Table 6 Total Population and Population by Race/Ethnicity in 2000 and Projected Population and Percent Population Change 2000-2040 Under Alternative Assumptions of Age, Sex and Race/Ethnicity-Specific Net Migration for Council of Government Regions in Texas - Ranked by Total Population Size in 2000 ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Change Change Change Change Change %Change %Change %Change %Change %Change Rank for Total Total Total Total Total 2000- 2010- 2020- 2030- 2000- 2000- 2010- 2020- 2030- 2000- Total Region 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2010 2020 2030 2040 2040 2010 2020 2030 2040 2040 ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ Assuming Zero Net Migration 1 North Central Texas 5,309,277 5,837,577 6,211,282 6,469,860 6,560,754 528,300 373,705 258,578 90,894 1,251,477 10.0 6.4 4.2 1.4 23.6 2 Houston-Galveston 4,854,454 5,314,457 5,662,967 5,892,174 5,968,684 460,003 348,510 229,207 76,510 1,114,230 9.5 6.6 4.0 1.3 23.0 3 Alamo Area 1,807,868 1,954,328 2,066,212 2,135,949 2,160,839 146,460 111,884 69,737 24,890 352,971 8.1 5.7 3.4 1.2 19.5 4 Capital Area 1,346,833 1,472,256 1,557,941 1,614,990 1,629,495 125,423 85,685 57,049 14,505 282,662 9.3 5.8 3.7 0.9 21.0 5 Lower Rio Grande Valley 924,772 1,109,349 1,285,918 1,467,301 1,652,546 184,577 176,569 181,383 185,245 727,774 20.0 15.9 14.1 12.6 78.7 6 East Texas 745,180 770,676 789,896 796,137 796,496 25,496 19,220 6,241 359 51,316 3.4 2.5 0.8 0.0 6.9 7 Rio Grande 704,318 809,724 901,980 982,831 1,052,861 105,406 92,256 80,851 70,030 348,543 15.0 11.4 9.0 7.1 49.5 8 Coastal Bend 549,012 597,791 635,474 660,842 675,888 48,779 37,683 25,368 15,046 126,876 8.9 6.3 4.0 2.3 23.1 9 Panhandle 402,862 431,382 457,172 476,017 489,480 28,520 25,790 18,845 13,463 86,618 7.1 6.0 4.1 2.8 21.5 10 South East Texas 385,090 400,712 409,876 410,519 404,444 15,622 9,164 643 -6,075 19,354 4.1 2.3 0.2 -1.5 5.0 11 South Plains 377,871 411,316 434,998 451,655 463,246 33,445 23,682 16,657 11,591 85,375 8.9 5.8 3.8 2.6 22.6 12 Permian Basin 376,672 411,378 442,751 465,376 482,894 34,706 31,373 22,625 17,518 106,222 9.2 7.6 5.1 3.8 28.2 13 Central Texas 374,518 413,808 443,573 469,232 486,463 39,290 29,765 25,659 17,231 111,945 10.5 7.2 5.8 3.7 29.9 14 Deep East Texas 355,862 366,339 375,441 379,584 381,838 10,477 9,102 4,143 2,254 25,976 2.9 2.5 1.1 0.6 7.3 15 West Central Texas 324,901 338,593 349,944 354,777 357,227 13,692 11,351 4,833 2,450 32,326 4.2 3.4 1.4 0.7 9.9 16 Heart of Texas 321,536 334,649 345,988 351,628 353,027 13,113 11,339 5,640 1,399 31,491 4.1 3.4 1.6 0.4 9.8 17 Ark-Tex 270,468 278,095 284,173 284,559 281,534 7,627 6,078 386 -3,025 11,066 2.8 2.2 0.1 -1.1 4.1 18 Brazos Valley 267,085 280,972 294,494 303,505 309,484 13,887 13,522 9,011 5,979 42,399 5.2 4.8 3.1 2.0 15.9 19 South Texas 264,177 326,495 387,449 454,702 526,100 62,318 60,954 67,253 71,398 261,923 23.6 18.7 17.4 15.7 99.1 20 Nortex 224,366 232,616 239,481 242,556 242,800 8,250 6,865 3,075 244 18,434 3.7 3.0 1.3 0.1 8.2 21 Golden Crescent 183,905 195,960 207,593 215,647 222,012 12,055 11,633 8,054 6,365 38,107 6.6 5.9 3.9 3.0 20.7 22 Texoma 178,200 183,354 187,911 188,738 187,506 5,154 4,557 827 -1,232 9,306 2.9 2.5 0.4 -0.7 5.2 23 Middle Rio Grande 154,381 175,161 196,456 216,207 234,887 20,780 21,295 19,751 18,680 80,506 13.5 12.2 10.1 8.6 52.1 24 Concho Valley 148,212 155,959 161,715 164,274 164,565 7,747 5,756 2,559 291 16,353 5.2 3.7 1.6 0.2 11.0 Assuming Net Migration Equal to One-Half of 1990-2000 1 North Central Texas 5,309,277 6,366,301 7,531,686 8,862,464 10,343,280 1,057,024 1,165,385 1,330,778 1,480,816 5,034,003 19.9 18.3 17.7 16.7 94.8 2 Houston-Galveston 4,854,454 5,695,773 6,604,151 7,567,180 8,567,605 841,319 908,378 963,029 1,000,425 3,713,151 17.3 15.9 14.6 13.2 76.5 3 Alamo Area 1,807,868 2,056,211 2,290,225 2,486,954 2,634,171 248,343 234,014 196,729 147,217 826,303 13.7 11.4 8.6 5.9 45.7 4 Capital Area 1,346,833 1,673,921 2,026,139 2,413,872 2,819,221 327,088 352,218 387,733 405,349 1,472,388 24.3 21.0 19.1 16.8 109.3 5 Lower Rio Grande Valley 924,772 1,191,220 1,484,925 1,804,783 2,145,725 266,448 293,705 319,858 340,942 1,220,953 28.8 24.7 21.5 18.9 132.0 6 East Texas 745,180 813,338 884,542 949,424 1,015,647 68,158 71,204 64,882 66,223 270,467 9.1 8.8 7.3 7.0 36.3 7 Rio Grande 704,318 832,400 960,013 1,076,641 1,185,393 128,082 127,613 116,628 108,752 481,075 18.2 15.3 12.1 10.1 68.3 8 Coastal Bend 549,012 622,517 690,577 746,700 791,864 73,505 68,060 56,123 45,164 242,852 13.4 10.9 8.1 6.0 44.2 9 Panhandle 402,862 443,452 483,820 518,248 546,272 40,590 40,368 34,428 28,024 143,410 10.1 9.1 7.1 5.4 35.6 10 South East Texas 385,090 406,144 425,444 441,439 455,531 21,054 19,300 15,995 14,092 70,441 5.5 4.8 3.8 3.2 18.3 11 South Plains 377,871 412,098 435,867 451,424 460,217 34,227 23,769 15,557 8,793 82,346 9.1 5.8 3.6 1.9 21.8 12 Permian Basin 376,672 407,746 436,309 456,524 471,434 31,074 28,563 20,215 14,910 94,762 8.2 7.0 4.6 3.3 25.2 13 Central Texas 374,518 437,531 497,697 555,854 606,634 63,013 60,166 58,157 50,780 232,116 16.8 13.8 11.7 9.1 62.0 14 Deep East Texas 355,862 388,229 420,611 446,291 466,944 32,367 32,382 25,680 20,653 111,082 9.1 8.3 6.1 4.6 31.2 15 West Central Texas 324,901 341,044 353,179 356,569 354,697 16,143 12,135 3,390 -1,872 29,796 5.0 3.6 1.0 -0.5 9.2 16 Heart of Texas 321,536 349,194 379,701 406,056 431,015 27,658 30,507 26,355 24,959 109,479 8.6 8.7 6.9 6.1 34.0 17 Ark-Tex 270,468 281,031 289,372 289,843 284,358 10,563 8,341 471 -5,485 13,890 3.9 3.0 0.2 -1.9 5.1 18 Brazos Valley 267,085 298,260 330,842 358,620 380,703 31,175 32,582 27,778 22,083 113,618 11.7 10.9 8.4 6.2 42.5 19 South Texas 264,177 350,961 448,103 559,161 684,159 86,784 97,142 111,058 124,998 419,982 32.9 27.7 24.8 22.4 159.0 20 Nortex 224,366 235,031 244,435 249,115 249,845 10,665 9,404 4,680 730 25,479 4.8 4.0 1.9 0.3 11.4 21 Golden Crescent 183,905 200,429 216,489 228,563 237,367 16,524 16,060 12,074 8,804 53,462 9.0 8.0 5.6 3.9 29.1 22 Texoma 178,200 190,959 203,829 212,941 219,319 12,759 12,870 9,112 6,378 41,119 7.2 6.7 4.5 3.0 23.1 23 Middle Rio Grande 154,381 179,033 203,013 224,409 242,517 24,652 23,980 21,396 18,108 88,136 16.0 13.4 10.5 8.1 57.1 24 Concho Valley 148,212 157,789 164,819 167,514 167,283 9,577 7,030 2,695 -231 19,071 6.5 4.5 1.6 -0.1 12.9 Assuming Net Migration Equal to 1990-2000 1 North Central Texas 5,309,277 6,991,408 9,388,821 12,804,992 17,600,161 1,682,131 2,397,413 3,416,171 4,795,169 12,290,884 31.7 34.3 36.4 37.4 231.5 2 Houston-Galveston 4,854,454 6,149,043 7,908,493 10,163,829 13,029,016 1,294,589 1,759,450 2,255,336 2,865,187 8,174,562 26.7 28.6 28.5 28.2 168.4 3 Alamo Area 1,807,868 2,162,128 2,531,802 2,880,323 3,177,498 354,260 369,674 348,521 297,175 1,369,630 19.6 17.1 13.8 10.3 75.8 4 Capital Area 1,346,833 1,909,585 2,658,718 3,656,285 4,959,827 562,752 749,133 997,567 1,303,542 3,612,994 41.8 39.2 37.5 35.7 268.3 5 Lower Rio Grande Valley 924,772 1,273,663 1,681,183 2,131,425 2,596,071 348,891 407,520 450,242 464,646 1,671,299 37.7 32.0 26.8 21.8 180.7 6 East Texas 745,180 857,047 990,425 1,143,010 1,338,927 111,867 133,378 152,585 195,917 593,747 15.0 15.6 15.4 17.1 79.7 7 Rio Grande 704,318 853,986 1,014,137 1,152,863 1,270,744 149,668 160,151 138,726 117,881 566,426 21.3 18.8 13.7 10.2 80.4 8 Coastal Bend 549,012 646,228 742,427 822,859 887,306 97,216 96,199 80,432 64,447 338,294 17.7 14.9 10.8 7.8 61.6 9 Panhandle 402,862 456,007 509,943 560,536 605,579 53,145 53,936 50,593 45,043 202,717 13.2 11.8 9.9 8.0 50.3 10 South East Texas 385,090 410,527 443,592 489,812 558,476 25,437 33,065 46,220 68,664 173,386 6.6 8.1 10.4 14.0 45.0 11 South Plains 377,871 410,415 426,690 430,048 421,556 32,544 16,275 3,358 -8,492 43,685 8.6 4.0 0.8 -2.0 11.6 12 Permian Basin 376,672 400,122 420,090 431,045 434,924 23,450 19,968 10,955 3,879 58,252 6.2 5.0 2.6 0.9 15.5 13 Central Texas 374,518 463,153 558,997 660,997 764,111 88,635 95,844 102,000 103,114 389,593 23.7 20.7 18.2 15.6 104.0 14 Deep East Texas 355,862 412,172 470,034 518,460 555,394 56,310 57,862 48,426 36,934 199,532 15.8 14.0 10.3 7.1 56.1 15 West Central Texas 324,901 342,053 349,076 341,896 324,229 17,152 7,023 -7,180 -17,667 -672 5.3 2.1 -2.1 -5.2 -0.2 16 Heart of Texas 321,536 364,237 415,962 467,738 525,446 42,701 51,725 51,776 57,708 203,910 13.3 14.2 12.4 12.3 63.4 17 Ark-Tex 270,468 283,159 289,685 284,429 269,791 12,691 6,526 -5,256 -14,638 -677 4.7 2.3 -1.8 -5.1 -0.3 18 Brazos Valley 267,085 316,522 367,198 409,214 436,937 49,437 50,676 42,016 27,723 169,852 18.5 16.0 11.4 6.8 63.6 19 South Texas 264,177 376,210 510,595 661,904 826,837 112,033 134,385 151,309 164,933 562,660 42.4 35.7 29.6 24.9 213.0 20 Nortex 224,366 236,398 245,697 248,867 247,195 12,032 9,299 3,170 -1,672 22,829 5.4 3.9 1.3 -0.7 10.2 21 Golden Crescent 183,905 204,622 223,456 235,635 240,722 20,717 18,834 12,179 5,087 56,817 11.3 9.2 5.5 2.2 30.9 22 Texoma 178,200 198,449 218,238 233,034 245,099 20,249 19,789 14,796 12,065 66,899 11.4 10.0 6.8 5.2 37.5 23 Middle Rio Grande 154,381 181,426 203,660 219,391 226,102 27,045 22,234 15,731 6,711 71,721 17.5 12.3 7.7 3.1 46.5 24 Concho Valley 148,212 160,005 167,774 169,032 165,552 11,793 7,769 1,258 -3,480 17,340 8.0 4.9 0.7 -2.1 11.7 Assuming Net Migration Equal to 2000-2004 1 North Central Texas 5,309,277 6,745,706 8,771,613 11,634,090 15,585,148 1,436,429 2,025,907 2,862,477 3,951,058 10,275,871 27.1 30.0 32.6 34.0 193.5 2 Houston-Galveston 4,854,454 5,998,234 7,474,214 9,221,107 11,241,555 1,143,780 1,475,980 1,746,893 2,020,448 6,387,101 23.6 24.6 23.4 21.9 131.6 3 Alamo Area 1,807,868 2,137,387 2,451,029 2,701,849 2,860,424 329,519 313,642 250,820 158,575 1,052,556 18.2 14.7 10.2 5.9 58.2 4 Capital Area 1,346,833 1,773,130 2,293,652 2,928,070 3,666,022 426,297 520,522 634,418 737,952 2,319,189 31.7 29.4 27.7 25.2 172.2 5 Lower Rio Grande Valley 924,772 1,239,401 1,578,586 1,916,445 2,213,781 314,629 339,185 337,859 297,336 1,289,009 34.0 27.4 21.4 15.5 139.4 6 East Texas 745,180 826,008 915,746 1,011,272 1,133,814 80,828 89,738 95,526 122,542 388,634 10.8 10.9 10.4 12.1 52.2 7 Rio Grande 704,318 802,863 882,688 923,269 930,764 98,545 79,825 40,581 7,495 226,446 14.0 9.9 4.6 0.8 32.2 8 Coastal Bend 549,012 583,165 596,701 582,023 545,241 34,153 13,536 -14,678 -36,782 -3,771 6.2 2.3 -2.5 -6.3 -0.7 9 Panhandle 402,862 433,403 453,576 459,410 450,644 30,541 20,173 5,834 -8,766 47,782 7.6 4.7 1.3 -1.9 11.9 10 South East Texas 385,090 391,763 399,873 412,194 433,022 6,673 8,110 12,321 20,828 47,932 1.7 2.1 3.1 5.1 12.4 11 South Plains 377,871 403,480 408,964 396,265 369,600 25,609 5,484 -12,699 -26,665 -8,271 6.8 1.4 -3.1 -6.7 -2.2 12 Permian Basin 376,672 403,619 423,867 430,400 425,763 26,947 20,248 6,533 -4,637 49,091 7.2 5.0 1.5 -1.1 13.0 13 Central Texas 374,518 414,587 440,941 455,336 456,188 40,069 26,354 14,395 852 81,670 10.7 6.4 3.3 0.2 21.8 14 Deep East Texas 355,862 386,871 411,303 420,149 415,678 31,009 24,432 8,846 -4,471 59,816 8.7 6.3 2.2 -1.1 16.8 15 West Central Texas 324,901 337,028 336,284 318,936 294,121 12,127 -744 -17,348 -24,815 -30,780 3.7 -0.2 -5.2 -7.8 -9.5 16 Heart of Texas 321,536 348,434 378,106 400,902 420,281 26,898 29,672 22,796 19,379 98,745 8.4 8.5 6.0 4.8 30.7 17 Ark-Tex 270,468 286,196 294,537 289,769 273,872 15,728 8,341 -4,768 -15,897 3,404 5.8 2.9 -1.6 -5.5 1.3 18 Brazos Valley 267,085 297,977 322,957 333,661 329,086 30,892 24,980 10,704 -4,575 62,001 11.6 8.4 3.3 -1.4 23.2 19 South Texas 264,177 355,215 447,907 536,380 614,967 91,038 92,692 88,473 78,587 350,790 34.5 26.1 19.8 14.7 132.8 20 Nortex 224,366 221,146 212,844 197,169 176,282 -3,220 -8,302 -15,675 -20,887 -48,084 -1.4 -3.8 -7.4 -10.6 -21.4 21 Golden Crescent 183,905 195,207 201,976 200,040 190,603 11,302 6,769 -1,936 -9,437 6,698 6.1 3.5 -1.0 -4.7 3.6 22 Texoma 178,200 200,234 221,343 236,897 248,646 22,034 21,109 15,554 11,749 70,446 12.4 10.5 7.0 5.0 39.5 23 Middle Rio Grande 154,381 173,488 185,467 188,630 182,120 19,107 11,979 3,163 -6,510 27,739 12.4 6.9 1.7 -3.5 18.0 24 Concho Valley 148,212 151,104 148,365 138,617 124,306 2,892 -2,739 -9,748 -14,311 -23,906 2.0 -1.8 -6.6 -10.3 -16.1 ________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________