Table 6 - Continued Total Population and Population by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projected Population and Percent Population Change 2000-2040 Under Alternative Assumptions of Age, Sex and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Net Migration for Council of Government Regions in Texas - Ranked by Black Population Size in 2000 ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Change Change Change Change Change %Change %Change %Change %Change %Change Rank for Black Black Black Black Black 2000- 2010- 2020- 2030- 2000- 2000- 2010- 2020- 2030- 2000- Black Region 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2010 2020 2030 2040 2040 2010 2020 2030 2040 2040 ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Assuming Zero Net Migration 1 Houston-Galveston 823,761 888,398 931,372 941,876 925,476 64,637 42,974 10,504 -16,400 101,715 7.8 4.8 1.1 -1.7 12.3 2 North Central Texas 733,657 805,751 854,315 871,265 860,001 72,094 48,564 16,950 -11,264 126,344 9.8 6.0 2.0 -1.3 17.2 3 East Texas 122,190 128,399 132,636 133,670 132,213 6,209 4,237 1,034 -1,457 10,023 5.1 3.3 0.8 -1.1 8.2 4 Alamo Area 110,387 116,580 120,932 121,048 117,866 6,193 4,352 116 -3,182 7,479 5.6 3.7 0.1 -2.6 6.8 5 Capital Area 105,005 114,625 121,131 123,609 121,616 9,620 6,506 2,478 -1,993 16,611 9.2 5.7 2.0 -1.6 15.8 6 South East Texas 95,835 102,097 106,979 108,826 108,741 6,262 4,882 1,847 -85 12,906 6.5 4.8 1.7 -0.1 13.5 7 Central Texas 69,989 80,905 89,920 97,196 101,850 10,916 9,015 7,276 4,654 31,861 15.6 11.1 8.1 4.8 45.5 8 Deep East Texas 58,721 63,287 66,855 68,493 69,180 4,566 3,568 1,638 687 10,459 7.8 5.6 2.5 1.0 17.8 9 Heart of Texas 48,260 51,750 54,288 55,315 55,130 3,490 2,538 1,027 -185 6,870 7.2 4.9 1.9 -0.3 14.2 10 Ark-Tex 45,866 48,979 51,408 52,040 51,619 3,113 2,429 632 -421 5,753 6.8 5.0 1.2 -0.8 12.5 11 Brazos Valley 37,734 41,691 44,720 46,432 47,655 3,957 3,029 1,712 1,223 9,921 10.5 7.3 3.8 2.6 26.3 12 South Plains 24,546 26,888 28,652 29,594 29,870 2,342 1,764 942 276 5,324 9.5 6.6 3.3 0.9 21.7 13 Coastal Bend 20,925 22,226 23,308 23,759 23,557 1,301 1,082 451 -202 2,632 6.2 4.9 1.9 -0.9 12.6 14 Rio Grande 20,062 22,741 24,622 25,528 25,819 2,679 1,881 906 291 5,757 13.4 8.3 3.7 1.1 28.7 15 Panhandle 18,996 20,565 22,274 23,365 23,910 1,569 1,709 1,091 545 4,914 8.3 8.3 4.9 2.3 25.9 16 Permian Basin 18,795 20,290 21,418 22,232 22,549 1,495 1,128 814 317 3,754 8.0 5.6 3.8 1.4 20.0 17 West Central Texas 17,648 18,916 20,034 20,564 20,546 1,268 1,118 530 -18 2,898 7.2 5.9 2.6 -0.1 16.4 18 Nortex 16,641 18,033 19,337 20,300 20,857 1,392 1,304 963 557 4,216 8.4 7.2 5.0 2.7 25.3 19 Golden Crescent 12,321 13,361 14,189 14,629 14,824 1,040 828 440 195 2,503 8.4 6.2 3.1 1.3 20.3 20 Texoma 10,487 11,278 11,991 12,510 12,644 791 713 519 134 2,157 7.5 6.3 4.3 1.1 20.6 21 Concho Valley 4,825 5,142 5,294 5,297 5,200 317 152 3 -97 375 6.6 3.0 0.1 -1.8 7.8 22 Lower Rio Grande Valley 3,453 3,767 4,037 4,072 3,955 314 270 35 -117 502 9.1 7.2 0.9 -2.9 14.5 23 Middle Rio Grande 1,173 1,209 1,251 1,229 1,154 36 42 -22 -75 -19 3.1 3.5 -1.8 -6.1 -1.6 24 South Texas 376 398 424 431 397 22 26 7 -34 21 5.9 6.5 1.7 -7.9 5.6 Assuming Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 1 Houston-Galveston 823,761 924,344 1,008,449 1,060,312 1,082,493 100,583 84,105 51,863 22,181 258,732 12.2 9.1 5.1 2.1 31.4 2 North Central Texas 733,657 862,631 983,341 1,082,197 1,155,488 128,974 120,710 98,856 73,291 421,831 17.6 14.0 10.1 6.8 57.5 3 East Texas 122,190 130,897 137,490 140,360 139,913 8,707 6,593 2,870 -447 17,723 7.1 5.0 2.1 -0.3 14.5 4 Alamo Area 110,387 122,897 134,316 141,549 144,698 12,510 11,419 7,233 3,149 34,311 11.3 9.3 5.4 2.2 31.1 5 Capital Area 105,005 125,256 145,399 163,704 178,756 20,251 20,143 18,305 15,052 73,751 19.3 16.1 12.6 9.2 70.2 6 South East Texas 95,835 104,364 111,579 115,611 117,028 8,529 7,215 4,032 1,417 21,193 8.9 6.9 3.6 1.2 22.1 7 Central Texas 69,989 87,989 106,154 123,035 137,372 18,000 18,165 16,881 14,337 67,383 25.7 20.6 15.9 11.7 96.3 8 Deep East Texas 58,721 64,541 69,279 71,801 72,890 5,820 4,738 2,522 1,089 14,169 9.9 7.3 3.6 1.5 24.1 9 Heart of Texas 48,260 52,960 56,807 58,786 59,360 4,700 3,847 1,979 574 11,100 9.7 7.3 3.5 1.0 23.0 10 Ark-Tex 45,866 49,563 52,636 53,639 53,221 3,697 3,073 1,003 -418 7,355 8.1 6.2 1.9 -0.8 16.0 11 Brazos Valley 37,734 42,487 46,380 49,021 50,995 4,753 3,893 2,641 1,974 13,261 12.6 9.2 5.7 4.0 35.1 12 South Plains 24,546 27,338 29,509 30,808 31,317 2,792 2,171 1,299 509 6,771 11.4 7.9 4.4 1.7 27.6 13 Coastal Bend 20,925 22,802 24,522 25,604 25,830 1,877 1,720 1,082 226 4,905 9.0 7.5 4.4 0.9 23.4 14 Rio Grande 20,062 22,402 23,858 24,162 23,844 2,340 1,456 304 -318 3,782 11.7 6.5 1.3 -1.3 18.9 15 Panhandle 18,996 20,923 23,039 24,589 25,532 1,927 2,116 1,550 943 6,536 10.1 10.1 6.7 3.8 34.4 16 Permian Basin 18,795 20,285 21,348 22,001 22,011 1,490 1,063 653 10 3,216 7.9 5.2 3.1 0.0 17.1 17 West Central Texas 17,648 19,418 21,083 22,139 22,565 1,770 1,665 1,056 426 4,917 10.0 8.6 5.0 1.9 27.9 18 Nortex 16,641 18,291 19,863 21,025 21,768 1,650 1,572 1,162 743 5,127 9.9 8.6 5.9 3.5 30.8 19 Golden Crescent 12,321 13,478 14,322 14,853 15,056 1,157 844 531 203 2,735 9.4 6.3 3.7 1.4 22.2 20 Texoma 10,487 11,308 11,970 12,426 12,506 821 662 456 80 2,019 7.8 5.9 3.8 0.6 19.3 21 Concho Valley 4,825 5,182 5,355 5,368 5,214 357 173 13 -154 389 7.4 3.3 0.2 -2.9 8.1 22 Lower Rio Grande Valley 3,453 3,780 4,031 3,991 3,818 327 251 -40 -173 365 9.5 6.6 -1.0 -4.3 10.6 23 Middle Rio Grande 1,173 1,210 1,250 1,220 1,120 37 40 -30 -100 -53 3.2 3.3 -2.4 -8.2 -4.5 24 South Texas 376 398 421 415 374 22 23 -6 -41 -2 5.9 5.8 -1.4 -9.9 -0.5 Assuming Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 1 Houston-Galveston 823,761 961,499 1,088,833 1,185,013 1,246,888 137,738 127,334 96,180 61,875 423,127 16.7 13.2 8.8 5.2 51.4 2 North Central Texas 733,657 921,358 1,132,626 1,354,550 1,584,161 187,701 211,268 221,924 229,611 850,504 25.6 22.9 19.6 17.0 115.9 3 East Texas 122,190 132,887 139,985 141,122 135,164 10,697 7,098 1,137 -5,958 12,974 8.8 5.3 0.8 -4.2 10.6 4 Alamo Area 110,387 129,129 147,271 160,129 166,270 18,742 18,142 12,858 6,141 55,883 17.0 14.0 8.7 3.8 50.6 5 Capital Area 105,005 137,388 176,941 222,453 275,461 32,383 39,553 45,512 53,008 170,456 30.8 28.8 25.7 23.8 162.3 6 South East Texas 95,835 105,845 113,821 116,642 114,428 10,010 7,976 2,821 -2,214 18,593 10.4 7.5 2.5 -1.9 19.4 7 Central Texas 69,989 95,679 124,140 151,528 174,140 25,690 28,461 27,388 22,612 104,151 36.7 29.7 22.1 14.9 148.8 8 Deep East Texas 58,721 66,135 71,393 73,605 72,033 7,414 5,258 2,212 -1,572 13,312 12.6 8.0 3.1 -2.1 22.7 9 Heart of Texas 48,260 54,179 58,476 60,093 58,952 5,919 4,297 1,617 -1,141 10,692 12.3 7.9 2.8 -1.9 22.2 10 Ark-Tex 45,866 50,349 53,339 53,503 51,054 4,483 2,990 164 -2,449 5,188 9.8 5.9 0.3 -4.6 11.3 11 Brazos Valley 37,734 43,717 48,289 50,994 51,197 5,983 4,572 2,705 203 13,463 15.9 10.5 5.6 0.4 35.7 12 South Plains 24,546 27,955 30,595 31,840 31,400 3,409 2,640 1,245 -440 6,854 13.9 9.4 4.1 -1.4 27.9 13 Coastal Bend 20,925 23,679 26,455 28,324 29,061 2,754 2,776 1,869 737 8,136 13.2 11.7 7.1 2.6 38.9 14 Rio Grande 20,062 21,590 21,949 20,862 18,985 1,528 359 -1,087 -1,877 -1,077 7.6 1.7 -5.0 -9.0 -5.4 15 Panhandle 18,996 21,707 24,580 26,556 27,355 2,711 2,873 1,976 799 8,359 14.3 13.2 8.0 3.0 44.0 16 Permian Basin 18,795 20,421 21,324 21,468 20,418 1,626 903 144 -1,050 1,623 8.7 4.4 0.7 -4.9 8.6 17 West Central Texas 17,648 20,082 22,259 23,344 23,196 2,434 2,177 1,085 -148 5,548 13.8 10.8 4.9 -0.6 31.4 18 Nortex 16,641 18,501 20,233 21,306 21,295 1,860 1,732 1,073 -11 4,654 11.2 9.4 5.3 -0.1 28.0 19 Golden Crescent 12,321 13,923 15,161 15,796 15,628 1,602 1,238 635 -168 3,307 13.0 8.9 4.2 -1.1 26.8 20 Texoma 10,487 11,555 12,454 12,870 12,563 1,068 899 416 -307 2,076 10.2 7.8 3.3 -2.4 19.8 21 Concho Valley 4,825 5,297 5,553 5,572 5,302 472 256 19 -270 477 9.8 4.8 0.3 -4.8 9.9 22 Lower Rio Grande Valley 3,453 3,900 4,250 4,361 4,187 447 350 111 -174 734 12.9 9.0 2.6 -4.0 21.3 23 Middle Rio Grande 1,173 1,275 1,365 1,358 1,206 102 90 -7 -152 33 8.7 7.1 -0.5 -11.2 2.8 24 South Texas 376 398 408 384 329 22 10 -24 -55 -47 5.9 2.5 -5.9 -14.3 -12.5 Assuming Net Migration Equal to 2000-2004 1 Houston-Galveston 823,761 936,768 1,033,685 1,095,183 1,125,369 113,007 96,917 61,498 30,186 301,608 13.7 10.3 5.9 2.8 36.6 2 North Central Texas 733,657 865,277 1,009,405 1,160,425 1,314,474 131,620 144,128 151,020 154,049 580,817 17.9 16.7 15.0 13.3 79.2 3 East Texas 122,190 132,275 137,721 135,166 124,802 10,085 5,446 -2,555 -10,364 2,612 8.3 4.1 -1.9 -7.7 2.1 4 Alamo Area 110,387 129,119 145,381 154,133 153,540 18,732 16,262 8,752 -593 43,153 17.0 12.6 6.0 -0.4 39.1 5 Capital Area 105,005 129,913 157,585 187,970 220,655 24,908 27,672 30,385 32,685 115,650 23.7 21.3 19.3 17.4 110.1 6 South East Texas 95,835 100,727 101,963 97,424 87,970 4,892 1,236 -4,539 -9,454 -7,865 5.1 1.2 -4.5 -9.7 -8.2 7 Central Texas 69,989 84,701 95,696 100,533 98,379 14,712 10,995 4,837 -2,154 28,390 21.0 13.0 5.1 -2.1 40.6 8 Deep East Texas 58,721 64,978 68,713 68,318 64,146 6,257 3,735 -395 -4,172 5,425 10.7 5.7 -0.6 -6.1 9.2 9 Heart of Texas 48,260 52,624 54,777 53,672 49,415 4,364 2,153 -1,105 -4,257 1,155 9.0 4.1 -2.0 -7.9 2.4 10 Ark-Tex 45,866 51,719 56,230 57,289 54,296 5,853 4,511 1,059 -2,993 8,430 12.8 8.7 1.9 -5.2 18.4 11 Brazos Valley 37,734 42,600 45,608 45,763 43,511 4,866 3,008 155 -2,252 5,777 12.9 7.1 0.3 -4.9 15.3 12 South Plains 24,546 26,945 28,121 27,574 25,200 2,399 1,176 -547 -2,374 654 9.8 4.4 -1.9 -8.6 2.7 13 Coastal Bend 20,925 22,651 23,694 23,450 21,951 1,726 1,043 -244 -1,499 1,026 8.2 4.6 -1.0 -6.4 4.9 14 Rio Grande 20,062 22,537 23,640 22,991 21,115 2,475 1,103 -649 -1,876 1,053 12.3 4.9 -2.7 -8.2 5.2 15 Panhandle 18,996 20,986 22,734 23,255 22,158 1,990 1,748 521 -1,097 3,162 10.5 8.3 2.3 -4.7 16.6 16 Permian Basin 18,795 20,648 21,818 21,740 20,214 1,853 1,170 -78 -1,526 1,419 9.9 5.7 -0.4 -7.0 7.5 17 West Central Texas 17,648 19,785 21,496 21,825 20,839 2,137 1,711 329 -986 3,191 12.1 8.6 1.5 -4.5 18.1 18 Nortex 16,641 17,847 18,437 18,154 16,766 1,206 590 -283 -1,388 125 7.2 3.3 -1.5 -7.6 0.8 19 Golden Crescent 12,321 13,854 15,125 15,466 15,040 1,533 1,271 341 -426 2,719 12.4 9.2 2.3 -2.8 22.1 20 Texoma 10,487 11,916 13,199 14,027 14,094 1,429 1,283 828 67 3,607 13.6 10.8 6.3 0.5 34.4 21 Concho Valley 4,825 5,127 5,175 4,903 4,348 302 48 -272 -555 -477 6.3 0.9 -5.3 -11.3 -9.9 22 Lower Rio Grande Valley 3,453 3,905 4,317 4,308 3,942 452 412 -9 -366 489 13.1 10.6 -0.2 -8.5 14.2 23 Middle Rio Grande 1,173 1,221 1,299 1,260 1,111 48 78 -39 -149 -62 4.1 6.4 -3.0 -11.8 -5.3 24 South Texas 376 405 454 515 443 29 49 61 -72 67 7.7 12.1 13.4 -14.0 17.8 ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________