 1.0 scenario are sufficiently high that they are unlikely to continue over extended periods of time into the future and the 2000-2004 projection suggests patterns of change (particularly decline) that may not continue over the long term. For all users, however, it is recommended that they evaluate changes in their area relative to past and current demographic patterns before choosing a scenario for their particular use. All users are cautioned to recognize that projections of the population (as with projections in general) are subject to error and should be used with full recognition of their assumptions and limitations. A more detailed description of the assumptions used in these projections can be found in the methodology description available by clicking on the "Methodology for Population Projections" site shown below.

Below we present a summary of some of the most important statewide, regional, metropolitan, and county patterns shown in the projections. Highlights of the findings are presented first followed by a more detailed description of the findings. Clearly such summaries can only provide a limited view of the extensive detail available in the projections. The reader is encouraged to review the projections in the greater detail available on the Texas State Data Center website.

Highlights Of the Texas State Data Center's Projections for Texas

The revised post-2000 projections reported here from the Texas State Data Center and Population Estimates and Projections Programs at the University of Texas at San Antonio point to dramatic changes in the population of Texas. Below we highlight findings from these projections. Because of space limitations, the description of substate areas is largely restricted to descriptions of changes under the 2000-2004 and 0.5 projection scenarios that are recommended for use for short-term and long-term planning purposes respectively. Some of the findings include:

For the State

• By 2010, Texas is likely to have 25 million people and by 2040 could have more than 51.7 million people.
• Under all scenarios the projected growth will be substantial. Under the 0.5 scenario, the population increases to nearly 35.8 million by 2040, a percentage increase of 71.5 percent and a 14.9 million person increase from 2000 to 2040 (a numerical increase greater than the State's total population in 1980). Under the 2000-2004 scenario, the population would increase to 43.6 million by roughly 109 percent, by 22.7 million (more than doubling the State's 2000 population and nearly doubling the 2005 estimated population of 22.9 million) and under the rapid growth, 1.0 scenario, Texas population would increase to 51.7 million, by 148 percent, or roughly 30.9 million persons from 2000 to 2040 (an increase greater than the population of California in 1990).
• Growth will substantially exceed that for the nation which the Census Bureau projects to be roughly 49 percent for the 50-year period from 2000 to 2050.
• According to recent Census Bureau estimates, Texas population became less than 50 percent Anglo by July 1, 2004.
• Texas will become a majority Hispanic state, between 2034 and 2035 under the 0.5 scenario, and between 2025 and 2026 under the 1.0 and between 2026 and 2027 under the 2000-2004 scenario.
• It is important to note that despite the slower overall rates of growth shown in the 2000-2004 scenario, the change in the racial/ethnic composition of the population is, in many ways, even more dramatic than in the 1990-2000 based scenarios. For the first time in any projection (which assumes rates of migration other than zero migration) that have been produced by the Office of the State Demographer and the Texas State Data Center the Anglo population is projected to be smaller in 2040 than in 2000, declining by 174,783 or 1.6 percent from 2000 to 2040. The patterns of 2000-2004 if continued would mean that more than 80 percent of the State's population net growth from 2000 to 2040 would result from increases in the Hispanic population (compared to roughly 50 percent in the 1980s and 60 percent of net growth in the 1990s).
• Texas population will show substantial aging. The median age of the population which was 32.3 in 2000 becomes between 38.1 and 38.6 years of age (depending on the scenario) by 2040.
• Under the most rapid (1.0) scenario the population 65 years of age or older becomes at least 15.9 percent of the population by 2040 compared to 9.9 percent in 2000 and, under patterns of slower growth, could be 16 percent of the population. As a result, the population 65 years of age or older that was about 2.1 million in 2000 could be as high as 8.2 million by 2040 and could increase by more than 295 percent. No other age group shows as large an increase.
• Although populations in all racial/ethnic groups will age, the relatively older age of Anglos compared to non-Anglos will continue. The median age of Anglos in 2000 was 38.0 years, for Blacks 29.6, for Hispanics 25.5 years, and for the Other population 31.1 years. In 2040, under the alternative scenarios, the median age would be between 45.6 and 46.2 years for Anglos, between 39.8 and 40.2 years for Blacks, between 34.0 and 35.2 years for Hispanics, and between 48.3 and 49.3 years of age for the Other population.
• Although all projections must be used with care and with full understanding of their inherent limitations, these projections point to an ever increasing, diverse and older Texas population. They suggest that the challenges of population growth and rapid changes in the composition of the population of Texas will remain central aspects of the Texas of tomorrow.

For Regions

The projections for Texas 24 multi-county Councils of Governments show substantial regional differences, including:

• The North Central Texas area is projected to increase by nearly 1.1 million between 2000 and 2010 and by more than 5.0 million between 2000 and 2040 under the 0.5 scenario and by nearly 1.6 million by 2010 and nearly 12.3 million by 2040 under the 1.0 scenario. Under the 2000-2004 scenario, its population increases by 1.4 million from 2000 to 2010 and by 10.3 million from 2000 to 2040.
• The Houston-Galveston area (under the same scenarios) increases between 841,000 and 1.3 million by 2010 and between 3.7 and 8.2 million by 2040, increasing its 2000 population of nearly 4.9 million to between 5.7 and 6.1 million by 2010 and to between 8.6 and 13.0 million by 2040.
• The Capital Area will surpass the Alamo Area to become the third most populous region in Texas. Although the Alamo Area had a 2000 population of 1.8 million in 2000 compared to 1.3 million in the Capital Area by 2040 the Alamo Area is projected to have between 2.6 and 3.2 million compared to between 2.8 and 5.0 million in the Capital Area in 2040.
• Rapid growth is projected to occur in regions along the 1-35 and 1-10 corridors and along the Texas-Mexico Border with slow growth in regions in the Panhandle and West Texas.
• By 2040, Texas will have at least 6 regions with more than 1.0 million people and 2 with at least 8.5 million residents.
• Slow growth in Anglo coupled with rapid growth in non-Anglo populations, particularly Hispanic, populations are projected to be pervasive across the regions of Texas. From 2000 to 2040, 16 regions show declines in their Anglo populations under the 0.5 scenario and 22 under the 2000-2004 scenario. On the other hand, all regions show at least a 74 percent increase in their Hispanic populations from 2000 to 2040 under the 0.5 scenario and at least a 27 percent increase under the 2000-2004 scenario. As a result, by 2040, 11 regions will have more than 50 percent of their residents who are Hispanic by 2040 under the 0.5 scenario and 14 under the 2000-2004 projections and only 7 will be more than 50 percent Anglo under the 0.5 scenario and 4 under the 2000-2004 scenario.
• The aging of the population in all racial/ethnic groups and the younger age of non-Anglos compared to Anglos is pervasive across nearly all the regions of Texas with the median age of Anglos being older than that for Hispanics in all regions except the South Plains Association of Governments (under the 2000-2004 scenario) by 2040.

For Metropolitan Areas

• Texas will have at least five metropolitan areas with more than one million people by 2040 and two with more than 8.0 million people.
• The two largest metropolitan areas in 2000 will remain so in 2040. Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington with a population in 2000 of roughly 5.2 million is projected to increase to more than 10.1 million by 2040 under the 0.5 scenario and to 15.3 million under the 2000-2004 scenario. Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown with 4.7 million residents in 2000 is projected to have between 8.4 million and nearly 11.1 million by 2040 under the same scenarios.
• Austin-Round Rock is projected to surpass San Antonio to become the third largest metropolitan area and McAllen-Edinburg-Mission will surpass El Paso to become the fifth largest metropolitan area. Thus, San Antonio with a population of 1.7 million in 2000 is projected to have a population between 2.5 million and 2.8 million by 2040 under the 0.5 and 2000-2004 scenarios respectively; Austin-Round Rock with a 2000 population of more than 1.2 million is projected to have between 2.7 million and 3.5 million; El Paso with a population of nearly 680,000 in 2000 to have nearly 1.2 million persons under the 0.5 scenario and 900,000 by 2040 under the 2000-2004 scenario; and McAllen-Edinburg-Mission with a population of more than 569,000 in 2000 to have between 1.4 million and 1.6 million.
• One metropolitan area, under the 0.5 scenario, Texarkana, and five under the 2000-2004 scenario, Abilene, Corpus Christi, Lubbock, Wichita Falls, and San Angelo, are projected to decrease in population size from 2000 to 2040. As noted in the general discussion of scenarios above the change in these five declining areas under the 2000-2004 scenario reflect the diversity of growth which occurred in Texas from 2000-2004 that is assumed to continue under the 2000-2004 scenario. These patterns are markedly different than those reflected in the 0.5 (and the 1.0) scenario which reflect 1990s based patterns. Thus, under the 0.5 scenario, the Abilene area increases by 13.3 percent from 2000 to 2040; the Corpus Christi area increases by 50.3 percent, the Lubbock area increases by 20.3 percent, Wichita Falls increases by 13.7 percent, and San Angelo increases by 17.2 percent while Texarkana decreases by 5.7 percent. The sharp reversal in overall patterns of growth from 2000 to 2004 when assumed to continue result in long-term projections that indicate that, if continued the result would be that the Abilene area would decrease by 7.1 percent, the Corpus Christi area would decline by 0.3 percent, the Lubbock Area would decline by 1.7 percent, the Wichita Falls area would decline by 25.4 percent, and the San Angelo metropolitan area would decline by 18.9 percent while the Texarkana metropolitan area would increase by 3.6 percent from 2000 to 2040.
• Rapid diversification is evident across metropolitan areas. Under the 0.5 scenario, Anglo populations decrease in 18 of 25 metropolitan areas between 2000 and 2040, while Black, Hispanic and Other populations increase in all 25 metropolitan areas. Similarly, under the 2000-2004 scenario, Anglo populations decline in all but two metropolitan areas (Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington and Austin-Round Rock), Black populations increase in all but four areas (Beaumont-Port Arthur, Waco, San Angelo, and Brownsville-Harlingen) and Hispanic and Other populations increase in all 25 metropolitan areas. Under both the 0.5 and 2000-2004 scenarios, the proportion of the total population that is Anglo decreases in all 25 metropolitan areas from 2000 to 2040 and is less than 50 percent in at least 19 areas by 2040 while the proportion of the population that is Hispanic increases in all 25 metropolitan areas and is greater than 50 percent in at least 11 areas by 2040.
• Aging is evident across the regions with 23 of 25 metropolitan areas in the State having older median ages in 2040 than in 2000 under all scenarios.

For Counties

• Growth is evident across a majority of Texas counties with 211 counties under the 0.5 scenario and 138 under the 2000-2004 scenario showing population increases from 2000 to 2040. The 116 counties decreasing under the 2000-2004 scenario is more than two and one-half times as large as the 43 declining under the 0.5 scenario suggesting that a continuation of the 2000 to 2004 patterns, coupled with statewide patterns of substantial growth, would increase the concentration of the population in fewer counties. An examination of the gaining and declining counties suggests that a continuation of the 2000 to 2004 patterns would increase populations in suburban and some central city counties and decrease populations in rural counties and some metropolitan counties especially those in the Panhandle and West Texas. For example, the suburban counties of Collin, Rockwall, Fort Bend, Montgomery, Ellis, Parker, and Hays all show more rapid growth under the 2000-2004 scenario than they do under either the 1.0 or 0.5 scenarios. Similarly central city counties, such as Tarrant and Smith, show more rapid growth under the 2000-2004 scenario. On the other hand more urban counties in West Texas and the Panhandle such as Potter, Randall, Lubbock, and Tom Green and a large number of rural counties all show higher projected populations under the 0.5 than the 2000-2004 scenario.
• The general ranking of Texas largest counties are not projected to change substantially under the 0.5 scenario but greater changes could occur if the 2000 to 2004 patterns prevail. Under the 0.5 scenario for example, the population of Harris County increases from 3.4 million in 2000 to more than 5.8 million by 2040, by more than 2.4 million; Dallas County increases from 2.2 million in 2000 to more than 3.9 million in 2040, by more than 1.7 million; Tarrant County increases its population from 1.4 million in 2000 to 2.4 million by 2040, by nearly 992,000; and Collin County would increase to more than 1.3 million. Under the 0.5 scenario, the only major changes are that El Paso County would drop from being the sixth largest county (as it was in 2000) to the ninth largest and Travis would drop from the fifth to the sixth largest while Hidalgo moves up two places to fifth, and Collin and Denton each move up one rank in size.
• Under the 2000-2004 scenario, Harris County's population increases to more than 6.6 million by 2040, by more than 3.2 million from 2000 to 2040; Collin's population increases to nearly 3.3 million, by nearly 2.8 million; and Tarrant's to more than 3.9 million persons by 2040, a 2000 to 2040 increase of nearly 2.5 million. Tarrant's and Collin's growth under the 2000-2004 scenario would be sufficient to make their populations larger than that in Dallas County which would increase to 3.1 million by 2040 by nearly 925,000 persons from 2000 to 2040. As a result, under the 2000-2004 scenario, Tarrant would become the second largest county by 2040 and Collin the third largest while Dallas would fall to fourth place.
• Dramatic changes would also occur for several metropolitan counties if the 2000 to 2004 patterns continue. For example, under the 0.5 scenario Lubbock increases from 242,628 in 2000 to 291,578 in 2040, a numerical increase of nearly 49,000 while under the 2000-2004 scenario its population decreases by 4,185 persons from 2000 to 2040 to 238,443 persons in 2040. Similarly, under the 0.5 scenario, Nueces County increases from 313,645 in 2000 to 454,027, an increase of more than 140,000 but under the 2000-2004 scenario, it decreases to 305,000, a decrease of more than 8,000 people. Clearly such patterns for these areas may change from those projected under the 2000-2004 scenario, but they clearly demonstrate that if 2000 to 2004 patterns are extended into the future, substantial shifts in patterns of population growth will occur.
• Diversity is extensive across Texas counties. Under the 0.5 scenario 166 counties and under the 2000-2004 scenario, 209 counties show absolute numerical declines in their Anglo populations but under the 0.5 scenario only 4 counties show declines in their Hispanic population from 2000 to 2040 and, under the 2000-2004 scenario, only 13 counties show declines in their Hispanic populations.
• Patterns of general aging and differential aging among racial/ethnic groups is evident in Texas counties. In 2000, only Kent county had a median age for Hispanics that exceeded 40 years of age while in 177 counties the median age of Anglos was 40 or greater. In 2040, 54 counties under the 0.5 scenario and 55 counties under the 2000-2004 scenario would have a median age of 40 or greater for Hispanics and 13 and 23 respectively would have a median age for Hispanics that equaled 50 years of age or older but in 237 counties under the 0.5 scenario and 211 under the 2000-2004 scenario Anglos are projected to have a median age of 40 years of age or older and in 48 and 62 counties respectively the median age for Anglos is projected to be greater than 50 years of age by 2040.

Conclusions:

Projections from the Texas State Data Center and Office of the State Demographer indicate that Texas is likely to grow rapidly and to become increasingly diverse and, like the remainder of the nation, to show a general aging of its population. Under any of the likely (non-zero) projections, Texas will be a state with a population that is at least twice as large (at 35,761,201 projected for 2040 under the 0.5 scenario) as in 1990 (when it was 16,986,510) and may be more than three times as large (at 51,707,500 under the 1.0 scenario). Under the 1.0 and 2000-2004 scenarios, it would be at least twice as large by 2040 (with projected populations of 51,707,500 and 43,581,928 respectively) than it was in 2000 (when it had a population of 20,851,820).

Texas population will also be increasingly diverse with estimates indicating that it was already less than one-half Anglo by July 1, 2004 and the three (non-zero) scenarios all suggesting that Texas will be more than 50 percent Hispanic by no later than 2035.

Similarly Texas will become older with the percentage of the population that is 65 years of age increasing from 9.9 percent in 2000 to at least 15.9 percent by 2040. This aging is pervasive across counties in Texas and across all racial/ethnic groups. However, in virtually all counties the median age for Hispanics remains younger than that for other racial/ethnic groups in both 2000 and 2040.

What may suggest the most dramatic changes in population in the Texas State Data Center projections are those evident in the new 2000-2004 projection scenario. This scenario shows the implications for Texas population, if the patterns from 2000 to 2004 were to continue to 2040. The 2000-2004 projections show more than two and one-half times the number of declining counties than under the 0.5 scenario with many of the declining counties being in the Panhandle and West Texas. Although the patterns from 2000 to 2004 may end up not being representative of those for the future, they show that the diversity of growth of the post-2000 period is substantially greater than that in the 1990s and, if continued, would markedly change the population futures for many areas compared to what would be expected in these areas if the patterns of the 1990s continue. Despite the differences in the distribution of growth suggested under this scenario, however, the projections under the 2000-2004 scenario also suggest that although total growth rates may have changed for some areas, the rapid increase in the racial/ethnic diversification and aging of the State's population remain pervasive across the state. In fact, the overall percentages of the population in non-Anglo and older age groups is very similar to that projected in scenarios (such as the 1.0 scenario) in which overall rates of growth are substantially higher. Although the 2000-2004 projections may suggest differences in rates of growth for some areas in Texas, they confirm that the racial/ethnic diversification and aging of the Texas population are likely to be pervasive in Texas in the coming decades.

Detailed Description of Findings from the Texas State Data Center's Projections of the Population of Texas, 2000-2040

Statewide Patterns

The description presented here for the State as a whole regarding short-term patterns for 2000 to 2010 concentrates on projections from the 1.0 and 2000-2004 scenarios because these are the scenarios that are generally producing values closest to those reflected in post-2000 population estimates. The discussion of long-term trends from 2000 to 2040 concentrates on the 0.5 scenario that is seen as most likely to prevail in the long-run and on the 2000-2004 and the 1.0 scenarios as moderate and high-growth alternatives respectively. For additional details on any of the areas noted below the full projections on the Texas State Data Center website should be consulted.

Dramatic Growth

The population projections show expectations of substantial population growth in both the long-term and the short-term (Tables 1-3). For the period from 2000 to 2010, under the 1.0 scenario, the population of the State of Texas would increase to nearly 26.1 million by 2010, by 25.0 percent and a numerical increase that would exceed 5.2 million between 2000 and 2010. This level of growth would substantially outpace the roughly 3.9 million and 22.8 percent increase of the 1990s. Even under the slower growth trends shown in the 2000-2004 scenario, the State would increase its population to roughly 25.1 million by 2010, by 20.4 percent or nearly 4.3 million persons. Thus under either of these projected patterns the population is expected to exceed 25 million persons by 2010.

For the total projection period of 2000 to 2040, the patterns shown are also ones of extensive population increases (Tables 1 and 3). Under the 0.5 scenario, the population increases to nearly 35.8 million by 2040, a percentage increase of 71.5 percent and a 14.9 million person increase from 2000 to 2040 (an increase greater than the State's total population in 1980). Under the 2000-2004 scenario, the population would increase to nearly 43.6 million by roughly 109 percent, by 22.7 million persons (nearly doubling the State's 2005 population of 22.9 million) and under the rapid growth (1.0) scenario, Texas population would increase to 51.7 million, by 148 percent, or roughly 30.9 million persons from 2000 to 2040 (an increase greater than the total population of the State of California in 1990). Although these projection scenarios produce very different total populations by 2040, and all projections for a period nearly 40 years into the future must be viewed with caution, all of them point to Texas as a rapidly growing state in the coming decades with growth that substantially exceeds that expected in the nation. Thus, the Census Bureau released data for the U.S. as a whole in 2004 in which it projected that the U.S. population would increase by roughly 49 percent for the 50-year period from 2000 to 2050. This rate of growth is slower than that projected for Texas for only 40 years under any of the three most likely projection scenarios.

Rapid Diversification

As in previous projections produced by the State Data Center, these projections point to dramatic growth in non-Anglo populations. Under all of the most likely projection scenarios (the 0.5, 1.0 and 2000-2004 scenarios), Texas population becomes less than one-half Anglo before 2010 (between 2005 and 2006, under the 0.5 scenario, between 2004 and 2005, under the 2000-2004 scenario and between 2003 and 2004, under the 1.0 scenario) (see Table 2). Since census estimates suggest that Texas population became less than one-half Anglo by 2004 it appears that racial/ethnic change has been following patterns similar to the 1.0 and 2000-2004 scenarios. Similarly, these projections show that under any of the three (non-zero migration) scenarios Texas will become a majority Hispanic state, (between 2034 and 2035 under the 0.5 scenario, between 2026 and 2027 under the 2000-2004 scenario, and between 2025 and 2026 under the 1.0 scenario).

Non-Anglo populations increase faster and come to form increasing proportions of the total population. Between 2000 and 2040, under the alternative scenarios, the Anglo population increases by between 4.1 and 11.8 percent, while the Black population increase is between 40.5 and 71.0 percent, that for Hispanics between 181.9 and 358.9 percent, and that for Other population groups between 195.8 and 568.7 percent. By 2040, the percentage of the population that would be Anglo would be between 23.9 and 32.2 percent, the percent that would be Black between 8.0 and 9.5 percent, the percent Hispanic between 52.6 and 59.2 percent, and the percentage in Other population groups between 5.7 and 8.9 percent.

These data also suggest that the post-2000 slowdown in Texas population growth that has occurred largely as a result of a decline in domestic migration to Texas results in relatively slower growth in the Anglo than in non-Anglo racial/ethnic groups. This is evident in the fact that while the projected percentage increase from 2000 to 2040 for the Anglo population under the 0.5 scenario is 4.1 percent and 11.8 percent under the 1.0 scenario, it decreases by 1.6 percent under the 2000-2004 scenario that utilizes post-2000 patterns of age, sex, and race/ethnicity specific net migration. This is the first (non-zero migration) projection scenario produced by the Office of the State Demographer projecting an absolute decline in the Anglo population.

Similarly, although the 2000-2004 projection scenario's rate of expected growth in the total population is midway between the 0.5 and 1.0 scenarios (accounting for 49 percent of the difference in the numerical increase in the total projected population for 2040 for the 0.5 compared to the 1.0 scenario), it shows a decline in the Anglo population from 2000 to 2040 but a 1.1 million increase in the Black population, a nearly 18.7 million increase in the Hispanic population and a 3.1 million increase in the Other population from 2000 to 2040. What this suggests is that if the post-2000 patterns of slower growth (compared to the 1990s) continues Anglo population growth would be most impacted by the slowdown and would show an absolute decline over time.

Under any of the projections, however, it is evident that Texas is already a majority non-Anglo state and in 20 to 30 years it will be a majority Hispanic state. Under any of the most likely projection scenarios it is evident that non-Anglo populations will form increasing proportions of the State's population compared to Anglos.

An Aging Population

These projections (under the non-zero scenario) like those from 2004 point to a substantial aging of the population over the coming decades (Tables 4 and 5). Even under the most rapid growth scenario (the 1.0 scenario) which brings the largest number of young adults to the State through migration, the percentage of the population 65 years of age or older becomes at least 15.9 percent of the population by 2040 compared to 9.9 percent in 2000 and, under patterns of slower growth, could be at least 18 percent of the population. As a result, the population 65 years of age or older that was nearly 2.1 million in 2000 could be as high as 8.2 million by 2040. Whereas the percentage growth for the total population under this same (1.0) scenario is 148.0 percent, the population 65 years of age or older would increase by 295.5 percent, roughly twice as fast as the rate of increase in the total population. No other age group shows as large a numerical increase. Thus under the highest rate of projected growth (under the same 1.0 scenario) the population less than 18 years of age increases by 88.3 percent from 2000 to 2040, the population 18-24 years of age by 112.0 percent, the population 25-44 years of age by 134.2 percent, and the population 45-64 years of age by 198.8 percent. The slower growth in younger and the more rapid rates of percentage increases clearly point to an aging population and, as a result, the median age of the population which was 32.3 in 2000 becomes between 38.1 and 38.8 years of age by 2040.

What is also again evident is that the pattern of more rapid growth in older than in younger populations is pervasive across racial/ethnic groups but that the increasing proportion of the population that is non-Anglo is also evident across all age groups. The median age of Anglos in 2000 was 38.0 years, for Blacks 29.6, for Hispanics 25.5 years, and for the Other population 31.1 years. In 2040, under the three most likely (non-zero) alternative scenarios, median age would be between 45.6 and 46.2 years for Anglos, between 39.8 and 40.2 years for Blacks, between 34.0 and 35.2 years for Hispanics, and between 48.3 and 49.3 years of age for the Other population. All racial/ethnic groups show an aging of their populations but the older age structure of Anglos and the younger age structure of non-Anglos continue throughout the projection period.

All age groups show the impacts of increasing diversification, however, even for the population 65 years of age or older under the (1.0) scenario in which the Anglo population increases most rapidly, only 28.4 percent of the net growth in the population in this age group from 2000 to 2040 is due to the Anglo population. Growth in younger populations is even more dependent on non-Anglo populations, particularly Hispanics. For example, under the 1.0 scenario that produces the highest 2040 values for all age and race/ethnicity groups, the net increase in the population under 18 years of age from 2000 to 2040 is roughly 5.2 million but the number of Anglos who are less than 18 years of age actually decreases while the number of Hispanics under 18 increases by more than 5.1 million and accounts for more than 98 percent of the net increase in this age group from 2000 to 2040. What such patterns suggest is that non-Anglos will become an increasingly demographically dominant force in future population trends in Texas.

State Summary

Texas historical pattern of rapid growth is projected to continue. Whereas the Census Bureau has recently projected that the U.S. Population will increase by roughly 49 percent over the 50 year period from 2000 to 2050, Texas is projected to grow by at least 71.5 percent for the 40 year period from 2000 to 2040, adding at least 14.9 million people to the State's population over the next 40 years.

Texas will also become increasingly diverse with Anglos already less than half of the population and coming to account for no more than one-third of the total population by 2040. On the other hand, Hispanics will come to form a majority of the population by no later than 2035 and by 2040 will make up at least 52.6 percent of the total population. By the end of the projection period, Texas will be a majority Hispanic state.

As in the rest of the country, Texas population will age with its median age of 32.3 in 2000 becoming between 38.1 and 38.8 years by 2040. Growth in the population 65 years of age is likely to be twice as rapid as that for the population as a whole. All racial/ethnic groups will show an aging in their populations and non-Anglos will account for a majority of the net growth in populations in all age groups. However, the impact of non-Anglo populations will be greatest at the youngest ages where Hispanics in particular are expected to account for nearly all of the net increase.

Although all projections must be used with care because of the potential for errors in the assumptions on which they are based, particularly for long periods into the future, these projections point to an ever increasing, diverse, and older Texas population. They suggest that the challenges of population growth and of rapid changes in the composition of the population of Texas will remain central aspects of the Texas of tomorrow.

Regional, Metropolitan and County Projections

Below we present a summary of some of the key patterns of change evident for sub-state regions, metropolitan areas, and counties in Texas. Because of the large number of units involved and the need to limit the length of this discussion, the description presented here concentrates on what is seen as the most likely short-term projection scenario, the 2000-2004 scenario, and on the 0.5 scenario that is seen as that scenario most likely to prevail for most areas in the long term. Readers are again reminded, however, that for any given area, the alternative 1.0 scenario may be more appropriate and that they should base their decision on which scenario to use based on a careful analysis of population patterns for their area of interest.

Regional Patterns

Trends in Population Growth

These projections suggest that the largest Councils of Governments (COGs) in the State will become even larger and that growth in percentage terms will be greatest in regions encompassing the Dallas, Houston, San Antonio, and Austin areas and in those along the Texas and Mexico border (see Table 6). The North Central Texas region (containing Dallas and Fort Worth) which had a population of 5.3 million in 2000 is projected to be nearly 6.4 million by 2010 under the 0.5 scenario and 10.3 million by 2040. Under the same scenario, the Houston-Galveston COG increases from nearly 4.9 million in 2000 to nearly 5.7 million in 2010 to nearly 8.6 million by 2040. Under the 2000-2004 scenario, the North Central region would have more than 6.7 million persons by 2010 and nearly15.6 million by 2040 while the Houston-Galveston COG would have nearly 6.0 million in 2010 and more than 11.2 million persons by 2040. Under either scenario, the Alamo Area which was the third largest region in 2000 with roughly 1.8 million people would remain larger than the Capital Area through 2020 but, because it is projected to have slower growth than the Capital Area, would be surpassed in population size by the Capital Area by 2040. The Alamo Area would have nearly 2.3 million compared to 2.0 million persons for the Capital Area in 2020 under the 0.5 scenario and nearly 2.5 compared to 2.3 in 2020 under the 2000-2004 scenario but would have a population of about 2.6 million compared to about 2.8 million for the Capital Area in 2040 under the 0.5 scenario and 2.9 compared to nearly 3.7 million for the Capital region under the 2000-2004 scenario.

Several regions will grow dramatically in numerical and percentage terms. The North Central Texas area is projected to increase by nearly 1.1 million by 2010 and by more than 5.0 million between 2000 and 2040 under the 0.5 scenario and by nearly 1.4 million by 2010 and nearly 10.3 million by 2040 under the 2000-2004 scenario. For these same scenarios, the Houston-Galveston area increases between 841,000 and 1.1 million by 2010 and between 3.7 and 6.4 million by 2040. The Capital Area increases between 327,000 and 426,000 by 2010 and between nearly 1.5 and 2.3 million by 2040. The Lower Rio Grande increase is between about 266,000 and 315,000 by 2010 and between 1.2 and 1.3 million by 2040. The Alamo Area increases is between about 248,000 and 330,000 by 2010 and between 826,000 and 1.1 million by 2040. Although all of these areas, with the exception of th Lower Rio Grande region, had more than 1.0 million people in 2000, by 2040 under the 0.5 scenario, the Lower Rio Grande region would have more than 2.1 million persons, the Rio Grande 1.2 million and East Texas would have more than 1.0 million residents and under the 2000-2004 scenario the Lower Rio Grande would have more than 2.2 million, East Texas more than 1.1 million, and the Rio Grande nearly 931,000.

Relative to percentage increases, the South Texas region increased by 159.0 percent the Lower Rio Grande region by 132 percent between 2000 and 2040 under the 0.5 scenario but under the 2000-2004 scenario the North Central Texas and Capital Area regions both increase by more than 172 percent and the Houston-Galveston, South Texas and Lower Rio Grande regions increase by more than 131 percent from 2000 to 2040. What this suggests is that the 2000-2004 period has produced increased growth in the largest metropolitan regions but that growth will be substantial in both the metropolitan crescent from Dallas to San Antonio to Houston and along the Texas-Mexico Border.

At the same time growth continues to be slowest in the Panhandle and West Texas. For example, under the 2000-2004 scenario the Coastal Bend, South Plains, West Central Texas, South Plains, and Concho Valley would all show population declines from 2000 to 2040 and the Ark-Tex would increase by only 1.3 percent and the Golden Crescent by only 3.6 percent. Although all regions show at least some growth between 2000 and 2040 under the 0.5 scenario, the same Panhandle and West Texas areas continue to be the slowest growing in the State under the 0.5 scenario.

Trends in Diversity

The COG regions of Texas clearly display both the slow growth in Anglo populations and the rapid growth in non-Anglo populations evident for the State as a whole (Table 7). For example, from 2000 to 2010, 11 regions show absolute declines in Anglo populations under the 0.5 scenario and only two regions (North Central Texas and the Capital Area regions) show increases of greater than 100,000 and under the 2000-2004 scenario 16 show such declines. For the total projection period from 2000 to 2040, 16 regions show declines in their Anglo populations under the 0.5 scenario and 22 under the 2000-2004 scenario. Only the North Central Texas and Capital Area regions have increases of greater than 15 percent (6 others show some increases) in their Anglo populations under the 0.5 scenario and these two regions both show increases of greater than 35 percent in their Anglo populations under the 2000-2004 scenario. On the other hand, all regions show at least a 74 percent increase in their Hispanic populations from 2000 to 2040 under the 0.5 scenario and at least a 27 percent increase under the 2000-2004 scenario. As a result of such trends, by 2040, 11 regions will have more than 50 percent of their residents who are Hispanic under the 0.5 scenario and 14 under the 2000-2004 projection and only 7 will be more than 50 percent Anglo under the 0.5 scenario and 5 under the 2000-2004 scenario.

Trends in the Aging of the Population

The aging of the population is pervasive across the regions (Table 8) with the median age of Anglos generally older than that for the Black and Hispanic populations. Younger median ages are generally evident for more heavily non-Anglo and faster growing areas because of the younger populations associated with non-Anglo populations and the fact that faster growing regions are generally more dependent on migration as the source of their growth and migration tends to also involve younger populations.

Metropolitan Patterns

Population Change in Metropolitan Areas

The projections for Texas metropolitan areas are shown for the 2003 definitions for metropolitan areas. Figure 1 provides a map showing the boundaries of these areas. Under any of the most likely scenarios (Table 9) metropolitan areas in Texas grow dramatically with Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington with a population in 2000 of roughly 5.2 million increasing to more than 10.1 million by 2040 under the 0.5 scenario and to 15.3 million under the 2000-2004 scenario. The equivalent values for Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown are 4.7 million in 2000 and between 8.4 million and nearly 11.1 million by 2040. For San Antonio with a population of 1.7 million in 2000 the projected values are between 2.5 million and more than 2.7 million, for Austin-Round Rock with a 2000 population of more than 1.2 million the projected values are from nearly 2.7 million to nearly 3.5 million, for El Paso with a population of nearly 680,000 in 2000 the projected values are about 1.2 million under the 0.5 scenario and 900,000 under the 2000-2004 scenario, and for McAllen-Edinburg-Mission with a population of more than 569,000 in 2000 the projected values are between 1.4 million and nearly 1.6 million. Under either scenario by 2040 Austin-Round Rock is projected to surpass San Antonio to become the third largest metropolitan area and McAllen-Edinburg-Mission's population is projected to surpass El Paso's to make it the fifth largest metropolitan area. One metropolitan area, under the 0.5 scenario, Texarkana, and five under the 2000-2004 scenario, Abilene, Corpus Christi, Lubbock, San Angelo, and Wichita Falls decrease in population size from 2000 to 2040.

Under the 0.5 scenario, the fastest growing metropolitan areas from 2000 to 2040 in percentage terms are Laredo projected to increase by more than 180 percent, McAllen-Edinburg-Mission which increases by more than 152 percent, Austin-Round Rock which is projected to increase by nearly 113 percent, and Brownsville-Harlingen that increases by nearly 102 percent. Under the 2000-2004 scenario, the fastest growing metropolitan area is Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington that increases by nearly 196 percent, Austin-Round Rock and McAllen-Edinburg-Mission that increase by 180 percent, Laredo that increases by more than 148 percent, Houston-Sugar Land-Baytown more than 135 percent, and Tyler with an increase of nearly 120 percent. The lowest rates of growth are in Texarkana, decreasing by 5.7 percent under the 0.5 scenario, and, under the 2000-2004 scenario, Wichita Falls that decreases by 25.4 percent, San Angelo that decreases by 18.9 percent, Abilene that decreases by 7.1 percent, Lubbock that decreases by 1.7 percent, and Corpus Christi that decreases by 0.3 percent.

Overall, these projections suggest that under any of the likely scenarios Texas will have five metropolitan areas with more than one million persons by 2040 and two with more than 8.0 million while at the same time having 8 with less than 200,000 persons. Because the larger metropolitan areas generally show projected patterns of greater relative growth than the State's smallest metropolitan areas, the disparity in size between Texas largest and smallest metropolitan areas increases. In 2000, the range of population from the largest to the smallest metropolitan area was about 5.1 million but, by 2040, that range will be more than 10.0 million under the 0.5 scenario and more than 15.2 million under the 2000-2004 scenario.

Trends in Diversity in Metropolitan Texas

The patterns of diversity in metropolitan centers indicate slow growth or decline in Anglo populations coupled with rapid non-Anglo, particularly Hispanic, population growth (see Table 9). Under the 0.5 scenario, Anglo populations decrease in 18 of 25 metropolitan areas from 2000 to 2040 (the exceptions being Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington, Austin-Round Rock, San Antonio, Killeen-Temple-Fort Hood, Amarillo, College Station-Bryan, and Laredo) while Black, Hispanic and Other populations increase in all 25 metropolitan areas from 2000 to 2040. Similarly, under the 2000-2004 scenario, Anglo populations decline in all metropolitan areas except Dallas-Fort Worth-Arlington and Austin-Round Rock, Black populations decrease only in Beaumont-Port Arthur, Waco, San Angelo, and Brownsville-Harlingen and Hispanic and Other populations increase in all 25 metropolitan areas.

As a result of such patterns, the proportion of the total population that is Anglo decreases in all 25 metropolitan areas from 2000 to 2040 and is less than 50 percent in 19 areas in 2040 under the 0.5 scenario and in all areas under the 2000-2004 scenario (Table 10). By contrast, the proportion of the population that is Hispanic increases from 2000 to 2040 in all 25 metropolitan areas and is greater than 50 percent in 11 areas under the 0.5 scenario and in 16 areas under the 2000-2004 scenario. As for the regions of Texas, diversity is a pervasive pattern across Texas metropolitan areas.

Aging Populations in Metropolitan Areas

As for diversity, the aging of the population is evident in all metropolitan areas in Texas (Table 11). Twenty-three of twenty-five metropolitan areas have older median ages in 2040 than in 2000 under all scenarios. In general, older median ages are evident in slower growing metropolitan areas such as Texarkana with a median age of 45 to 46 years by 2040 and Sherman-Denison with a median age of 41-43 years and youngest in the fastest growing areas in South Texas such as Laredo with a median age of 31 to 33, McAllen-Edinburg-Mission with a median age of 33 to 36, and Brownsville-Harlingen with a median age of 34 to 36. Older population are likely to impact all metropolitan areas in Texas.

County Patterns

Population Change in Counties in Texas

The projections show substantial growth in many Texas counties (Table 12). Under the 0.5 scenario for example, the population of Harris County increases from about 3.4 million in 2000 to more than 5.8 million by 2040, by more than 2.4 million, Dallas County increases from 2.2 million in 2000 to more than 3.9 million in 2040, by more than 1.7 million, Tarrant County increases from 1.4 million in 2000 to 2.4 million by 2040, by more than 992,000, Hidalgo increases from 569,000 in 2000 to more than 1.4 million by 2040, by more than 870,000, Collin grows from nearly 492,000 in 2000 to more than 1.3 million by 2040, by more than 857,000, Denton from nearly 433,000 in 2000 to more than 1.2 million in 2040, by more than 810,000, and Travis, Williamson, Bexar, and El Paso all increase by more than 473,000 between 2000 and 2040. In total under this scenario 211 counties show population increases between 2000 and 2040 and only 43 show population decline. A total of 20 counties show a percentage increases of greater than 100 percent from 2000 to 2040 under the 0.5 scenario with a majority of these counties being suburban counties such as Williamson County with an increase of more than 204 percent, Hays with an increase of nearly 186 percent, and Denton County with an increase of more than 187 percent. Those counties with either slow growth or decline were predominantly rural counties such as Loving County with a projected decrease of more than 37 percent, Kent with a decline of 31 percent, and Motley with a decrease of nearly 26 percent.

Under the 2000-2004 scenario, Harris County's population increases to more than 6.6 million by 2040, an increase of more than 3.2 million from 2000 to 2040, Collin's population increases to nearly 3.3 million, increasing by nearly 2.8 million, Tarrant's to 3.9 million persons by 2040, a 2000 to 2040 increase of nearly 2.5 million, and Denton is projected to increase its population to nearly 2.7 million persons by 2040, an increase of more than 2.2 million persons from 2000 to 2040. Four other counties, Fort Bend, Williamson, Hidalgo, and Montgomery all increase by more than 1.0 million persons from 2000 to 2040 and overall 138 counties show population increases and 116 counties show population decreases from 2000 to 2040. As for the 0.5 scenario, under the 2000-2004 scenario, the largest percentage increases are in suburban counties with declines and slow growth occurring primarily in rural counties. However, the number of declining counties from 2000 to 2040 under the 2000-2004 scenario (116) is more than two and one-half times as large as the number under the 0.5 scenario with two types of counties (rural and West Texas, Panhandle metropolitian) showing markedly different patterns under the two scenarios.

The contrasts between the projections from the 0.5 and the 2000 to 20004 scenario are substantial. For example, a continuation of the 2000 to 2004 patterns will substantially impact the future of numerous Texas counties. Under the 0.5 scenario, the only major changes in the relative size of counties are that El Paso County would drop from being the sixth largest county (that it was in 2000) to the ninth largest and Travis would drop from the fifth to the sixth largest while Hidalgo moves up two ranks, and Collin and Denton each move up one rank in size. Under the 2000-2004 scenario Tarrant and Collin counties growth would be sufficient to make their populations larger than that in Dallas County by 2040. As a result, under the 2000-2004 scenario, Tarrant would become the second largest county by 2040 and Collin the third largest while Dallas would fall to fourth place. Similarly, under the 0.5 scenario, Lubbock increases from 242,628 in 2000 to 291,578 in 2040, a numerical increase of nearly 49,000 while under the 2000-2004 scenario its population decreases by 4,185 persons from 2000 to 2040 to 238,443 persons in 2040. Under the 0.5 scenario, Nueces County increases from 313,645 in 2000 to 454,027, an increase of more than 140,000 but under the 2000-2004 scenario, it decreases to 305,000, a decrease of more than 8,000 people. Clearly such patterns for these areas may change from those projected under the 2000-2004 scenario, but they clearly demonstrate that if 2000 to 2004 patterns are extended into the future, substantial shifts in patterns of population growth will occur.

Trends in Diversity in Texas Counties

Diversity is projected to increase dramatically across nearly all counties in Texas (Tables 12 and 13). In general, the patterns show the largest Anglo population growth in suburban counties but with large non-Anglo, particularly Hispanic, population growth occurring throughout virtually all counties. Thus, the largest percentage increases in Anglo populations under the 0.5 scenario are in Hays County with a 142 percent increase from 2000 to 2040, Williamson with a 141 percent increase, Denton with an increase of nearly 118 percent, and Collin with a nearly 113 percent increase. Under the 2000-2004 scenario, the counties showing the largest increases are Rockwall that increases its Anglo population by more than 664 percent, Hays with an increase of more than 375 percent, Denton with an increase of nearly 262 percent, Williamson with an increase of nearly 252 percent and Collin with an increase of more than 240 percent. What is striking, however, is that in every one of these counties the rate of growth in the Hispanic population is even faster. For example, under the 0.5 scenario, the Hispanic population in Hays County increases by nearly 293 percent from 2000 to 2040, Hispanics in Williamson increase by more than 454 percent and Hispanic population growth in Denton was nearly 535 percent. Similarly, under the 2000-2004 scenario, Hispanic population growth is nearly 4,300 percent in Rockwall, about 764 percent in Hays, and 2,500 percent in Collin. In addition, in many Texas counties Anglo populations will actually decline. Under the 0.5 scenario 166 counties and, under the 2000-2004 scenario, 209 counties show absolute numerical declines in their Anglo populations from 2000 to 2040. On the other hand, for Texas fastest growing population group, Hispanics, growth is pervasive. Under the 0.5 scenario, only 4 counties show declines in their Hispanic population from 2000 to 2040 and under the 2000-2004 scenario only 13 counties show declines in their Hispanic populations.

Trends in Aging in Counties

Texas Counties also show clearly pervasive patterns of aging (Table 14). In 236 counties under the 0.5 scenario and in 215 under the 2000-2004 scenario the 2040 median age is older than that for 2000. Those counties that showed declines in median age are largely rural counties that already had high median ages in 2000. The county with the largest decrease is Llano County that was once the oldest county (in median age terms) in the nation but which, due primarily to growth in non-Anglo populations is projected to show a decline in median age from 53 in 2000 to between 39 and 42 (depending on the scenario) by 2040. In general, the youngest counties in 2040 are the large central city counties that are projected to have high levels of non-Anglo population growth such as Harris with a median age of between 37 and 38 by 2040, Dallas with a median age of 36 to 37 years, and counties in South Texas with large Hispanic populations such as Starr County with a median age of about 31. Older median ages are evident in many rural counties such as Loving County which because of its very small population is projected to have a median age of 77 to 80 by 2040, Concho County with a projected median age of about 62 by 2040, Irion at 55, and Kent with a median age between 56 (under the 0.5 scenario) and 57 years of age (under the 2000-2004 scenario).

Relatively pervasive throughout counties is the substantially older age of Anglos compared to Hispanics, particularly in the early 2000s, and a closing of the differential as the century progresses. In 2000, all counties showed a higher median age for Anglos than for Hispanics while by 2040, 20 counties under the 0.5 scenario, and 36, under the 2000-2004 scenario show an older median age for Hispanics than Anglos. However, substantial differences between Anglo and Hispanic median ages were evident in 2000 and remain so in 2040. For example, in 2000, only Kent County had a median age for Hispanics that exceeded 40 years of age while in 177 counties the median age of Anglos was 40 or greater. In 2040, 54 counties under the 0.5 scenario and 55 counties under the 2000-2004 scenario would have a median age of 40 or greater for Hispanics and 13 and 23 respectively would have a median age for Hispanics that equaled 50 years of age or older but in 237 counties under the 0.5 scenario and 211 under the 2000-2004 scenario Anglos are projected to have a median age of 40 years of age or older and in 48 and 62 respectively the median age for Anglos is projected to be greater than 50 years of age by 2040.

Clearly the extensive diversity in Texas is evident in its counties, from rapidly growing suburban counties particularly in the Dallas-Fort Worth, Houston, Austin, and San Antonio areas to very slow growing and declining counties particularly in the Panhandle and West Texas. Despite such differences in rates of population growth, the growth of diversity and the aging of the population unite Texas counties with patterns likely to create similar demands for both educational services, particularly for their rapidly growing non-Anglo populations, and substantial health care and related services required by their increasingly older populations.

Projection Methodology and Tables